Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

chionomaniac

Model Forum Host
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,565

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    71

 Content Type 

Everything posted by chionomaniac

  1. chionomaniac
    Funny enough the temp has dropped 1.5ºC in the last 10 mins as a breeze has set up - so I have probably maxed out today.
  2. chionomaniac
    Got upto 31.7ºC now. I can't say that my weather station positioning would meet Met Office official collecting data criteria, however when we are limited by the size of our gardens and restrictive covenants it is the best that I can do!
  3. chionomaniac
    Remember that as the temperature soars during the heat of the day the relative humidity drops inversely even though the dew point may be fairly constant. Today is a classic case in point as my screen shot of my weather station data shows. The blue line shows how the relative humidity has dropped as the outside temp has increased (yellow line) whist the dew point has only reduced slightly:
  4. chionomaniac
    Right cracked 30ºC here, it's 30.7ºC now - I can't remember when that was last achieved.
  5. chionomaniac
    Yes Robin, the previous best this year was 29.2ºC on the 7th of this month - but it took until 3pm for that temp to be reached so highly likely to get a 30ºC day today.
  6. chionomaniac
    Hottest day of the year here today. And I am at home with a bad back and two poorly children. Have now closed the windows to keep the slightly cooler air in. It has risen to 29.3ºC outside but is still only 25ºC inside and with a fan on that is bearable for us all.
  7. chionomaniac
    Are the skies clear enough in Nottingham to encourage good batting conditions, Bot?
  8. chionomaniac
    Just to note that Monday's earlier forecast cool plunge has all but disappeared now! Even Scotland is keeping the warmer weather with up to 20ºC still forecast. Take note all - cold(er) northerlies can be downgraded at any time of the year! Oh and the GFS was the least on board with this.
  9. chionomaniac
    Good to see that the displacing Azores GHigh is becoming the dominant theme as expected for this month. There is still no major MJO input forecast on the teleconnective side and with low GLAAM things should stay in a status quo for a while with repeated troughing to the north failing to make significant inroads to the majority of the country. MJO phase 3 for July the likely result: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JulyPhase3500mb.gif
  10. chionomaniac
    Another lovely day here. Since 25th June we have had all but 3 days above 20ºC (and two of those three got to 19.7ºC and 19.9ºC ). The last four days have all reached over 25ºC - far better than recent years. I am now wondering when the next sub 20ºC day will be. Not too soon I hope! Who wants hot sultry evenings?!!!
  11. chionomaniac
    Sorry Shed. It was just that you said that there was nothing in the 12Z GFS to derail the transition to cooler temperatures whereas the 12Z GFS for the bulk of England does keep the warmth before rebuilding the AH. Whereas I agree that the exact positioning of the trough is yet to be determined and that historically the ECM verifies better than the GFS, the 12Z GFS wasn't backing up your post - the UKMO was. For those living towards the south of the country dry settled conditions are likely to continue, no matter what model you look at, with a reduction in temperatures before another increase later in the period. The centre of any depression is well north of the Shetland Islands on all models.
  12. chionomaniac
    Considering that for the last few years we have had recurrent troughs sitting over the UK we are in a far better position. We have uncertainty about how far south a trough that is situated to the north of the UK and that is passing from west to east, will exert its influence. It looks that after the trough has passed the azores high will rebuild. Certainly not a poor outlook. My grass is already browning here.
  13. chionomaniac
    Except for the fact that the GFS is programming higher temps for Monday than tomorrow for the bulk of England! So a cooler blip for the north, yes, but as you were for the south.
  14. chionomaniac
    It is of course a forum for all of those criteria, Shed ( by wanting a particular type of weather type in a season does not mean that you not geniune in your enthusiasm for weather, as you seem to suggest).
  15. chionomaniac
    I've never seen a forecast promise anything mushy. Surely you you have been in the game long enough to realise that a subtle shift in overall wind vectors and orientation of a high pressure can make a big difference to the temperature - hence some areas in the west midlands receiving upper 20's whilst those in the east are in the lower 20's?
  16. chionomaniac
    Would agree on this point. With the MJO decreasing in amplitude - it will be less of a player. You are right to urge caution, John, with those looking into too much from the MJO composites - those should remember that the MJO is just one component of the Global Wind Oscillation that measures transfer energy momentum from the tropical regions to the mid latitudes and also from the earth to the atmosphere up to the stratosphere. Without taking all of this into account one could get led up the garden path by looking at the MJO in isolation. FWIW I see a re-ocurring displaced Azores high being the main theme throughout July without a major increase in any MJO wave amplitude.
  17. chionomaniac
    I am hoping things will be Ok - it is brightening up now - the bride has to ride in an open horse and cart thingy!
  18. chionomaniac
    Miserable drizzle here - and its sneaking under the radar - literally, it is too low to show on the rain radar. Very annoying as I am off to a wedding and I am meant to be forecasting when there will be dry slots!
  19. chionomaniac
    It feels like the day after the thunderstorm here today. Which is a pity - a bit like having a hangover without the alcohol. Frustrating few days knowing that the set up was close to bring the plume across the channel but a few factors have gone against us - still there is a chance this afternoomn for more northern areas of our region as the surface based Cape increases ahead of the Channel system. Anyone seeing sunshine currently? This will be a big help.
  20. chionomaniac
    Looking at the NMM surface convergence one could quite reasonably see the line of Channel Island storms start to extend up towards the IOW and Southampton in the next couple of hours. Then slightly drift towards Dorset.
  21. chionomaniac
    Some good cells forming around the Channel Islands currently. Worth watching where these head to.
  22. chionomaniac
    New thread here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77047-model-output-discussion-18z-18613-onwards/
  23. chionomaniac
    Time for a new thread. With a summer depression trying to ruin the weekend what is likely after? Please discuss here. Be respectful and please note that this is not a moaning thread.
  24. chionomaniac
    New thread coming soon. Please finish up here.
  25. chionomaniac
    Here in Brighton we have low cloud and moisture off the cool Channel as the warm air travels across from the continent. Has this burnt off on the other side of the Down's - Coast - anyone?
×
×
  • Create New...