Snooz
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Posts posted by Snooz
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In fact, hint of sleetiness now!
Aye just seen tap o' Bennachie is white, not really any good at estimating snow line but mebbee 400m+?
so perhaps not too far away if you're also getting the sleetiness Howham.. GL everyone
- our Footie is in Aberdeen tomorrow so still might get it played before the fun starts
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Morning All, sig updated ready for the fun an' games,, thanks for tip MK.
Impressively low temperature here now, 0.7/-.6C, given NAE pegs us at 2-3C with DP at 2C. Could easily be snow here Orde thing tomorrow at this rate.
2.3C/1.7C here at present which is the low for the day so far, was freezing around 9pm last night but was 4C with rain when I took dog out at 12am...
That's mair like it.
T = 1.2 C / DP = 0.2 C
see BMW's been busy wi' the washing..
Not expecting too much today TBH too far E and N within the shire, but good to see Audrey posting the Banchory/Fettercairn updates.. quite a few Shire residents ready for lampost duty this weekend too, Lorenzo is also a man on the spot, hope you get stuck up here (in a nice way of course!!) - keep the updates a comin'
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The east of Scotland would be able to see nothing but snow from these charts. Fifth undercutting snowmaggedon ECM operational in a row spanning three days and 60 hours. With that kind of consistency from perhaps the best model in the business, and with the UKMO (by hinting at the undercut rather than a northerly), GEM and the GFS singing not
overly dissimilar songs, some perhaps snowier even for western and central Scotland, I'm rather excited about where we're heading now. Snow Saturday, high chance of more widespread snow Monday, potential undercut midweek and all before peak SSW response time where a northeasterly reload is on the table. Get yer shovels oot...
OOOOoooo.. now that's very close to a ramp
Fits at yer sayin aboot e stratisfeer min, I canna tell if at warmin his jist gotten yoket , an' see at Jitstreem lousin aff tae france
Dinna fash yersel aboot at GFS een, I spied it an thocht Fit ye deein wi at Atlantic.
A'd pit siller on e snaw e noo,ken fit a mean.
Aye , ken it fine, am haudin' ya ta that
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some of those charts are sna'mazin' - everything is now crossed and am thinking about what my sacrifice to Ullr should be
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PS: talking about locations on avatars.. - Welcome onemanmows!!
are we still in "cut down" mode as I still can't see locations after servers went down the other night...
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Just back from work & can't bare to look
, has the GFS backtracked?Can someone put me out my misery please
Think Ally it's a case that yes they've taken 3 steps back, but the others (UKMO especially.. others please correct me if this not right) have also taken a step forward, more like they're about to meet. From what I see this still means cold and uncertain,, tames the easterley for this weekend.. and I've no idea what longer term implictions LOL!!
but am avoiding the MT for a while til they get it oot their systems
take care in there
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Doric Forecast :-
Wi the models haverin aboot a noo it's onybidys guess at tae fit will happen. I'm faur scunnert wi the model outputs
an the fecherin and bawlin goan on, gie the folk a skelp and a shoogle. The wither will dae fitiver the wither is gonna dea.
I weel say its gonna get cauld, snaw? maybes aye, maybes naa.
Wrap up weel and enjot it fitever. Just dinna skite. I'm awa tae play with my futrett.
subtitles on page 888
jist popped in before work...
am lovin' it Kerwin..
'specially the bit aboot giein' that "fecherin and bawlin" lot a guid shoogle!
there's ganna be a fair few folkies guy doon aboot the mou' fan the see the METO waarnin's, tho they shuldna fash themsel's
OH n' jist watch yersel' wi' yer futrett, n it disnae tak a chunk oot o ye..they can be guy coorse
made my day
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Mornin' slept in!!
but checking in here I see the jury is still out.. thanks for summaries,
not gonna read all MT today, coming back this evening for 12z summaries, not sure if this link is on the Kilty page Cheggars? (apologies if it is) - thought I'd copy it in here in case.. - side by side comparison of model frames
re:pong.. don't farmers usually spread muck when it's frosty or about to turn wintry? NL can u enlighten? you are our farmer forecast modele after all LOL!
a balmy 5.2C this am (neighbours WS is fixed yee haa!)
anyhoo have a guid day yi's a'
PS: Lorenzo I think a Forecast in Doric would a richt guid plan! - dis yon Googly thing hae a translate tho'.. (for the southerners who read us!)
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I just made it out alive - gl BFT
actually I think i've become quite expert at scanning the left column before deciding which posts to read LOL, some are blocked already but me bloock list is 2 years old scanning is quicker..
have to laugh at the bickering though.. nae need... nae need iv a'
... will try to check in early to see if it's the red corner or blue corner that are anywhere closer to a KO
and thanks to the lolo's (Lorenzo & Lomond) for keeping the summaries in here sane
nite nite
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looks like it's been a fun day!
the link to Ian F.s views/forecast is it on the board or his site?
much Toorping early doors in the MT when I checked on the 6z didn't have to read too much to get the jist
- prefer reading the Scottish banter anyway, that Fax chart SS just posted for Sat is that showing a possible snowy front coming in over the east, or is likely to be rain/sleet have read so much different views have now forgotten which days we are supposed to looking for cold/rain/snow - #losttheplotthose ECM charts look a bit tasty, too good to be true? LOL
and as for "Shannon Entropy" BFT, it could be you.. the unpredictability of unpredictableness
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Boom it is away..
2009 users are online (in the past 15 minutes)
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2,010 Most Online
Nice analog years too...
Good Years them : - now 2475!!
I have a something for them.. the answer to "Will it snow in.......?"
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2,010 Most Online
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So from what I can gather.. this is a very lay person's view/summary of the MT with the snippets I found interesting... in case anyone else hasn't got time to wade through the 30-40 pages that appeared around tea-time
The Models are now in agreement for some cold this weekend, this may not mean snaw for everyone.. but this apparently is just the beginning of what could be a prolonged spell. Chiono.. bless his socks I don't know how he has the patience... has been trying to say that while the effects of the SSW - Satrospheric warming - (that's the really high up bittie) possibly won't show themselves until day 20-30 he believes that a more immediate smaller side effect will show itself first - 5-14 days and that would what the models are now showing for this weekend?
IF, Fergie gave a small update of the METO's immediate thoughts about the early evening runs and in it, or the twitter post that was linked, said the METO would not be immediately updating any forecasts as confidence in the Models was at an all time low.. (don't shoot the messenger OK!)
TEITS, as he said earlier....repeated himself again
Steve Murr gave the ultimate in booms and said "BOOMAGE" in reaction to the ECM
last I looked there were 1 or 2 already starting to come in and say "but there's more to UK than just the SE/west [fill in blank]" as if blaming the, yet to nail, models for not putting the snow clouds/528 Dam/-8 Uppers over them.. so I gracefully exited the madhouse before they came off the happy pills and started "what if"s.."
HTH
& happy model watching
Ian Brown, as you can see from my new signature, when pressed for a response to the ECM backtracking into line with the other models said WTF! and it is now, ALREADY, the highest liked post on NW (linked earlier in this thread too)
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Well I ventured into the MT to try to keep up with the "will it, won't it, ECM" euphoria, and even with skimming for posters names and likes, I still couldn't do it!! skipped the last 6 pages.. but at least it's not TOORPing... yet
all smiles and a new signature to boot hehe..
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Ruzzi!! OMG those charts.. almost drooling material
Yeah, and actually for once I'd rather we don't get it too cold this weekend. Eldest son's team are scheduled to play a cup game on Sat afternoon, this will be the third time it has been scheduled. It's against a higher league team, but given they played another team from the higher league last weekend in a friendly (so doesn't count for the Football Forecast Model), and won, I think they have a good chance of winning this match. At a later point in the season it might be different, depending on falling fitness, fixture pile-up etc.
Also going for a 3rd time scheduled cup game on Sunday, but our lot've nae actually played for about 12+ weeks (lost count now) so fitness and pile-up issues will also be an issue at some point now too - anyway it's gonna be fun whatever happens eh! You may be luckier with the Saturday fixture I was kinda hoping that it would be later Sunday this 'excitement' would start however Ruzzi seems to think earlier in weekend now LOL.. we will see
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Morning.. have been lurking intermittently and enjoying your summaries of the M(ad)T - haven't been in there the whole season so far this year
haven't needed entertainment, it's great in here- thanks SS for the link to the Strat thread.. noo that's interesting
Ravelin was it you who suggested the Football Forecast Model?... whoever it was it looks bang on to me - crap for the footie starting this Sunday but good for the caul' lovers, mebbeees anyway
Interesting times ahead and SS would you stop with those charts that's just teasing!! -- j/k keep 'em coming right up to T+12 please! ..
<OT> Congrats Catch, belated Happy Birthday BMW, enjoy your trip BFT...
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howham ref: 1999 in these parts afaicr - it was an early "white" as in from 14th-26/27th it was fairly heavy - I had to make my own way (no ambulances running) to the maternity hospital, after that no-one could visit, at least without their snow-shoes!!
Xmas day was still white, but not sure snow actually "officially" fell?
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some flakes did make it over't hills.. emphasis on a few.. icing sugar coating here, and a lot "warmer" at +2deg
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warmest it's been all day!! @ -1
still white ootside, mebbee, just mebbee a few flakes tonite if those clouds can make it over the mountains..
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A chilly start to the day in Kemnay this morning. A nice covering of frost on the car, but the nice easy stuff to scrape thankfully, not the nasty frozen on ice. There's still snow on the ground where it's been deepest and/or shaded and and thick ice too. In fact the ice on the local park was lethal this morning, both on the paths and in the grass, and seems to have gained a huge degree of slippiness since yesterday.
Bennachie looked magnificent in the sun this morning. Bright white and it may just be my imagination but it looks like it may have gained a fresh coat of snow yesterday at some point. It'll be a pity if the predicted mild, rainy weekend washes it all away.
Ravelin
Yeah it caught a few of the snow showers yesterday! - there was a fleeting one reached Kemnay about 1pm, but there were many hanging over Mither Tap most of the morning
nice and white, tho' slippy! -
Cold and Black Ice are today's features..
Some snow cover has made it through the windy weekend, mostly on the grass, shaded parts of gardens and can see the park still has some
Nowcast: tiny showers of rain/sleet/snow still passing through - so watch those roads peeps!
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Scotser, I think you are quite close, if not 100% spot on with the Highland clearances part of your observations.. the sad fact is that that we will never know for sure
Have been doing bit dabblin' with the Family history this last few years and even when you know, you don't know, if you know what I mean? LOL (3 glasses of wine!) in other words you can follow the stories but at some point you have to "take a romantic view" (bit like this snow myth thing
)easier?, sometimes times just got so tough they had to move their stills or their winters just got so bad they got flooded out and had to move..??
personally I like the hidden/illicit Stills stories best
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A lovely lying inch this morning on the hill but temperature was climbing quite quickly and the wind was picking up, so I'm not sure what'll be left when I get home. Quite surprised to see snow lying in Edinburgh this morning......and while the Pentlands look splendid, they've not scored as much snow as the Ochils have. Absolutely pasted!
Oh and the view west from the Forth Bridges this morning was something else. Snow-covered hills everywhere. Beautiful!
As promised, here's the link to the wee film I made of last Sunday's snowshoe trek over Ben Lawers in Perthshire. It's quite a treat to get such good conditions so early in the season, and to think we've had all this week's snowfalls on top of that. Must be seriously loaded on some slopes now.........so if you're headed into the hills keep safe and do check the forecasts on the Avalanche Information Service, who resume their service this weekend thank goodness!
