[Hurricane 'vince']

It's fallen apart. NHC 5am EDT advisory downgrades it to a tropical storm with further weakening expected. It was pretty while it lasted. I think you might be right about that shear.

[Hurricane 'vince']

If the finale image on that sat loop is anything to go by, it's fallen apart suddenly. How odd.

[Hurricane 'vince']

This is true, but I think we understand the general rule that Hurricanes tend not to form in cooler seas. They normally need SSTs of 27c, the fact that this Hurricane has formed in SSTs of 24c obviously bucks the trend. We must however realise that this is a freak exception to the rule and unlikely to alter our thinking a great deal. On the plus side it does give us an opportunity to learn what conditions are needed for development of a tropical system over cooler seas.

As Donald Rumsfeld said (in far more confusing words than I will)...

There are things know that we don't know.

There are things we don't know that we don't know.

It's the latter of the two that usually come back too haunt us.

I'm not saying that you're wrong - I have no right, and there's no reason from what we know now to say that you are. That said, if science found something new that completely turnd hurricane theory on its head, it wouldn't be the first time that science has had egg on it's face for such a thing.

[Hurricane 'vince']

Brilliant! Seriously this has made my day, our first ever home grown European hurricane!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Really? I find it a bit of a concern. To me, whether it's brilliant or not depends n whether its a normal random and one-off type event, or a symptom of the beginning of a trend.

If the latter, europe could become a tropical zone

Of course, it's woth noting that for everything that everyone does know, nobody really has a clue as to what's really going on for sure. The best anyone does is make educated guesses.

[BBC Weather Forecasts and Graphics Discussion]

Does this mean that they'll descibe a cold front as "a patch of warm air", completely ignoring the patch of warm air below it?

I watch the weather for the weather. I don't want to have to sit there interpreting what they are saying and reading between the lines!

Seriously though, what if they all start acctually believing what they say?