Big Bear

..Who is Roger J Smith and can you send a link to this prediction for Russian HP pushing West towards Greenland in 1st half of January 2007..? We have not seen such pressure behaviour at a northerly latitude for over 10 years in winter.

Thanks TWS for all those pointers towards blocking scenarios. My fingers are crossed for 1991 style easterly. I know the chances are slim but the way recent winters have been I'd take a northerly outbreak at any chance. BB

Thanks Ben & Ian What do we need to look for with regards to precursors/ suggestions that high latitude blocking may occur in the days leading up to such an event?? Are there any obvious hallmarks in pressure patterns or weather changes that lead to HP situated to our north & east?? Thanks again BB That question also directed to BFTP or anyone else..

Yup. You're always going to get patterns, even from rolling dice. Matching them really is dancing with the devil and has about as much (or less) use as folklore.

Personally I like that NAO forecast. I see a moderate to strong suggestion of Scandy blocking and an Easterly development into Germany, Northern France & the South East quarter of England. Precipitation values look pretty good considering how dry & fruitless imported easterlies have been in recent years. I see the well above average temperature & rainfall certainties over Greece & Turkey as very encouraging. This suggests a southerly tracking jet and again, blocking the the north & east of UK. Recent winters have seen Bartlett highs & Greece etc. stealing the cold air from Russia because of the 'wrong type' of HP positioning over central Europe. As for our current mild September 'ruining' chances of a decent winter, and those already in straw clutching mode with regards to pattern matching a mild & dry October... I can only insinuate your faith (or lack of) being ill placed. Looking forward to the Met Office forecast issued this Thursday. I expect their NAO predictions to mirror those at UCL and backing down from their original strongly positive anomoly suggestion, although still favouring mild.

Well I remember 1921 that was far worse than 1935 by a long shot. All roads were closed and the English Channel froze solid. We had a record number of French illegal immigrants that year. On the serious side, I'm going for a highly mobile, zonal first half of winter leading to a cold or perhaps very cold end to January, still with zonal wet conditions and high snowfall for many. The west will be lucky this winter. The east will be much dryer.

Cheers paul maybe there will be some kind of time lag though? Last winter was the coldest in years wasn't it? perhaps it signals the start of a downward trend. Maybe these things are more complex & take more understanding than meets the eye. Talking of 1947, heres my one of my favourite charts of all time: http://www.weathercharts.org/synoptic_chart_31Jan1947.jpg And just to wet the taste buds, some juicy archive info from the met office: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/education/sec...nts/winter.html Cheers paul maybe there will be some kind of time lag though? Last winter was the coldest in years wasn't it? perhaps it signals the start of a downward trend. Maybe these things are more complex & take more understanding than meets the eye. Talking of 1947, heres my one of my favourite charts of all time: http://www.weathercharts.org/synoptic_chart_31Jan1947.jpg And just to wet the taste buds, some juicy archive info from the met office: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/education/sec...nts/winter.html

Not only is the northern hemisphere much cloudyer than normal, we peak at a solar minimum now AND there is brand new evidence that the global ocean mean temperature dropped suddenly by 20% between 2003 & 2005. This may not have had enough time to affect last winter but could it perhaps knocking on our doors come December? Details here: http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/opini...cle_1245606.php

I really don't think an average to high September CET means, "right, thats it - Winters written off" It's a case of roll the dice come December and see what pans out.

As predicted, way back in November, my expectations of a mega-freeze for the UK look to hold true and the necessary conditions & sypnotics for this major cold/ snow event are beginning to fall in place. You may think I am just referring to the current GFS model at long range but this is just a pre cursor on the side lines in comparison to my usual methods and calculations in long range forecasting. Expect the models to remain all over the place, proving pretty much useless in relation to the late January freeze for at least another week. I see a lot of pointless debate and rollercoaster-ride emtions among the amatuers in other forums at this point. Those who anchor their hopes from run to run are but fools in the hope of that lottery FI chart might stick to its guns. What is worth taking from the GFS at this point is the consistent high pressure blocking over Scandinavia which is bringing our current cold snap, which is a weak affair. By this time next week weather watchers will probably be laughing in my face as a zonal influece brings mild & wetter conditions to the large part of West & North UK. This however will be shortlived and the dryer conditions return around mid month before the almighty Greenland high pressure asserts is power and a block forms out of this over Iceland. At the same time a very cold pool over Russia & Scandy is sucked down to our shores by strong Low Pressure cell/s to our North East. Snow will probably be falling almost everywhere at some point in the last week of January, as a long lasting North Easterly (and later perhaps an easterly) brings a proper cold spell over us for at least 5 days. Watch this space, Regards BB

Despite the early cold forecasts and warnings from the likes of the Met Office, other professionals and media hype like this: www.bbc.co.uk/scienc... I am predicting a winter slightly above average for 2005/06 December will start mainly dry and warm. The middle of the month will see bands of rain sweeping in from the south west as zonality returns to govern the next 3 months. Christmas will be very green indeed with some very mild temperatures, perhaps record breaking minima & maxima for parts of the south. January will continue the mild theme, but wetter and windier than December. February will break the hearts of any holding out hopes on cold weather and snow. Frosts will be few and far between throughout the entire winter period. The south westerly winds will rage through February nights with some gale force gusts for the west. March will surprisingly be a colder and quieter month with perhaps light frosts and a few sleety showers in Scotland and northern England.

Sky News have apparently run a section on TV today regarding this: http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13449143,00.html

I have to admit yes going by where HP was situated last year, the prominent blocking will hopefully occur to our north for the first time in yonks. Remember HP has a tendancy to develop & settle over cold pools in Winter and warm pools in summer. Hence the mid atlantic/ Azores HP we saw all year this summer.

Has anyone noticed the possible link up of the Greenland & Siberian HP in about +8 days time?? What would happen if this came off now, and what would happen if it occured mid-winter?? Thanks BB

but we definately have a colder pool to our NE than last year or other recent years. Lets hope the colder water mass can cool surrounding waters further south and drop those SSTs in the north sea. Not particularly good for lake effect snow from the east as we know but the general sea temps around the British Isles are quite a bit above normal. I agree about the cold pooling needing to reach the deaths corridor gap between Iceland & greenland. Any Atlantic lows going up there are going to kick the s**t out of any northerly incursions later this year.

Cheers Paul BB

Hi all This is probably the wrong place to start a thread re winter 05/06 discussion... can someone point me in the right direction?? Thanks java script:emoticon(' ')