ribster
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Posts posted by ribster
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Interesting in that only the other day I wrote this out from some stats when having a spare hour or two. Its just January but I suspect the other 'winter' months might well be pretty similar.
Is January getting less cold?
Data for this area seems to suggest its pretty undeniable that it is getting less cold
I have data from 1942 for RAF Finningley until it closed in 1995, and then my own data, (direct comparison when Finningley was open allow me to believe my data is pretty close to what Finningley would be showing), from January 1997 to the present time.
Although I kept no records I did run comparison checks over about 18 months of my thermometers with those at Finningley and, they were within 0.2C on average through that time.
I’ve done a ten year mean for Finningley(in some cases less than 10 years but with a note to that effect) and the same for my site.
1942-1950(8years)=3.2C(one years data that of 1943 is missing)
1951-1960=3.2C
1961-1970=3.5C
1971-1980=3.7C
1981-1990=3.9C
1991-closure 1995=4.0C
1997-2000(my data)=5.3C
combined1991-2000=4.6C
2001-2008(8 years)=5.4C
The whole long term average from 1942-2008=3.9C
Taking the 10 year rolling mean shows this
3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.7, 3.9 with similar for the other rolling means at 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 years.
To me this shows that the mean 10 year rolling average has increased by 0.7C in the period 1942-2008.
I’ve not looked at any other months, winter, spring, summer or autumn but suspect a rather similar view will appear.
So in the same area over a 60 year+ period the mean temperature for January has risen by 0.7C, not that different from oft quoted world increases over a similar time span? not sure !!! about that comment.
Looking at snow in January then the long term average for Finningley, just prior to its closure, over a 48 year period, was snow falling on 7 days and lying on 5 days(09z observation and >half cover).
The data for my site shows <2 and <1 respectively over the 12 years I have got January data.
Interesting statistics and I make no additional comment.
While the statistics/records undeniably show the current picture and trend, in terms of a history of the planets weather, they show but the merest blink in weather history terms. I would be far more interested to know the climate story for 1000 years ago, 5000 years ago etc. Once we get to having that level of records/statistics we will know much more and possibly be able to suggest what's around the corner - of course there will always be exceptions to the rule.
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As another disappointing Winter draws to a close is it really worth calling December Jan and Feb winter months anymore???
Looking at the average temperatures for Sheffield http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/MONTHLYAIRAVERAGE.htm Jan Feb and Dec are now looking like temps you'd get in late Autumn or early Spring. Frost and Snow events are very similar to what us oldies would associate with late Autumn or early Spring. Last Winter I went through without scraping my car once.
You could effectively extend Summer and push Autumn back and Spring forward and remove or and then shorten offical Winter. What do you think??
I'm sure there are many times throughout history where man has asked himself if winters are disappearing, I certainly don't think it's a case of reaching an end point, and that's it, no more winters. I think we may be stuck with it for a while, maybe a number of years of this cycle yet and then it will go the other way again. After all we are around for such a short period of time, it's hard to evaluate.
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It will happen, staistically it MUST. However, I suspect that you're confusing a RELATIVE assessment with an absoute one. In a little over a decade's time our coldest winter in fifty years wouldn't really be much to write home about in ABSOLUTE terms. The longer we wait, with a backdrop of warming, the less absolutely wintry our coldest in fifty years will be.
Perhaps the 'current' backdrop of warming, but that's not always going to be the case. Time will tell who's right and who's wrong.
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Most certainly Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, E Sussex, Cambs, Lincs
Next cold spell from the E!
Oh, teits has beaten me to it, was going to say East Anglia from an easterly!
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Don't think it's over by a long shot, I think things may turn cold and wintry again around the 16th.
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In a word no. Also, not that I believe in man-made global warming, but with the meto suggesting that we will plateau over the next few years, would suggest better potential for the upcoming few winters. If of course they have that right, and we haven't only plateaued but start to cool
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sorry maybe that was slightly exaggerated they still said it was going to be warm. Any way back on topic i don't know if it will be a white xmas and the the odds arent high for where i live.
Indded, they did say that there wa a 1 in 8 chance of record temperatures being reached, similar to or surpassing 2006.
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i hate snow and i hate crimbo even more.... a white crimbo = hell.
:lol:
I love Christmas and I possibly love snow even more. A white christmas = heaven, absolutely magical! Opening presents, siting in the armchair looking out the window across the countryside and watching the snow fall - wonderful.
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Am I wasting my time pawing over countless images to find the clearest , unequivocal, indications (for there are many more with sea smoke,low but transparent Stratos, fog......in fact all the weather types you'd associate with a rapidly melting snow cover here in the U.K.) to illustrate how woefully short of reality the low resolution, none visible spectra, wide grid, poor land mask info fed to Joe public is only for you guys to pull up the meaningless (in the context of the images) low resolution tripe? I could easily sit back and rely on some site or other to tell me what is going on but why would I be so Lazy when I can look myself at the state of play less than 4 hrs ago???
If you are content enough, within your lives, to accept second best in an area fast becoming the most crucial issue on the planet (as the effort to actually look and see actual images is too great a burden to apply yourselves to) then so be it but do not attempt to tell me black is white when I can SEE all too well that it is BLACK.
I'm becoming bone tired of being told (by folk who assure me they know better) stats and data that are rapidly becoming superseded by events on the ground. No melt of Antarctic highlands, no bottom freshening of the waters surrounding Antarctica, No basal melt and pneumatic erosion beneath E.A.I.S., no worrying ice tremors to the rear of Ross, no nothing. Keep your blankets well over your head guys, nothing to see here if you don't care to LOOK.......
There endeth the lesson! ....and people wonder why I get annoyed
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Blimey, a few bah humbug poo pooer posts in here already, don't know why they bothered. Hopefully every chance of a white christmas, and I'm sure we wil see at least a few more before I drop off the planet, to suggest otherwise is ridiculous.
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Well I'm liking TWOs autumn forecast.....
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Not for the feint hearted this chart, much mildness for December - taken from todays update on our lrf system (based around the cfs)
And if it ends up exactly like that you can have my Decembers pay packet!
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Nice memories from Kerry there, most snow I ever remember seeing was in Jan 87 - village was cut off for two weeks. Also seem to remember rather deep snow on valentines day 79?
But as for wishing for snow/severe cold and it's consequences, it doesn't really matter does it - just a preference or not. Whether we wish for it or not has absolutely no bearing on what will actually happen.
Bit like when I was in the forces, on one hand you wanted the opportunity to put your training into practice - i.e. a war, on the other you of course didn't want a war because people die. But again, wishing one way or the other had no bearing on the matter.
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It's not likely to happen. Cold winters are a fantasy. So stop posting "daydreams" about them on weather forums and go and fight greenhouse with t-shirts, flyers, and litter collection! Yay!
Also, for years-and-years now on these online weather forums people have forecast a cold (and snowy) winter: none have come to pass (though late February 2005 was *quite* snowy in certain places and the Met Office had *some* success with the winter 2005/06 forecast).
Fight the power! Fight greenhouse! Go, go, go!!!
(LOL @ Turnedoutniceagain (just seen your comments mate). But seriously this is why exactly we need old, failed weather forecast pinned - peer-ee-od.
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Month after month after month, those IRI predictions always look the same to me.
Of course Krayo. But like or not, the Met's overall summary is for a warmer and drier than average autumn. Its important any forecast is stripped down to its bare minimum so that at the end of the season, you can revaluate to see how successful its been.
That's all it is though, a forecast - I don't think summer panned out as they expected!
Not at all...There June forecast was for above average temperatures and average rainfall across the UK with only a 1 in 8 chance of record breaking conditions such as in 2003 or 2006, of course media ramtation knows no bounds.
Be fair though SB, they did not expect it to be that wet!
What they actually said:
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.
Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
Current rainfall indications suggest that over the summer as a whole southern parts of the UK are more likely to experience average or below-average rainfall, while the north is more likely to see average or above-average rainfall.
Wasn't anywhere near below average rainfall here, a million miles away in fact! So when they say for example, average or below average rainfall for Autumn I take it with a pinch of salt.
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Sad to report for the snow enthusiasts that the CIS forecast for the rest of August and early September is for normal - slightly above normal temps across the whole region and continued melting until the second half of next month. I checked my favourite webcams, and there isn't much white stuff around yet. The situation in Siberia doesn't look great, either. Perhaphs someone can post one or two of the Antarctic wbecams shots, to keep us going...
:)P
Do you have to throw a spoiler in so quickly, still savouring that picture! Not only that, it's a forecast, that snow is there now!
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Evening,
Best August snowfall for a quite a few years up there. Good omen ?
C
Fantastic, that picture puts a smile on my face, sad isn't it! Talking of SAD, there seems to be talk of this on the forum. I believe I suffer in the summer, had just put it down to being a moody kid when I was younger. But I love the cold dark winter months, strange I know - I can't help it!
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For 90% of Earth's history, it has been ice free. Ice ages depend upon the state of our orbit round the Sun ( changes in eccentricity) but also, crucially, plate tectonics ( continental drift, position of continents).
If it gets warm enough, the ice will melt, if it gets cold again, the ice will reform. If positive feedbacks were dominant, we would either be gripped in ice or in a runaway warming. Neither is the case, indicating that negative feedbacks dominate.Good news.
It amuses me when people talk about "the next ice age" not realising that we are actually in one ! The true definition of an ice age is the existence of ice anywhere on the planet , because Earth has for so much of it's life , been ice-free.
Hi Mr. Sleet, thanks I didn't know that, for me it puts current debates in perspective.
Also nice to see developments in Svalbard :lol:
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Ribster, I'm an amateur too. Two points: first up, so far as I'm aware, there is no constitution in place for N-W that says posts must not be challenged. Second, if people don't want to learn, I know I do, then what point a forum like this. There are plenty of examples of people on here whose knowledge has grown significantly from their presence and I include myself.
I don't see why an erroneous argument shoudl go unchallenegd, sorry, any more than anti-social behaviour should be tolerated.
I have clarified the point re the plateau. To reitterate, I had ALREADY posted this evening, before this mini-discussion, to an effect that aligns exactly with UKMO's point. My reference was to a previous suggestion that UK temperatures had plateaud in 2003, the essence of which neatly exemplifies some of what I've been railing against above: posts that argue against the current trend but which are either devoid of data or (worse) fly in the face of the data available.
Don't really disagree with any of that SF, just the language sometimes, although you are not alone in that....
Thanks for the clarification regarding the 2003 plateau suggestion.
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...by the way, and as a footnote, the same arguments for "blip" and "reversal" were doing the rounds on here in 2004, and before that for a couple of years on slowatch. I continue to offer the same question I have offered many times before, and which, so fr as I'm aware, has yet to be answered by any of those hanging on to notions fo future cold; "at what point in future, given continued warming in trend, would you be willing to concede that our clmate looks like it is locked into long-term warming?", or is there no line in the sand beyond which you would give up hope for a rebound downwards?
How can anyone answer that, the 'facts' are not known about the millions of years of climate that this planet has been through, long before man even existed. No one can possibly know what will be happening in 1000 years, or what factors might be at play at that time.
You do argue your point with such vigour that I do worry about you. If you want a serious scientific/academic debate on the weather/GW I would have thought there were better places than this, rather than launching into amateurs on this forum. I would have thought your obvious talents better used on a forum of academic/scientific equals. To use a footballing analogy, it's a bit like Thierry Henry playing with the local village football team.
Sorry, I should have made myself clearer, there was a recent thread suggesting temperatures had plateaued in 2003. That suggestion simply does not stack. However, this very evening I have pointed out in another post that our current differential (in CET) between ten and thirty year trend is nudging the ceiling IF there has been no acceleration in climatic warming. Given that "IF" then we would expect some rebound downwards, not necessarily back into the 9s, but certainly back towards the low-mid 10s. Back-to-back annual records are unprecedented in the annual series once the data set reached robust proportions.I don't know anything about the above. I made a simple post about the METO suggesting that temps were to plateau over the next few years (the link to the article can be found above). Not my claim, but theirs based on scientific research. Or are you refuting what they say, accepting the science when it suits, but rejecting it when it doesn't?
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If you're going to insist on persisting with the "plateaued" argument, please try to present some facts because all the ones I'm looking at don't say that - most particularly that last year was the warmest on record in the UK, and nine of the ten warmest have occurred since 1989.
SF, I don't know why you are arguing the point about plateauing, the METO themselves make the claim, not anyone on here. Of course whether that turns out to be the case and what happens after remains to be seen.
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This discussion should be fun,let's keep it that way instead of treating the matter of who is right and who is wrong as a matter of grave importance. SF,someone agreed heartily with your post. Does that mean that he too can be compared with the ridiculous analogy of the immigrant bashing skinheads,or does it only apply when someone has a different point of view?
Roll on the coming cool down. (I'm getting the crash helmet out right now)!
Couldn't agree more on the nature of what the forum should be about. I don't care what resources or tools someone has at their disposal, they can only make predictions, they cannot know without question, what will be happening in 100, 500 or 1000 years time. Yes, we appear to be warming for now, and the reasons for that are far from clear, no more to be said than that.
Very well said, everything said there is right. In my opinion.Magpie, I don't want to be rude, but we would have got the message without quoting the entire post like that, bit of a waste of space and scrolling really.
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Perhaps I was too brief in my post to explain myself fully.....
Very nice post mate, nicely put.
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Hi Ribster,
The main glacier formed over Scandinavia with a clockwise swirl around the glacier anticylone that had formed in this location. The maximum southern extent of the great glaciers were to the Mid -west states in North America. Greenland link via Iceland to Scandinvia and pushed southwards to include the British Isles and much of the North European Plain as far south as Central France and the Alps.
C
Hi Carinth, thanks for that, much appreciated. Just curious as to whether the whole lot could melt (or be substantially reduced anyway), and then reform as things cool again.
The disappearing Winters
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by ribster
As with my earlier post, I would be interested in going further back than that, i.e. 500, 1000, 2000 years, but alas we can't. By just looking at such a tiny snippet of time, I don't think you get an accurate picture at all.