Paranoid

Latest advisory gives a pressure of 946mb, looks like Irene is intensifying again. Keep an eye on the physical growth of the storm though, if the size of Irene increases we wont see much difference (if any) to the winds (a la Hurricane Ike in 2008).

Aye, i think due to the lack of notable storms this year, a lot of people don't realise quite how active it's been in terms of storm formation. I expect the ACE is below average for this time of year though.

Another TD has formed out in the central/eastern Atlantic. First advisory below. http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/250857.shtml

I was thinking an EWRC might be occurring, the eye wasn't visible on the last few frames of the sat loop, and the NHC had noted a high possibility of a cycle occurring.

I think it's coral reefs off the coast of the Bahamas.

Some of the models i've looked at have trouble tracking this system, so i don't know what its potential for further development is. If this does develop into a ts soon, it could give the ACE value a bit of a boost, as Cape Verde systems often do.

Looks like cloud tops are cooling again after warming up slightly earlier on. Convection is greatest over the NE quadrant.

Latest advisory is out, forecast once more to reach Category 4 with 135mph winds. After that, the NHC expects an eye wall replacement cycle to occur which should stop further strengthening.

I think Cat 4 is quite likely, but from the models I've looked at i think Cat 5 is an outside chance at the moment. Still, these things are pretty unpredictable and things could change quite drastically down the line. I wouldn't rule out Cat 5 entirely, but i think it is unlikely at the moment as although there's a lot of warm water around, Irene still has to deal with some dry air and moderate shear.

She's really starting to tighten up on satellite images.

Has Irene started to turn towards the north-west yet? If not, Irene will probably get closer to Florida and may end up taking a similar path to Donna in 1960. That would take it up nearly every state on the east coast and probably not be particularly pretty...

She's now a Category 3 according to the NHC. Pressure is set at 957mb. I would post the advisory but the copy and paste system has gone a bit weird since the forum got updated. "...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS..."

Irene now up to Cat 2 (not at all surprising from those cloud top temperatures), another advisory is coming out in about half an hour or so. The NHC have this to say for the moment. HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANEWITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILLFOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC. SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC... INFORMATION--------------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.7N 68.7WABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$FORECASTER BRENNAN

Looks to me that Betsy's track took it more directly North-West to begin with, missing Hispaniola quite easily. Irene's forecast to only just miss making landfall there, so i think a landfall on the east coast looks more likely than it being a fish.

SSTs in the region still look favourable for some significant strengthening, and they're around 30c near Florida, so if Irene starts to move up the coast then she'll probably get a boost from the warmer waters there.

She seems to have weakened a little, possibly due to interaction with Puerto Rico? -LOCATION.. .19.0N 67.2WABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

The NHC forecasts are often quite conservative, i've always wondered if there was some other reasoning behind it. It may be that they want to resist putting out predictions of strong hurricanes and then have a no show as that leads to complacency when it comes to preparing people for storms. Happened with Cyclone Tracy in Australia, where people didn't take heed of the warnings partly because a cyclone had been forecast to hit them a week or so before and nothing came of it.

We've been quite fortunate so far, a lot of storms but they've all been weak. The models seem quite keen on Irene becoming a Hurricane so this may worry those in the Caribbean and the Gulf.

Are those 50kt winds gusts or sustained winds? If they're sustained that is remarkable for a system that's not even a cyclone, as you said.

Harvey's at 50mph, so strengthening quickly (but hardly rapid intensification). NHC are going for a 65mph peak.

Some more earthquake activity at Katla, but there's also continued activity around Gothabunga (the site of a suspected cryptodome or lava dike) or to the west and on the south flank of Myrdalsjokull outside the caldera.

Krakatoa is generally more active than Santorini, but its eruptions are smaller i think (Krakatoa's 1883 eruption was on the lower end of VEI 6 while Santorini's last eruption was around 3 times larger and closer to VEI 7). Krakatoa's also had at least 2-3 caldera forming eruptions in the last 2000 years, but Santorini's last one was about 3500 years ago.

Looking very good on the satellite images ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/vis-l.jpg ). Now up to a Cat 4 and NHC have noted that Eugene may be taking on annular characteristics. Part of the joy of watching East Pacific systems is that the stronger systems tend to float harmlessly out to sea.

Certainly looking good, although i can't decide whether any further strengthening has occurred or whether its simply better organisation. Sometimes storms can look like they've undergone a lot of strengthening but nothing much has happened.

Now the third Major Hurricane of the 2011 East Pacific season. Forecast to strengthen a little further to borderline Cat 3/4 strength; advisory below. 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030233 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011 EUGENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 KT AT 0000Z...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 100 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. THIS MAKES EUGENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...EUGENE STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS IN CURRENTLY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATER...AND RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT...AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK OF EUGENE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BASICALLY HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EUGENE TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL PATH. A REDUCTION IN SPEED IS LIKELY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE WEAKER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A TAD TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 16.2N 115.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 16.9N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 17.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 21.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW