Paranoid

NHC use 1 min averages. Everywhere else seems to use 10 min i think apart from the Indian version of the Met Office who use 3 min.

Cat 1 is 64 knots (74 mph) so Hermine was about 14mph off. Personally, it looked like it was a Hurricane judging from the satellite pictures just before landfall, although tbf it's been odd to see a TS that actually has some convection compared to the ones we've had this season (Fiona had barely any). Edit: I think Hermine made landfall with 65mph winds actually, although i haven't been able to find the advisory just before she made landfall. I was in bed when she did so i missed it.

It made it to 60mph, so a fair distance short of hurricane strength. If it had had about 12 more hours over the water it probably would have made it.

NHC says 60mph, so it's unlikely to make it to hurricane status before landfall.

The GFS model shows two more cape verde systems (most likely Igor and Julia) forming in the next 5 days or so. Igor looks like it could get pretty strong even halfway between the Caribbean and Africa, so definatley one to watch. None of the models seem to make anything of Gaston's remnants so i expect they will dissipate due to land interaction before re-organising sufficiently.

If it heads a bit further north it can find its way to some 30+ waters. A hurricane would be more likely if it gets over those waters but the current path has it making landfall just before reaching them.

We have the remains of Gaston at 80% and a system in the GOM (probably merged with the remnants of TD11-E from the pacific) at 60%.

Well gravity is the biggest problem of getting off the surface of the planet, but yes, building/launching ships from the moon would be considerably easier than from earth.

Back up to 80% again.

You need a hell of a lot of lead to block gamma rays (block is not really the right term as it is theoretically impossible to totally block gamma rays, only to reduce them). You need very dense materials like lead or depleted uranium which are also very heavy as result. Like i said, this wouldn't be a problem if we had the facilities to construct ships in space, as we wouldn't have to send the whole weight up in one go. I think constructing ships in space is probably feasible with current technology, but as i said before there's no infrastructure for doing so. You'd have to convince the governments that fund the space agencies that their investment will give them benefits and i dont think they'll accept exploration as cutting it.

There's a lot more risks to consider when sending a human crew. There's the problem of a larger spacecraft which can sustain a crew for at least a year (the time it would take to get there and back), and cosmic radiation is another major problem if we send an Earth launched ship, as building a ship with sufficient protection from radiation would probably make it far too heavy to be launched from the ground on earth (not including all the food supplies and scientific equipment a mars mission would need). A ship constructed and launced from space wouldn't have these problems but we have no such facilities to do so. Radiation wasn't too much of a problem for the moon missions because it was a short mission, but with crews out there for a year or potentially two, the risk of damage from gamma rays becomes a much more signficant problem.

I imagine a fair amount of it is due to funding. The US government which is probably the largest funder of space exploration has other things to spend its budget on (like wars) and the ESA has focused on unmanned exploration which is far cheaper and logistcally much simpler even if it cannot gather as much data. As for heading out into space for resources the sheer cost of getting to places like the moon probably makes creating a profit impossible as we would not be able to bring back a suitable quanitity of resources to make it worthwhile. Also, it's much easier to get most of this on Earth. The same could be said for alternative fuels; we know the oil and other fossil fuels are running out but we are incredibly slow to turn to other forms of energy like hyrdogen power and nuclear energy (which once perfected would be essentially limitless sources of energy) simply because it's easier to use oil and gas. The skeptic in me says that we will only make a mad dash for alternative energy once some sort of massive crisis forces us away from "the easy option". The collapse of the Soviet Union has probably slowed things down as well as there is no real rush to reach new goals of space exploration before the other side does. Once the moon was reached the Soviets didn't bother going themselves as the primary goal of reaching the moon was simply to get there first. There is no real competition that would force the main players in space exploration to get back out there, there have been a lot of bold proposals on the unmanned exploration front recently but a lot of have them got brushed under the carpet as governments are unwilling to commit resources to fund them, but if it was 30 years ago, it would be a question of not bothering or letting the Soviets achieve it first (which would have been unacceptable from a politcal perspective). Now there is no risk of that happening. Perhaps with the rise of China and India as global powers a new space race will begin between them, which could produce new technologies and possibilites as a result. We are experiencing a space renaissance of sorts at the moment, with renewed plans for reaching the moon and a replacement for the aging space shuttles. A lot of this has been put on hold however in the wake of the recession so i doubt many new plans will surface for the next few years. In conclusion, i dont think we will really race out into the solar system until something forces us to.

Gaston has dissipated, a little unexpectedly but given conditions its not a huge surprise. Could regenerate but NHC forecast it to stay as a non-tropical system from now. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022033 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Seems to be running ever so slightly to the west of 75W. Also is it me or is the eye re-emerging?

Looks like Earl has weakened slightly to 145mph and 932mb (although that's still stronger than before the eyewall replacement happened. Probably good news for those on the east coast but it will take a fair amount of weakening before they're at ease i imagine.

What i presume is 99L has just formed off the coast of Africa. The Atlantic is really churning them out at the moment. Currently only at 10% but given how quickly 98L became Gaston (and assuming conditions are equally favourable) this could go on to be Hermine fairly quickly. 1. YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Fiona's pressure has dropped again after a rise earlier. Down from 1001 to 997mb and still at 60mph.

Back up to Cat 4 but no change in pressure thus far. 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 ...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. * FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

The caribbean has been pretty much untouched this season (apart from Alex briefly in June). I dont think shear levels are anything spectacularly high atm in the area and SSTs are around 29-30c. Could end up becoming a major hurricane so this one should be watched as a potential threat.

Now TS Gaston. Thread name change if you please mods =). Forecast to become a hurricane in about 4 days time once shear abates. 000 WTNT34 KNHC 012040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010 ...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Pressure has dropped slightly on the last advisory so Earl is strengthening again. Doubt there will be much opportunity for anything on a massive scale but could get back up to Cat 4, winds need to only increase by about 5mph.

98L has become TD9. Forecast to become Gaston and could potentially end up heading into the Gulf via the Caribbean. One to keep an eye on. 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 35.8W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg. Eye looks like it's sorted now. Could be on the mend?

98L up to 80% now. NHC say a TD could form at any time.

Up to 60mph now, a bit of unexpected strengthening. Could be due to Earl weakening a bit so shear may have relaxed a little. 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011146 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 800 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010 ...FIONA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 60.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AFTER THAT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA