matmilne
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Posts posted by matmilne
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patience gents, wilma's going to tease before she reveals herself.
I take it if she does arrive then this season breaks the record for the number of named systems. (even if the reliable record is only 30 years old)
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as long as that wall clears out of the way.
first
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Yep, it was the same with Katrina. People thought NO had got lucky but it was after she had passed that Katrina pushed the water down the lake and into the city. Guess we have to wait and see and hope for the best.
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where precisely in texas did she make landfall. number of miles from a town eg port arthur, galveston, huston.
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WOW that soon? she's got a wriggle on then hasn't she? I thought it was going to be much later. Will have to set alarm.
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Place your position predictions for the night, by tommorow it'll all be over
Last predction of the night; i'm going to say halfway between the trinity and neches river, route 10 had better be clear by 2300et cause if it's not there's gonna be a lot of deaths.
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oh dear, i thought that would happen. i mean the storm surge was a hit or miss but with all the water in that region and the rivers and such it was really only a matter of time until the 15 inches of rainfall collected together in the various channels and breached the barriers.
i wonder how much more that city can take.
What's happened to all the ships and rigs that were under this thing?
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i'd expect remnants of phil to join us at the start of october, rita would probably join with several low systems, northern canada then float across for mid-late october. Any storms which develop now till mid october would be with us in early november. it usually takes an ex-us hurricane 2-4 weeks to join us.
like at the moment, the remnants of ophilia are moving through due here at the midlle of this week.
It's a shame the satellite feed doesn't go form the south west coast of the usa to europe and africa cause that would give us a really good idea of what's going on
but i guess they're probably better spent monitoring rita.
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The major problem with an unstable eye is that it upsets the entire system making it's course erratic and causes major problems when it dissipates, destabilising the internal cells cause a huge outbreak of tornados and severe lightening storms. The problem gets worse if what happens to phil happens. the internal systems seperate and wreak havoc all over the usa. Rather like blowing a dandelion over someone's face.
Think of the eye like the keystone in a bridge, remove that stone and you are crushed by thousands of stone slabs. It's not looking good for the south of america. And the season's not over yet.
There are any number of possible scenarios for what will happen to rita once she touches land, but there's very few ways of telling which ones will happen. The worst i fear is yet to come.
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Yep...she's still a Cat 4.
Sustained winds are now fluctuating between 135-140mph.
I think she'll maintain as a low Cat 4 until hitting land...mainly because she is still in the Gulf and the high pressure to the north is slowly starting to wane.
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i'd expect remnants of phil to join us at the start of october, rita would probably join with several low systems, northern canada then float across for mid-late october. Any storms which develop now till mid october would be with us in early november. it usually takes an ex-us hurricane 2-4 weeks to join us.
like at the moment, the remnants of ophilia are moving through due here at the midlle of this week.
It's a shame the satellite feed doesn't go form the south west coast of the usa to europe and africa cause that would give us a really good idea of what's going on
but i guess they're probably better spent monitoring rita.
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Storm surge map.
Reports of water 2ft above a walkway in Mobile, Alabama! That is well away from Rita. Goes to show how vast the rain fall is. So if it's 2ft above the normal in Mobile, what's New Orleans?
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If anyone is in new orleans and reading this board i would advise them to quickly run to the nearest tall building and get up as high as they can, those leves are 99% likely to burst wth all the rain water. they can only handle 3 inches, and more than that has fallen, it's only a matter of time, so get out of there while you still can.
Anyone within the hurricane zone is advised to get to a building out of flood reach immediately anywhere between galveston and new orleans. Don't sit there reading, go now!
If those 2 storms do develop we're looking at another possible 4/5 for US landfall in october.
And don't forget folks, britain is in their path as well. Two severe tropical storms will come to us in october. November could be a bad month as well.
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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...AND A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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look at the line of cloud between rita and phil
i'm going to place my predicted landfall of rita just east of houston. could be recorded as a hit on houston.
There are several areas that could develop once these two have moved on.
There is some interaction, not enoght to break them apart but phil is definately pulling expelled cloud, in that northern area between the two in particular.
Anyway, it's going to be a very interesting season. 2 category 5's in a month of each other, both US land falling, fascinating.
What were the odds of that? What are the odds of a third.
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tf you watch the feeding clouds to the south, and the northern band of rita, you'll deffinately see phil try to pull them in. just watch the feed.
the attatchment shows where i think the main zones of interaction are.
The line of thunderstorms in dark blue connect the 2 storms
the light blue shows the lines of feeder cloud, note all bar one are angled at phil.
the red is the expelled northern arm of rita being now pulled in by phil
the yellow is the main movement of air into these systems, and the purple is an extreemly loose border between the two note the sheer size of phil compared to rita.
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good morning all
just been watching the imagery again
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
this really shows what's happening with rita and phil. There is absolutely no doubt these two storms are interacting with one another. They flirted for a while rita tried to dump him but phil seems unwilling to let go. And look at the cloud patch south of the two storms, they're angled at phil and only partially pulled in by rita.
It's very interesting in the gulf at the moment.
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This loop now proves she's passed eyewall replacement http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Eyewall was clouded over, now crystal clear..
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scratch my last prediction, course change possible, the eye appears to be looping around. Deffinately wobbling
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I've been watching the vis for the atlantic and both rita and phil's centres are moving roughly parallell north to one another. i think rx is right, there's deffinately some sort of tethering process going on.
if she continues to curve there's no doubt she'll hit the louisianna side of the border
Interesting to note; the hole in phil is roughly rita sized.
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And if rita wasn't bad enough there are 2 more potential hurricanes waiting to the east, one should deffinately track in. When do gulf temps peak incidentally, after that we should see a decrease in intensities. The question of course is, how many more are there to come and how intense will they be. doesn't the season last another 2 months. I wonder if they're considdering evacuating the south coast completely.
For a period that is suposed to be part of "well known cycles" the us certainly seems to have been caught sitting pretty. That's one bush and fema will have a hard time answering for.
After rita, we've to worry about stan and his little friend not to mention any new cousins that develop between now and then. Could we see yet another us landfall ex-cat 5 hurricane by oct 27th? Place your bets. These are exciting and devastating times. Active seasons give a wealth of information to scientists and can lead to new technology and understanding that will save millions of lives, but at the same time they bring powerful and devastating storms that will kill thousands. Irony, the law of human situations.
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i can see every ones point here, i believe we will still have quite a bit of development in the next few hours, i definately reckon we already have a category 5, and this is certainly going to very interesting to watch!
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yep a 4 already and could easily hit 5 before landfall in texas, new orleans will deffinately get something, maybee even enough to overwhelm its defences.
Waiting For Wilma!
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by matmilne
there are presently 4 active systems in the world at the moment, 2 in the west and east pacific, 1 in the gom and 1 in the indian ocean.
Kirogi off the coast of japan is a cat 4 at the moment.
i find this link good for knowing the number of tropical storms and their positions
http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html