ribster
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Posts posted by ribster
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RIBSTER- I cant quite see where your coming from with your comments-
Look at the Net weather video-
I clearly said a cold december- especially start with the atlantic block, then downhill from there especially of the PAC JET & Stratosphere are poor- for the rest of the Winter-
They MAY have been edited out- I doubt it- but 100% those were my feelings-
S
Hi Steve, can you clear your inbox so I can pm you, I shan't reply in here mate.
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Excellent post Steve Murr. I can't compliment that post enough and agree entirely with SP's comments.
TA
Don't quite understand why you have quoted my post, no disputing it's a very good post. Although you cannot deny it is in response to the recent let down, and is in complete contrast to Steves earlier posts this winter.
Same thing happens with people every year though.
I do wish you would stop baiting me though!
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Dear oh dear, bit like reading Jekyll and Hyde at times, one minute all to look forward to and the next the towel has been thrown in on day 15.
As much as I enjoy coming on here and particularly reading Steve and GPs posts, I think I am going to get a far better picture and much less of a roller coaster ride if I stick with the professional forecasts!
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Currently snowing here, where did that come from!
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Easterlys for me, ala Jan 87 (think it was an easterly anyway), biggest dumping I've ever seen!
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I wonder if that's really true, Rikki. If you want to talk about natural phenomena and ancient attitudes rather than the climatic experience, I think you can argue that the winter solstice was considered the middle of winter, not the beginning. Our pagan ancestors always made a big thing of it - and Christmas was moved to be close to it - presumably to celebrate the beginning of the end of the darkness, something that was probably at least as frightening to them as cold. And looking at it weather-wise, the Dec-Jan-Feb definition has been around a long time.
For myself, I find it hard to see any logic - natural or man-made, ancient or modern - to considering the 21st Dec as only the start. Still, I have to admit that some old folklore sayings suggest that Candlemas Day, the 2nd February, was sometimes reckoned to be the middle of winter - and that would imply the season (if 3 months long) running from mid-Dec to mid-March, which is not far off.
Maybe we should adopt the meteorologist H.H.Lamb's suggestion of having five seasons, not four, with 'Early winter' running from Nov 20th to Jan 19th, and 'Late winter' from Jan 20th to March 29th.
Ossie
Ah, you've beaten me to it - unless your'e into pagan nonsense then it's 1st Dec.
what people think novemnber is a winter month???...i have never come across anybody ever who thinks tht....if u base winter being a time when u mite need a coat and scarf..then why not class april as a winter month..honestly especially the last few years there have only been a few occasions where have i had to wear a hat, coats scarf and gloves in dec, jan feb..let alone nov!!..in fact dont ever remember wearing a hat or scarf ever.I must admit, as a child I did used to perceive November as a winter month!
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Absolutely fascinating, a very intriguing read and a serious amount of effort. I will follow with interest,
Cheers chaps!
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Someone is conspicuous in their absence, nothing to talk about I guess.
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Thanks for the update Stuart, heading in the right direction I see - keep the updates coming!
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Indeed, from a nice beasterly, ala Jan 87!
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Most of our planets history was ice free but is that the issue here?
It is the issue. This planet is an iceball then its not, nature did that. This time it must be man even though cyclically the timing is right regards to where we are and how the planet is climatically. Concerned? Yes its going to get very very cold.
BFTP
Couldn't agree more, GW again makes assumptions about what the net result will be and has only listened to those quarters that tell him the result that he wants to hear. Far from proven, and there are plenty that have a completely different view point.
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If I may Field that for you Jemton.
I think the folk are concerned that there is less 'volume' of ice than ever recorded before, granted , it may be spread thin so as to not give an ice extent record this year (only second lowest eh?) but to loose 56% of all the arctic perennial ice since we started logging such things cannot be pushed aside (unless you can convince why it can of course and my mind is always open to such things 'cos it'll make my life jollier......so long as it is based in cold reality and not wishy thinking).
To see the North coast of Ellesmere island shed a further 23% of it's fringing shelf (leaving 5 storey high bergs to ice break around the arctic at the beck and call of wind and current.....why the sneck Russia need their new 'Super breaker' when you can just follow one of those babys around.....)
To have both Seaways wide open for the first time in history......
Must I go on? (I know I do somewhat but fercrissakes man!)
Indeed, the key word or phrase you use there is 'ever recorded', i.e. a very small time frame indeed. And both seaways open for the first time in history? Again, recorded history maybe, but not in the history of the planet.
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As we continue to build on flood plains then put flood defences up on the former plains it will but I don't think they'll be much change in the overall pattern it may even become dryer as they were once quite sure about or it may become wetter. Remember not very long ago they were on about the rivers drying up for good. Country file once even had a good program on it. John C standing in a dry river bed saying it's the shapes of things to come. A few years later he returned to same spot and said err no it wasn't sorry.
What like the ice caps melting, and us all disappearing under the sea?!
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Preliminary satellite data shows us that surface melt began earlier than
usual over the western and central Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay (see Figure 4). Last year was fairly typical except for significant early melt in the Laptev and Barents seas. This year, sea ice in the Beaufort Sea began to melt on average 15 days earlier than normal, and 15 days earlier than last year. Surface melt in the Chukchi and East Siberian seas was 6 days earlier than normal, and 14 days earlier than in 2007. In the central Arctic Ocean, melt began around June 9th, which was 12 days earlier than normal and 9 days earlier than the year before. In Baffin Bay, surface melt began 14 days earlier than last year and was 16 days earlier than normal. Areas where melt occurred later, compared to last year, are confined to the margins of the ice cover. These preliminary results will be updated as more data becomes available.
The above a a clip from the NSDIC 'arctic conditions' update page from July 2nd.
It appears that the 'locked in' weather patterns had little impact on the onset of melt. This coupled with the lack of perennial ice would lead me to still harbour some worries about the 'permanence' of the sea ice in those sectors this melt season.
Seeing as the 'record melt' of last year did not start to occur until July our upbeat reflection of conditions there may prove unfounded.
If we check the sea temp anom graphs you'll see that the sectors Corrinth highlighted are bathed in waters up to 4c above average temps (which must extend beneath the ice). As always we must temper the 2m temps with the sea water temps as ,just like with the paper scissor stone game, warm seas always win over cold 2m temps when it comes to melting ice (check out the 2m temps above Wilkins currently as it melts into the southern ocean
).GW, is it just me, or is it that anyone makes a suggestion that for example things are better than this time last year, you immediately jump on it and try to present something to the contrary? Almost as if you have an agenda or some mission to convince us all otherwise. I know this forum is for healthy debate, but there are two sides to every story.
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Another lovely day at the pole and ,if you look to the middle distance, you can see other 'puddles' forming. Temp still 5c so no surprises that melt should be occurring.
I imagined any breakup to be from the edge in but it looks like it will be the environment it's sitting in that does for this ice and not erosion from the seaward side (facing the Bering straights).
For those who find all of this 'humdrum', we, good for you! I ,personally, have never seen/heard of the likes before and we are only at the start of summer melt proper :o
GW, can you explain something for me? If as I'm led to believe, the planet has spent 70% of it's history ice free, doesn't it stand to reason that it will happen again? If so, perhaps we are entering one of those periods (possibly - although I don't believe that's definite), where in the not too distant future we will become ice free and further down the line enter a colder period with expanding ice. I'm all for saving energy, alternative power generation, but I really don't think it's as simple as that.
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I expect wide spread and severe "No" all Winter. Villages will be cut off by "No" for weeks and trains will stop due the wrong type of "No"
Not heard that one before!
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Could be an interesting winter in the sense that those traditional cold lovers may once they see those energy bills come in be hoping for mild conditions. Regardless of whether the cold happens, with the projected fuel bills it could be a preety miserable one all round...
Makes no odds, you can't change the cost of fuel anymore than you can change the weather, like many things in life, you just get on with it. I wont be hoping for mild conditions regardless of the price of fuel.
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14.0 for me please.
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this report from down under says it has already dissipated and isn't threatening to swing back into El Nino mode - which is good or so i get the impression
Blimey, some rather wild predictions going on here, based on not very much at all. GP always words his posts very carefully, he gives a suggestion of what events might signal, not what is definitely going to happen. Theres a long long way to go yet. 5 days isn't even nailed, never mind 60!
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_...eW7OzktDvIPLBIF
doesn't look good for this summer guys.....
Lot's of ifs ands or buts in there, if you read the article closely there is very little in the way of fact in there. Still, they have to keep coming up with the sensationalist headlines to keep their funding coming in!
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I'll go with temps being average to slightly above, but with it being very wet, June being very wet indeed.
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Just seen the latest BBC24 weather from Nick Miller.
Not looking good for London and the Southeast. He stated quite intently that the showers in the south east tonight and tomorrow morning would be of rain rather than snow, apart maybe from the hills. Sunday is down as 7 degrees, so no chance really.
I think the weather has always been overplayed ever since the hurricane of 87. They always go for the worst case scenario, and the models are built to err on the side of caution as well. Once it comes nearer the time and they are confident what's gonna happen, they give the realistic forecast.
Forget all chance of snow for most of England, it just aint gonna happen.
I'll send you some photos then!
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The silence from some quarters in here and the model thread this evening is almost deafening:
:o
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You can get an accurate picture, I think your point is the extent to which the present dearth of snow is unusual in all history. It's an interesting question if you're looking for straws to clutch, but it doesn't alter the current facts of the matter. However you carve it up, right across the UK, we have far less snow than we used to have. The snow window is shorter, events are less frequent, and they are less intense and of shorter duration when they do occur.
You're missing the point SF, nothing to do with straw clutching, I'm all too aware of the CURRENT situation. Are you that confident that this will be the case in 20, 50, 100, 500 years time? I think it's highly likely that people will be complaining about the long winters, then some time after that the lack of snow, so on and so forth. However, I know you won't agree with that as you are from a certain school of thinking, and before you respond with 'realism', I've saved you the trouble. Sadly, neither of us will be around to know, but I certainly don't believe we are on the express train to climate oblivion.
).
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According to my weather gizmo it didn't get above -0.2 here today, can that be right? I know we are in a frost hollow, but still.