Here's to a cold, snowy December
haven't even got the end of vid yet Scotster, but lovin' it thank you for posting it "shorts n t-shirt weather" indeed!!
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Here in Kemnay the rain is on, but we are still managing to hold onto a fairly decent covering, so far! - outside still looks like 85% cover, field still got coverage - here nearer homestead, Kennel roof still about 3-4in - will it see the weekend out? hope so as I too am a believer in it "sitting aboot waiting fir mair"
my thermometer is broke and neighbours weather station not showing temps, but the phone app thing says 3C - technical huh!
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I used to visit my cousin up in Kemnay quite a bit. She lived in Fyfe Park and had trouble getting to work just across in Inverurie due to snow on quite a few occasions. Can I ask one of the locals just how far away Bennachie is from Kemnay?. She was a keen walker and climbed up there often.and said that on occasion she did it from home? What was the local nickname for that hill?
Here -2c and clear just now. Just a skiff of snow around in the West end from this mornings showers.
now you've got us started.. I'm not a walker, but hubby and family are so we're now reminiscing, I just walk up it when I'm driven to to the starting points..LOL!
Facts (shamelessly copy and pasted from Forestry Site (Gordon way trail) as I can't think of a better way to explain it)
This challenging long distance route runs from the Bennachie Centre to Suie in the west. Allow a day to complete the full trail.
An exciting shorter circuit can be done by walking along part of the Gordon Way, then climbing up onto the Bennachie plateau on the well-made path and returning to the Centre by Mither Tap summit.
Gordon Way Trail can be started from Bennachie in Forests of Moray and Aberdeenshire. Kemnay, Inverurie, and Monymusk are the nearest towns or villages.In other words it's kinda the central focal point for all the villages around here, My (Kemnay's) view looks over it to the West towards Alford/Monymusk/Lord's Throat, over the Suie, the Mither Tap summit is slightly to right as I view it (these are two main ones shown in my pictures)
There are 4 main centres at which to start your walk up it, (all are detailed on that Gordon walk page) basically one on each main compass point, though there are many unpublished local entry points, i.e. forestry trails, where you could start so it's quite hard to say what your cousin's favourite may have been. The nearest Official Entry point to Kemnay is via Riverside Road to the Bennachie Centre and after a bit of googling and arguing with hubby we've settled on a distance about 5 and half miles..from Kemnay to Starting point of walk.
As for local nickname, there isn't one as far as I know - though Bennachie itself comprises of a plateau and 5 summits, so perhaps there were local route names? Oxen Craig being another.. maybe you are thinking of the "Mither Tap" itself, which is the favourite one to climb for many as it's striking and not so tough..
extra info, Mither Tap is so named because of the shape of that particular summit, -- now think about your Mother's Tap >> i.e milk
ermmm boobies.. the picture I posted this am didn't do it justice because it's hard to see the white on white depth so here's a pic that might help you get why it's named as it is either tilt your head to the left or imagine a girlie lying down
HTH your memories!
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well that's settled then, not going anywhere this evening, car is at bottom of hill after a eventful try to get up involving a hedge, a bit of backwards motion without reverse gear, sideways tilt, then a 270deg slide to make the decision of which way to go - there was a car waiting on this before attempting to come down, it went sliding into wall!!
don't think I've seen it this bad so early on, with the sleet/rain/quick freezing & snow top up mix it is now officially an ice-rink, had on socks over me boots just to walk down it..
I actually want more snow rather than sleet/rain/frost - not being greedy - but that's the only thing that will help right now
looks like mid/central's turn next - GL!!
- and Embra and Fort SS!!
, has the GFS backtracked?
haven't needed entertainment, it's great in here
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Snooz
Dew Point here now 1.1C - and we finally have sleet
What a difference a few miles is making! Temp 2.2C/1.1C DP
couple hours behind you
According to raintoday, the precip seems to be stalling/increasing right over the top of us all in Aberdeen/shire specially southwards, just need that cold to set in proper now
.. more snow than rain in the ongoing shower right now..