Arron

Bringing this to the top ready for Friday and Saturday Slight risk in already for Friday for TX and OK panhandles and western KS ...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ALTHOUGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A CYCLONIC 70-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HANDLE...NEAR THE REMNANT SURFACE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE. THIS MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AS MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS... WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. And for Saturday atm... ..DISCUSSION... UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST DUE TO LINGERING SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE ON SATURDAY...AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER IMPULSE DEAMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...INCREASING MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH PROBABILITY OF DECREASING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO EXTEND THE AREAL DELINEATION. THEREAFTER...INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SPREAD IN MODEL DATA CONCERNING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS BECOMES MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

Decent price, seems to be about £539 for most of the dates through may/june about £460 with a stop

Finally the weather gods deliver some photogenic CGs for you! Never seen the focus so pin sharp Lewis Chuffed for you folks!

Love that first one Lewis!

Love that second pic Paul, something you don't often see out in the plains

Cmon pictures please! GASPING here !

gutted! Enjoy you lucky sods! Maybe I'll look for flights for the second chase season in September

Nice one Ross! Hoping to get out tomorrow for a wee chase

Big thanks to Paul for sorting this out and to everyone that turned up, once again a great event! LOVED the caravan club party at the end of the night too, shame we turned up about 5 minutes too late for last orders Until next time.....

Go **** yourself! Halfway there jonny boy! That was from tom btw

most of us are here, tom, dave, richard, kris, dave v and us. are you here paul? Any one got a contact number for him?

Oh no! Hope it gets sorted soon, no chance of making it down then Paul? RE, the bbq, shall we get some charcoal and stuff or is that already sorted?

We'll be doing similar! Looking at ending up in Newbury tonight then on to the site in the morning, will probably be there around the same time Tom

I'll be bringing all this years storm footage with me, although unedited as I just haven't had the time to go through them yet. Anyone is welcome to grabs video and pics from me

Lovely stuff Tom I'll be bringing all my videos to the BBQ to share although they're all unedited as I just haven't had the time to go through them yet. Bring your USB disks!

http://www.tesco.com/direct/tesco-6-person-vis-a-vis-tent/200-1706.prd £11 for a 6 man tent???!!! DO IT!

I really should go through all my pics and video, too sad though need top get back out there!

haha great video! I'll get round to going through mine soon hopefully

Booked! We'll bring food and beer with us as usual. I guess we'll aim to get there in the afternoon some time, Can't beat an ice cold beer on a summers afternoon

Here have two http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ddot9jqOY

Seriously? rofl

Another video of the Sleaford one

6 second video though? Most irritating

Just found that too Paul, jesus!

Do you drive, Tim B?