Paranoid

As long as the rainfall amounts aren't too high Haiti and the Dominican Republic shouldn't be too badly affected by Emily.

An eye is starting to form http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/vis-l.jpg Might make it to Major Hurricane status by the next advisory?

The latest advisory puts her at 45mph, but if you say that there are reliable 45kt winds being found by recon then that might be a little conservative.

Certainly improving on the satellite loops. Vis: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

I'd say the mass to the west looks in better shape than 91L at the moment. It seems to be tracking directly west at the moment, i assume it will turn to the NW at some point as the models have suggested?

Is it possible that mass of convection to the west is interfering with 91L's development?

Just been upped to 90% in the last 5 minutes or so. What are the SSTs and shear levels like along 91L's expected path?

There's been a small glacial flood at Hamarinn, near Grimsvotn. http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=1255

There's been a M2.8 in the caldera, it may be related to a possible sharp rise in harmonic tremor discussed in the comments section of Jon Frimann's latest blog post (although there is some debate about whether this was a false reading or not.) Linkage ahoy. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/ http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=1245

Cluster of earthquakes in the last hour or so at Katla. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

Nice little video i found of all the Icelandic eruptions and earthquakes in the last 15 years. What's interesting to see is how quiet the Katla area seems in the last 2 years compared to previously. http://vimeo.com/24442762

It's at 90% quality at the moment, so may get downgraded. Usually, it has to be around 99% on the website before it's "fact". Still, doesn't change the fact that Katla's rumbling away again after a brief pause today. Edit: Someone posted this on Jon Frimann's blog, it's a scientific article on Katla eruptions, so it might be of some interest to people. Some of the science is a bit over my head but it's quite informative. It was written in 2008, so it doesn't take into account any possible effects of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption on Katla's magma chamber.

Is this Southam in Warwickshire? In which case, there was a funnel cloud around Leamington Spa and Coventry on the same day so it might be the same one. Cool image though .

Another glacial flood, albeit a minor one, occurred last night apparently. http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

Dora's had another burst of strengthening and is now nearly Cat 5. 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211438 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011 ...DORA NEARLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 106.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK DORA IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 155 MPH...250 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TONIGHT...AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Apologies for double post, IR definitely underway. Pressure's dropped 20mb in the last 3 hours and Dora is now Cat 4. The eye is very clear on satellite images and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis-l.jpg 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202343 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 500 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011 ...DORA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 104.8W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

The focus for the earthquakes seem to regularly shift around in the caldera, so magma may be rising in several places. I think i saw some comment on Jon Frimann's blog about the possibility of a rift eruption, although i didn't see any scientific evidence to back that up. In my own uneducated opinion, i think Katla may still be a few months away from a major eruption. Time will tell.

Certainly can't rule out a Cat 5. Personally, i think a peak of 145mph is fairly conservative (as the NHC often seem to be), i think somewhere in the range of 150-160mph is more likely (IMO), but then again, I'm not a meteorologist. As long as nothing unexpected happens (sudden increase in shear, dry air entrainment or eye wall replacement cycles), i think Dora has a reasonable chance of making it into the lower end of Cat 5.

2001? Have we gone back in time ? I think Dora is strengthening ahead of schedule, so i think she'll make it to a moderate Cat 4 (already looks it i'd say from the image although it may take some time for winds to respond). Haven't looked at the latest wind predictions yet, so the NHC may already be calling for Dora to reach Cat 4. Edit: Indeed they are, Dora's forecast to peak at 145mph (in about a day's time) at the moment.

Looks in better shape as an invest/TD than Bret does at the moment. Both look fairly well sheared though.

Now up to a Cat 2 with 105mph winds. Looks very good on satellite images and i'd say RI is probably underway already.

99L now at 90%, could briefly become a tropical or subtropical storm before it hits the colder waters.

99L has just been upgraded to 60%, so we might see TD3 out of this fairly soon.

New cauldrons forming on Myrdalsjokull, evidence of increased temperatures and continuing activity at Katla. More in Jon Frimann's blog, which is becoming a very useful source for this. http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=1219

Now up to 65mph. Is that an eye-like feature in the latest image or just a gap in the convection? 000 WTNT32 KNHC 182056 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 ...BRET STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 77.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND BRET COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH