mcweather
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Ian is simply commenting on what some of the models at the met office are showing, and what the forecasters there are currently briefing. Like any other set of models, or indeed any other forecasting organisation, they don't have the monopoly on being correct, or the holy grail to 100% accurate forecasts, and don't pretend to either. So yes, respect it, take it onboard and appreciate the fact that Ian is being kind enough to share some additional insight, but it would be daft to disregard other models, forecasters etc solely off the back of it.
On this occasion what's being suggested is not much different to what virtually every other model is pointing at anyway, but when it boils down to it, it's model output which may or may not come to fruition.
Indeed Paul. We are lucky to have Fergies input on Meto thinking
I think what has compounded the current situation is that just a very very short while ago we were being told
that there were tentative signs of high pressure anomalies developing to our northwest and that EC 30 dayer was suggesting negative temps anomalies in the run up to xmas
then as if by magic the GFS throws out charts for mid December showing just how that could happen
Then quick as you like that is off the cards. Perhaps suggesting that the Met office medium /long range tool flips about as much as the GFS FI does all of which brings us back to the Caveat that all medium and longrange models( including the Meto) should come with namely take them with a huge pinch of salt.
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End of November and beginning of December 2010 will always stand out for me as the best snowy and wintry spell I have experienced to this date so far! The fact we had nearly 24 hours of continuous snow falling from the 2nd into the 3rd of December was just incredible and it was moderate-heavy through out! Not forgetting the thames streamer the night before and various odd snow shower days at the end of november!
Hi StormyKing
For me the Nov /Dec spell of 2010 is without doubt the best spell of winter weather I have lived through in the internet age. I have been taking weather records since 1992 and it knocks everything else winter wise out of the park.
I have just been looking back at my records from that time when I was living at Winfrith Newburgh about 3 miles northwest of Lulworth cove on the channel coast of Dorset.
The cold spell really got going here on the 22nd November and there was an air frost every night from then until the the 27th December.
Temperature wise during this time there were 12 Ice days two of which were on the 27th and 28th November
Of the other 10 ice days, six of them fell consecutively from the 20th to 26th December
The maximum temp during the spell was when we reached 7C for a couple of hours on the 4th Dec.
All other maxima in this spell were below 4C
16 nights had a minimum below minus 5C
and another 5 nights had a minimum below minus10C
Overnight 1/2nd December I set a new record minimum for my 21 years of recording at Winfrith of minus 12.5C.
This extraordinary new record lasted just 25 days being broken again with minus 13C Boxing day morning
and all this within 3 miles of the English Channel!!
The mercury remained below freezing from 26th-29th Nov, from 2nd -4th Dec again from 7-9th Dec and then from the 20th -27th Dec
Snow wise there were ten days when snow was observed to fall. Four of these were in November with a 2 inch fall on 27th November.
Heavy snow also fell overnight 1/2nd December giving 4 inches which stayed on the ground until the 4th when a spell of sleety rain
washed it away.This was the earliest December snowfall on record locally.
A further 2 inch fall on the 17th laid the foundations for a permanent snow cover until the 27th
this was topped up on the 20th Dec with another 5 inches of snow.
This Snow cover is actually longer than that of Dec 1962.
Overall there were 34 consecutive air frosts from the 22nd Nov
Records set incuded;
Most days with snow lying in December
Most Ice days ever recorded in November
Greatest number of Ice days ever recorded in December
Coldest Christmas day on record min minus 10.2C: max minus 3.4c
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At Bournemouth the local meteorological registrar confirmed that it was the coldest December there since records began in 1879
and presumably so for much of South Dorset too.
A truly exceptional spell.
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I'm thoroughly enjoying this past winters thread. The mid 80's winters all had something to recommend them even down here close to the south coast.
Even though I work outside as a thatcher I love the cold and snow.
January 1985 was very snowy for the first three weeks with repeated heavy snowfalls here in Dorset.
February 1986 was interesting in that the cold was truly remarkable but the vast majority of the time it was bone dry and we had what the old folk round here called ' Black Frost' where the air is too dry for any water vapour to condense out and freeze to make a white frost but at the same the same time everything is frozen hard. I remember a bird being so desperate for food that it flew in to the cab of our van via the tiniest gap that we had left the window open by and happily hopped all around us looking for crumbs etc to eat while we ate our sandwiches. Obviously we made sure he got a good meal.
January 1987 saw a week that was reckoned to be the coldest week in Southern England since 1740. It was a classic spell, cold enough to freeze large bodies of water hard enough to skate and walk on safely and with some really decent snowfall. I remember battling some twenty odd miles to get to the cottage I was working on, driving my little mini 850 around drifts that were edging out into the roads only to find that everyone else on the firm who only lived about three miles away had not bothered to come in.
I was also lucky enough to spend Christmas / new year in Scotland in the exceptional spell around Christmas 1995.
It was minus 20c in my friends garden with deep snowcover and a visit to Perth saw the mighty River Tay frozen from bank to bank.
Great memories
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A biologist
Actually Fergie is a fully qualified Meteorologist and as such is probably the most qualified person alongside GP to post on here.
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I,m 55 and my snow addiction a 10 and is as strong as ever. My earliest recollection of snow was seeing huge drifts in my road in Bournemouth in January 1963 when was just three years old but my best ever snow experience was the great southwest Blizzard of 18th/19th February 1978. Cut off on the Isle of Purbeck in Dorset for Seven days by drifts over 20 feet deep.
My best experiences since then would be Jan 1985 repeated heavy falls of snow and more recently Late November and all of December 2010.
2 ice days in November 5 moderate or heavy falls of snow in December, 34 consecutive hard air frosts and breaking the minimum temperature at my weather station twice. Down to minus 11c in early Dec then down to minus 13c on boxing day morning. Fab times.
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Great post Tamara. We await the coming winters' synoptic developments with bated breath.
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As ever Chiono a superb summary of the runners and riders in this winters weather stakes.
Have followed the start thread for a few years now since the days of the late lamented Glacier Point. it is clear that trying to make prognostications for the coming winter
without taking into account the potential state of the vortex and strat connections is really just p*****g in the wind.
Look forward to your future updates Chiono and also posts from other knowledgable guys like Lorenzo, Recreteos etc.
Thanks for all your hard work and the time you put in.
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Good to see the winter thread up and running in anticipation of the new coming winter season.
A great many competing factors this year that could have a bearing on the outcome , not least the colder than normal area of the Atlantic
which has the Met Office exercised enough for them to have done a feature about it on the BBC weather website recently.
Here's something to throw into the mix. During my research for the Blizzard of 78 book a few years back I came across a quote from a highly respected Met Office forecaster regarding the winter of 77/78 who noted how in that winter westerlies and even southwesterlies (returning polar maritime) were colder than normal
and often brought sleet and snow rather than rain even to low levels. I wonder if the Atlantic cold blob might have a similar effect this year.
Certainly wouldn't mind another great Southwestern blizzard like 1978!
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I was sad to see the OPI get a bit of a kicking after having created quite a bit of excitement last Autumn.
Unfortunately in our got to have it now world everyone wants the finished article straight away. I always viewed it as a work in progress
and hopefully the Riccardo and his chums can hone the theory somewhat. The comment about sample size are valid and so it will only be as we go forward that we will see if the OPI can improve it's performance.
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I see the Ecm is yet again doing its teaser at ten days as usual. Pretty much what' it's done all winter so why should we expect anything different in early spring. Lol
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Great to see this thread up and running.
There is much to be gleaned in terms of longer range forecasting through the teleconnections and atmospheric drivers that the like of Tamara, Vorticity and the much missed GP tried to interpret on our behalf.
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Just for a bit of fun.
The OPI has proved successful for my location. every sub -1.5 year has produced at least one decent covering of snow in my backyard and it has yet again this winter. So I am very happy and will be following it again with interest next year.
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I wasn't aware I was telling anyone what to post. But I do reserve the right to disagree if I think posting a single chart at T384 is ridiculous irrespective of personal preference. And if people are doing it to give cold lovers hope then it is misleading because it's got as much chance of verifying as me becoming a mod. Surely you are not questioning my well earned reputation as a completely unbiased poster?
To be fair Knocker and with the utmost respect for your great experience you can no more say that the gfs 12z chart at 384 won't verify than the rest of us.
Especially bearing in mind that it was what your fellow professionals at ECMWF were suggesting would happen in the 32 dayer at the beginning of the month.
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Probably best to do as Tamara suggests and not read to much into the intra run differences in the short term, Patience will be required in order to find out which way the HP finally moves but with some runs hinting at retrogression and the ECM 32dayer suggesting a quick move northeast to Scandi at some point there is still plenty of scope for a few more shots at winter weather for the UK.
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With the Ecms performance as of late ...forget it!
Your getting your models mixed up Anyweather. THe Ecm 32 dayer as opposed to daily Ecm has performed well this winter, just ask Fergie.
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FroM Retron over on TWO;
The ECM 32-day control run shows a zonal spell setting in from 240 to 444, then high pressure surges NE'wards and a monster (>1060) Scandinavian High sets up. This then eventually retrogresses westwards, all the while with lows barrelling along close to the UK.
We can only look at it retrospectively if we don't subscribe to Weatherbell or similar. From what I can make out on the verification page, it has performed well this winter.
All to play for. I'd say.
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I dont post on here often but Can I ask a genuine quesiton?
I respect Ian F and any other forecaster pro or not who has more knowledge than I do. But why on earth is everyone going nuts becuase he and the Met think that this will break down in mid Feb when that is 2 weeks away and no one, Not the pro's, not the semi pros or anyone else can really say this WILL happen in mid Feb.
We arent even sure whats going to happen in 3 days time let alone 2 weeks....There are so many possible evolutions no one can tell me they know this will happen...
Have to say I have some sympathy with this view. I have the utmost respect for Ian F and the meto in general but The Met office medium range forecasts did not really pick up on either of the coldsnaps/spells so far and seem to have been talking about pressure rising to the south of the UK for an eternity and yet here we are with a euro trough.
As far a I can remember the medium range forecast at the beginning of January didn't actually mention the S word at all and certainly not disruptive S. Again with the greatest respect to Ian F and his colleagues I take little notice of the meto medium and longer range forecasts. A lot of the time this winter I think Chiono and Tamara have had a better handle on how the medium to longer range modelling might pan out, whether it has been showing cold or not.
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I am getting 520 for the midlands to 525 for the south coast from the uk T144 using the (1000-pressure)*.8+500hp.
UKM at T120 and T144 is largely snow.
At T 96 very similar to the GFS 12z precip type i/e the band goes through with the drop in temps at 850 etc, with snow on the back edge digging in and snow showers following closely behind.
For western areas the T100 to T144 period looks very snowy imho barely a few km's away from the coast based just on these two models.
I agree with you there Iceberg, based on this run even I might see some snow next weekend
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Some interesting little features crossing the south west of England in -5 850's and sub 528 thicknesses next weekend on this GFS run.
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Before the 12z's roll out lets look at what we have, well we have a progged northerly next weekend first picked up by GFS then joined by ECM and then very shortly after that by the METO.
We are told that we cannot believe anything unless we have cross model agreement. Yet the cross model agreement on a change to cold at that range is pretty impressive. Reminiscent to a certain extent of the cross model agreement in Nov 2010 albeit for a different cold scenario.
Much to be excited about really ( despite the musings of some battle weary model watchers) Such an unstable northerly would almost certainly have troughs/ disturbances/ possibly polar lows embedded.
Bearing in mind the expected upstream pattern from NCEP etc, if anything I would expect the charts to upgrade as we approach the anticipated event rather than the opposite.
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Just to pick up on some posts from the previous thread regarding climate drivers and teleconnections.
It is obvious that they don't have any relevance in modern forecasting.............. this must be why the Met office chief forecaster and his team spent over an hour discussing their likely effects for February yesterday morning.
The OPI did not forecast a long bitter snowy winter for the UK or Europe,weatherwise it forecast a winter in which arctic incursions would be more likely
in the last two thirds of the winter ( which seems pretty much to be happening).
There is obviously an interlinkage between the strat and the trop but the Met Office and the knowledgable guys on here would be the first to admit that the understanding of this is still a work in progress.
With regard to climate drivers and teleconnections the same applies, atmospheric dynamics do not always work on a linear 1+1=2 basis. It is more nuanced than this and it is understanding those nuances and the balance involved between the drivers and teleconnections which is the key. Something which GP( formerly) and now thankfully Tamara, Chiono etc do their best to give us their knowledge of.
Long range forecasting in meteorology is a work in progress and one which needs a lot more work yet but thank heavens there those prepared to learn and push it forward even if they get shot at by the less knowledgeable and a meteorologically illiterate media.
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It appears stubborn, but there is no mystery surrounding the Azores High
. Easterly winds across the tropics pulsing through the Pacific and Atlantic support robust sub tropical ridge development. The pattern, as controlled by an upstream Pacific amplification (+PNA ridge) and the northward ridging of the sub tropical high pressure belt (the Azores High) steepens thermal gradients and jet flow energy.
This pattern, as advertised within the 10 day period. However, the stratospheric signal to displace vorticity eastwards provides an increasing NW/SE tilt to the jet stream to add more and more polar flavour into the mix as we head towards day 10 .
A very interesting post Tamara and one that has me wondering about the possibilities of a Feb 1978 Scenario developing as the month progresses.
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I remember it well. as a child it was brilliant being cut off, not so great for my parents though. The fact is that no snow event has ever come close to it and as it was over 30 years ago we must be due another event like this at some point. I just hope it happens before I get to old to stick me bum on sledge and shriek!
You're so right Microclimate. Nothing in this part of the world has come remotely close since. I measure every fall of snow against the 78 blizzard and even the very best of recent times have failed miserably to get to a stage of even being fit to lace the boots of the Blizzard of 78.
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As the current cold spells looks likely to deliver far less snow than many of us southern snow lovers were hoping.
I am trying to think of some crumbs of comfort for the rest of the winter and it has come to me in the form of The best spell of cold and snowy winter weather I have lived through( Dec 2010 aside). Way back in February 1978 After a week and half of bitterly cold days and nights with the odd snow shower, heavy snow (6ins) fell on my Dorset home from a west country slider on the the night of wed 15th Feb, the following night another west country slider did exactly the same thing again. Then on the sat 18th feb after a bitterly cold and cloudy day an easterly gale started to blow during the evening giving a blizzard which lasted for 30 hours in some place here in the southwest. Drifts of between ten and thirty feet were common place in exposed rural locations. This huge snowfall fell with uppers of just minus 2°C ( You don't always need minus 5 for heavy prolonged snow). The winter prior to this had been pretty non descript in southern England not unlike the current affair.
The point of all this is that by far and away the best snow storm I have ever lived through came in a cold spell that didn't start until the 8th of February in a winter that is not even in the top 25 coldest of the twentieth century. Hang on in there snow lovers the best snow doesn't always have to come in January.
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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove post from quote.
Many thanks for the clarification. Good to see that the tentative GloSea positive pressure anomalies to the northwest have not been lost, even if they are not 'currently' the favoured outcome.
As I said in my post the fact that GFS longer range started to show how we might get there seemed to put a bit of meat on those ,tentative' bones. I fully appreciate that at that sort of range nuance and flux play an even greater part in trying to find a path through all the conflicting signals and background noise. Hence my comment about caveats.
Your input is always greatly appreciated.