[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

26 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Mid month cold spell not going away

 

As if to take the p### even more the GFS now gives us a Murr sausage in the medium range. Something to be taken with a lorry load of salt.  Perhaps one of the lorry loads of salt that the councils will have left over  having boutght it in  based on the Met office forecast of a blocked December with winds from the east or North.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

The last couple of days have been interesting with the operational models showing some stellar runs in terms of a mid march cold/snowy/snap/spell.

However one has to wonder given the relatively poor performance of all the models in the mid/longer range this winter whether they are just flattering to deceive us coldies once more.

I,m afraid I am far from convinced by the wintry output at the moment.   But then who can blame me after all it was only a few weeks ago that ECM had all 51 ensemble members on board for something special which then turned out to be something exceptionally ordinary.

I hope for all our cold/snow loving members that one of these spectacular mid march runs is on the money but I am not holding my breath until they are still showing at T48.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

mmm the ECM 12z has a channel low moving into a cold airstream that could bring some fun and games for someone.

couldn't be more different to its 00z output.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

The late winter eye candy on the gfs operationals may have taken its leave for the time being but I'd be very wary of writing off a cold and/or snowy spell just yet there are a worthwhile number of ensembles on the the 12z 850's dropping down between minus 5 and minus 10 to keep it out there as an option. yes next week will feel positively springlike but anything beyond the next 7 days is pure speculation . IMO

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

I see the GFS 12z operational has now even robbed us of the eye candy that was appearing post 300hrs. Let us hope that Nick F is right in his well thought out and composed post.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual.

I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. 

• The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare.
• Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. 
• Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate.
• Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential.
• I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise.
• Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.#
• If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable.

If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this....

*Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands.

Barmada Casten

Hi Barmada-Casten.

 

This is one of the best posts I have ever read in my many years following Netweather,  It should be pinned to the top of every model discussion thread throughout the winter season.

 

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->]

Snowed all morning here at Broadmayne. Sounds good doesn't it? until I tell you it was at a rate of about fifty flakes per minute.

Its amazing how things can sound good until the detail is revealed, reminds me of the spell back end of Feb 2005 when it snowed on 12 consecutive days at my location, (the most since 1963) except of course that it was all flurries that never settled.  amazing what statistics quoted out of context can suggest.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

judging by most British winters just about everything. lol

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

Well I'm glad I didn't hang my hat on the current cold snap being anything more substantial. While it is always exciting to see the Scandi high appearing in forecasts. Unless the positioning is just right and the genoa low is sturdy the high nearly always slips away southeastwards or simply morphs into mid latitude high. As more learned posters have already pointed out the genuine article is a rare beast indeed.

Looking forward I have not yet completely given up on a decent cold/snowy spell between now and mid march and with the jet practically non-existent there is always the chance of some unusual or unexpected developments but at the same time I'm not holding my breath.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

9 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Look at the profile change around the Kara sea. 

It's a nice barometer of how the energy over the high has changed. A small switch and we get a strong high building pushing any energy over the pole. 

This is far from over. 

yes Iceberg and the meto has that profile at 144 rather than 236 as on the gfs

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Seen enough this afternoon to call it an upgrade in the reliable.  no point at all looking beyond 144 at the moment because the model that has called it right all winter the Meto only goes out that far (publicly) and it looks the best of the lot again today.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Indeed the charts are not suggesting an 1991or1987 repeat at the moment to be honest I have never expect them to firm up to something like that  but as Matt has also said in his tweet '

'details yet to be determined'  and I can no reason for there not to be the odd kink or disturbance in the flow that could give some worth while regional or local falls. as ever this will not become clear until probably t24 for any given instance.

In the mean time let us rejoice that an end to the past weeks wind rain is in sight.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

30 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I sincerely hope nobody is downbeat as a fascinating and very positive (if you like snow) 12z suite draws to a close.

Let's look at what we have:

Cross model agreement on an Easterly of sorts in the mid term. Not in far away la la land. We can go whole winters without that happening.

 

Let's look at won't we don't have:

Absolutely anything nailed on. In fact, nothing could have occurred this evening in the chart outputs that would have ensured that. We are simply too far away from being able to crack open the champagne, but... every day we see these sort of outputs is day that we are a step closer to a potentially cold and snowy spell from the east.

 

So yes it very much could all go wrong but there is nothing showing tonight other than variances on an already established theme. i.e. no 'downgrades' and no trend to anything less cold. We can't ask for more than that...

Superb post S4lancia

I find this forum really strange sometimes. Tonights  ECM 240 chart is something we would have killed for all through winter.

There is cross model agreement on an easterly outbreak.

Something members were saying we had to get but never got in advance of the previous cold spell.

