Paranoid

Very impressive indeed. I think previous record was held by Sergio in 2006 (which was a Cat 2). The East Pacific season seems to have had a lot of major hurricanes despite a fairly low number of systems, quite the opposite of the Atlantic season.

Something that's just occured to me; are the daytime maxima particularly high for this time of year or is it rather we don't seem to have much of a diurnal range at the moment. It doesn't seem to feel any colder or warmer regardless of what time of day it is at the moment.

It's a pretty big system, over 1200km in diameter. Picture below but it doesn't really do it justice.

What happens if it becomes a TD or TS, will it be counted as part of the Atlantic season or just be kept in it's own little area?

Hot/humid weather, it's just unpleasant doing anything as everything makes you sweat and it's just horrible, especially when trying to sleep at night. Unlike like cold weather there's not much you can do to stay cool (in cold weather you can just put more layers on or crawl in front of the fire). I generally like cold weather as long as i'm dressed for it, but i dislike sleet. It's disappointing and it just feels like snow that isn't making the effort (or really cold rain which isn't too pleasant).

I think it may be quite remote, apparently little was known about it until it erupted in 1971. Last erupted 20 years ago with a VEI 5 eruption.

@GSL: Yeah, it's started raining here now, although i can't really tell how heavy it is because my window is rather sheltered. The lightning has been pretty impressive though.

Can hear thunder here in Hull now, not raining yet but just had a very bright flash of lightning.

Awaiting it across the Humber now, Got a message from my overjoyed housemate who had to drive through torrential hail and thunder on his motorbike.

What's the shear forecast like for the region? Last i saw it was up to 60kts north of Cuba, which i imagine would shred any system regardless of organisation.

Been upgraded to TS Rina overnight, currently forecast to make it to Cat 1 just east of the Yucutan before heading into the GOM.

Ideally, 3.5c. Realistically, i'm going for 7.7c.

I think it's the site of a landslide several thousand years ago. I can't be certain but there are other features on the Canary Islands that look like that too and the chain in general has a history of landslides. If it was a caldera there should be some evidence of the rim above sea level on the other side of the area you labelled.

Noticed on Jon Frimann's blog that as well as the earthquake swarm at Katla yesterday there was also one at Askja in Northeast Iceland. Askja is also capable of large explosive eruptions.

Re the possibility of flank collapse: From what i've read in places, the previous landslide that occured on El Hierro, whilst huge in terms of the total volume of material that fell into the sea, it didn't occur all at once, rather with a number of landslides over a period of hours or day. Local tsunamis are still possible under that scenario though. This is the paper i was reading, hopefully i've interpreted it correctly: http://geomar.geo.ub.es/eurodom/documents/Massonetal01_ESR.pdf

Yeah, i've been having a look at the island and it doesn't look like a shield volcano, and the cinder cones suggest it's not exactly a stratovolcano so i don't think a large explosive eruption will be as likely to occur. Anything within the range of VEI 1-3 is possible i'd say, as it's unlikely to be entirely effusive or explosive. A small to moderate eruption column accompanied by some lava flows is my best bet. @ SB: Quaternary merely refers to the period in which it was erupted (within the last 2.5 million years roughly) and trachybasaltic rock is a combination of trachyite and basalt, which are both from fairly non-viscous lavas, like those at Hawaii but probably not quite as runny. Tuff is a rock formed by accumulated volcanic ash (evidence of some explosive activity).

It probably all depends really on the internal pressures and dissolved gases within the magma, but basaltic lavas are certainly capable of producing VEI 3-4 eruptions. I can't claim to be an expert though, and also as far as i know there is only one historical eruption at El Hierro so i'm not sure what to expect exactly (epic vulcanology cliche). Found this on the basalt page on wikipedia: "Basalt which erupts under open air (that is, subaerially) forms three distinct types of lava or volcanic deposits: scoria; ash or cinder (breccia); and lava flows. Basalt in the tops of subaerial lava flows and cinder cones will often be highly vesiculated, imparting a lightweight "frothy" texture to the rock. Basaltic cinders are often red, coloured by oxidized iron from weathered iron-rich minerals such as pyroxene. `A`a types of blocky, cinder and breccia flows of thick, viscous basaltic lava are common in Hawaii. Pahoehoe is a highly fluid, hot form of basalt which tends to form thin aprons of molten lava which fill up hollows and sometimes forms lava lakes. Lava tubes are common features of pahoehoe eruptions. Basaltic tuff or pyroclastic rocks are rare but not unknown. Usually basalt is too hot and fluid to build up sufficient pressure to form explosive lava eruptions but occasionally this will happen by trapping of the lava within the volcanic throat and build up of volcanic gases. Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano erupted in this way in the 19th century, as did Mount Tarawera, New Zealand in its violent 1886 eruption. Maar volcanoes are typical of small basalt tuffs, formed by explosive eruption of basalt through the crust, forming an apron of mixed basalt and wall rock breccia and a fan of basalt tuff further out from the volcano."

Ah, basaltic lavas usually come from less explosive eruptions, although if any water intrusions happen that can cause some quite powerful eruptions like we saw with Eyjafjallakjokull last year and possibly with Grimsvotn earlier this year.

Hot spot refers to the plume of magma that feeds it (usually they are responsible for volcanoes that are well away from plate boundaries, like Hawaii.) and not the activity of the volcano. Yellowstone is a hotspot volcano and that erupts every 640,000 years, which also goes to show that hot spot volcanoes do not always have effusive eruptions, although it does seem to be more common than explosive ones. If anyone knows that type of lava that has previously been erupted at El Hierro then you can get an idea of what sort of eruption will occur.

I think a massive explosion (a'la Krakatoa) would only happen if water was injected directly into the magma chamber so the pressure couldn't be easily released into the surrounding water.

As expected, Jova is undergoing RI and is now a Category 3. NHC forecast her to reach Category 4 before landfall which could cause some severe damage, especially as landfalling major hurricanes are much rarer in the East Pacific than they are in the Atlantic.

After 12 days as a TS, we finally have Hurricane Philippe. Seems to be developing an eyewall so may end up being a tad stronger than estimated on the NHC forecast.

Some of the tremors might be due to wind, there was a gale warning for the south of Iceland last i saw.

She has infact become a Category 4. A little stronger than Katia at her peak and very close to being the most intense storm in the season so far.

Now a Category 3, making Ophelia the 3rd major hurricane of the season. The NHC think she's peaked now so they forecast weakening from this point on.