MP-R

Back to cack this morning. Yawn.

Reminds me of the balmy first week of Feb 2004 and the second weekend of Jan 1998. I think with the help of sunshine, both were impressive for their respective times of year with 17 degrees in Feb, and 14-15C in Jan. It'll be hard to get 15C in January if it's raining though...

Hope everyone enjoyed Christmas. Trying to brighten up here. Might finally see some sun!

Gawd it’s grim today... although maybe the rain helps classify it as ‘interesting’? Merry Christmas all!

You’re in luck. The mild air will be with you by midweek but the current cold spell there is perfectly timed for a good Christmas - enjoy! Here we will be getting pangs of December 2015 with maxima more akin to late October and minima not out of place in early June to finish next week. All product of an unusually meridional jet and being on the wrong side of it. I patiently wait for the next opportunity and hope it’s not vía ten more days of anticyclonic clag that ends with nothing...

I’m a seasonie... Cold winters and hot summers. We get all the right synoptics in this country but often at the wrong time of year... Sort that out and there aren’t many other places I’d rather live.

Followed by the first half of June 2006, second half of 2005, July 2013, the first half of August 2020, and second half of 2016. At least Feb 2019 also started with a heavy snowfall here. Maybe I should emigrate...

La Niña summers tend to go a bit pear shaped though when a moderate to strong one. Many a La Niña year bring the right synoptics in the wrong months.

Note to self: markets trading and weather model watching come with a health advisory...

Shame. Give it another week and it'll be a turbo charged westerly. The following week a plume. This winter is even more models bingo than I can remember.

I'd certainly take another overhead high if it's a clean one - I feel majorly sun deprived and I feel even a run of frosts would add some interest to this waster of a winter so far!

Typical that the coldest morning in a while is on the day before it's supposed to turn much milder. Weather has been boring for an eternity, outlook looks largely boring too. This could end up being one of the most boring winter months in a long time!

November 2016 was often chilly here but not notably cold until the very end. The first weekend brought the first cold blip with frosts. Then midmonth saw a cold stormy period as mentioned above where there were wintry showers off a strong westerly on the 18th, then an absolute soaker of a spell from the 19th-21st. The quieter end to the month brought deep frost and fog, with the cold weather continuing into the first 4 days of December. 2017 was very much a drier version of 2016.

Might explain the lack of accuracy then haha.

What model/s does xc base its forecasts on? I often refer to yr.no for forecasts too and find they’re quite reliable in the short to medium term.

Yes you'd think we'd be further forward given technological advancements but I think this time, as with a number of other setups, it's more the fact that minor variations in the synoptic setup could result in wildly different surface conditions.

Agreed, what a complete waste of high pressure at this time of year. Problem is, a return of the Atlantic would just bring equally boring weather with the added bonus of rain, so could really do with a sunny high pressure for a while!

Probably a bit too marginal in Oman.

Plus, 9 out of 10 easterlies are useless for snow. Pretty much all of the past snowy Christmas periods in my lifetime have been from northerlies. An easterly at Christmas would at least bring a dry and cold solution, which would be preferable to cold rain. Still just over a week to go so many many changes to come.

High risk to reward living in the Southwest, albeit the north of the southwest. We either get the heaviest snowfalls in the country or miss out completely. Wouldn’t mind another snowfall like 1st Feb 2019! Fascinating model watching and loving the discussion today! Let’s hope it doesn’t go all boobs north nearer the time.

Half the time GFS goes full NAO+ no matter what comes before so I wouldn't worry just yet. UKMO are now more in favour of a cold outcome though which is encouraging.

Groundhog Day. Yawn.

Did you just get rain from the succession of Channel Lows after the initial easterly? We had two more snowfalls on the 05th and 06th and again on the 08th (the latter from the west). The cold stormy first ten days of March were a bit of a shock after such a benign springlike spell in February. Another case of the strongest wind of the 'winter' here coming in early March, then a brief cold snap with some late snow falling (not lying) on the 04th.

Often is with winds from the east off the North Sea but that is quite a notable difference.

Possibly the most un-December like weather out there this morning. 11.5C, sun sort of out and a thick drizzle falling. Yuck.