Now we have have it in the reliable time frame. Members are looking something else to scupper it before its even begun. The runs are bound to change in emphasis as they come out and Dday gets closer. Remember our more learned members have suggested that this could be a two bites scenario and that would certainly tie in with the Met office thinking of later in Feb being the time for something notably cold.  In the meantime try not to get too downhearted about the uppers only reaching minus 9 across southern England later next week.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

ECM whilst disappointing compared to last nights classic is really just showing a slower evolution which ties in with the Met office thinking with any real cold more likely to arrive later in the month. I,m always wary when the classic charts are a 168nplus rather than 96-120.  Hence my warning about not getting carried away yesterday evening. It could still come good but may take a bit longer than was suggested yesterday

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Well I'm usually very excited to see charts like the one appearing in the mid term, however. The story of the winter so far is one of the ECM showing 1947esque charts at 240 only to lead us up the garden path as to the exact location of the cold pool a few days later so I am firmly on the fence on this one.  I very much hope that for all the cold and snow lovers on the forum that something akin to what is being shown by the gfs and ecm comes off but  I urge you not to hang your hats on this yet.

Unless the Met office extended outlook replaces  the words  'low chance'  for very cold weather later in feb with something a lot more substantial then I'd be very very  wary about letting the GFS or ECM flatter to deceive us yet again this winter.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. no point dressing up the models at the moment. the ops continue to trend towards their extended ens modelling and that doesn't deliver winter to nw Europe.

 

Yes that's about the sum of it Nick.

A return to our normal westerly Atlantic driven muck. Probably best for cold/snow lovers to take this chance to have a week or so away from the models in the hope that come mid Feb something more appetizing may be on offer. That's certainly what I intend to do.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Bearing in mind Fergies tweet this morning about the ECM  ends having six equally matched clusters as early 120 I would be very wary at writing off any outcome at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

40 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Bit simplistic mate, given we are affected by up to six different airmasses of which mild maritime is one.

I think most people's such comments are borne out of frustration that we have had all the right building blocks for something cold but somehow it has not transpired on a number of occasions. As a result, I don't think it's as simple as a plain return to zonal given such a weak Atlantic. Any return to zonal looks brief as the PV moves eastwards to the north of us.

Im still getting my head around this week, which at first glance looks fairly ordinary yet the N-W forecast gives me feel like temperatures of -10C at the end of the week.

Not really MP-R  Seasonality's description is a pretty good analogy of the U.K. Climate which is on the whole a mild maritime one with our weather coming at us on a west to east track off the Atlantic. Yes the text books may say we can be affected by six different airmass types but the reality is the ones from the west or southwest or south will always largely out weigh those from the north, east or southeast in any given year. Which of course is the reason that this place goes into meltdown when a sustained flow from  the north or east is shown.

Fergie often mentions in his posts about the longer range models returning to climatology and our climatology is without question a mild maritime one and that climatolgy means the dice are very much loaded against sustained cold and snow especially in lowland Britain. Which Is why despite being in my late fifties I can count the genuinely long cold and/or snowy periods in my life on the fingers of two hands.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Sadly the 00z Gfs continues the much advertised return to a mobile Atlantic based theme fo the final week of January.  Beyond that who knows. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Nice Easterly over Shetland at 240 on the ECM hopefully it will verify a good deal further south like the one we were supposed to be getting this coming week.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

and they are right - just suppressed further south  

the eps have done very well on the current drop in euro heights, counting down from 2 weeks out (as did the gefs )

the extended eps have had a bust on a couple of occasions this winter (generally the right pattern but further east ) and this upcoming 11/16 days period could go in our favour if we can get a wedge of heights to hold to our wnw and deflect the southern arm to our south. The mean and anomolies say otherwise at the moment. 

Don't nt shoot the messenger !

No disrespect intended BA  but That's an interesting concept  . I wonder how far south an easterly bound for the UK goes before its no longer an easterly bound for the UK

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

These are presumably the same ens that gave full 51 member support to the full on easterly a day or so back.

mmmmmmmmm

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You have the story from Matt but no change on the eps - a more zonal flow to return although when these charts appeared in December, the zonal train wasn't very long lasting. No sign of a pattern that could deliver cold unless the east Canadian ridge is badly modelled and the Siberian vortex doesn't return a lobe back to nw Greenland thereafter 

I wonder if the METO have a different feeling about things. Model wise . John Hammond on the latest BBC week ahead going for the possible return of cold northerlies next weekend. 

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->]

Well I did actually see some snowflakes yesterday, unfortunately they arrived after six hours of rain and did last long or settle here, however overnight there was a snow shower which froze a smattering on my car this morning and travelling between Dorchester  , Yeovil and Bridport today there were the remains of some settled stuff on then higher parts. So at least I have actually seen a kind of snow this winter. Despite the demise of the proposed full on easterly next week, I feel confident that yesterday is not the only snow chance we will get this winter.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It's far better viewing than looking at a strong jet barrelling towards the UK. There won't be many times that we will look at a chart such as the ECM T+216 in history. An intriguing run - how many times have we seen Mid latitude blocking winters turn into something better - a lot more often than those with any Vortex intensification. Strat looking primed to give a nudge in the right direction as well. May have to go back and look at the set up prior to Feb 91 as I can't remember off the top of my head.

I have to concur with Chiono here. There is as IF has also mentioned in a tweet above a good deal of uncertainty in the medium range and beyond, without a super strong jet  and a raging vortex in the mix  the cold solutions are just as realistic as any other. could it be that the strat will come riding over the horizon to save the day cement those' building blocks of potential' into something special.