Cheviot

This is an argument that some developing nations use to justify their growth, and partly why the USA has been slow to impose any regulation on its fossil fuel burning. However, the evidence and analysis of it by the unbiased mainstream scientific community has demonstrated anthroporphic driven climate change. The program you saw was probably on C4 or some other sensationalist broadcaster which find odd-ball scientists to justify their conspiracy agenda programs: a nice way to drive their budgets with dumbed-down science (how many of these 'documentaries' site mainstream views from respected institutions? Big fat zero). If you want the facts, you're better off subscribing to decent scientific journals in which peer review maintains the status quo, rather than some TV producer.

Try www.wunderground.com, but be aware that this site was started in the USA. However, you'll find many UK private weather stations in addition to the numerous private airfields and RAF bases. You may also find the following useful: http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

The current trend in solar cycles is for a cooling period over the next few hundred years. However, GW and cloud insulation models predict increased temperatures over the next 100, so somewhere bewteen the two may be closer to reality in the years to come.

Read this the other day: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/aug/07/disasters which proposes that volcanicity increases with changes in weighting from ice and water on the earth's crust. To summarise, as ice caps melt the crust under the ice moves and volcanicity increases. This could act as a natural feedback to the GW outlook by reducing global temperatures through increased stratospheric light dispersion due to volcanic particles. Thought that this was an interesting angle on GW and the earth's inter-relationship with its ecosystems.

Thought I'd add to this Winter's conjecture by adding some observations from nature (I know - about a month earlier than las year's similar debate!). Homespun indicators of forth coming cold winter: "If St. Bartholomew's be clear, A prosperous autumn comes that year." (St. Bartholomew's - 24th August) -wait and see, but looks like some rain is on the way for the 24th If the first week be warm, then winter will be white and long. -may be: warmer than what, though? Squirrels burying their nuts - the deeper their hole, the colder it'll be - Lots of fruit and berries on the trees - true this year: apples and plum trees are heavily laden Anyone seen a Waxwing? Based on this analysis, too early to predict. I've certainly never seen so much fruit on the trees. My plum tree has been wrecked by the heavy fruits ripping whole branches down.

I wish I could be that sanguine. Alas, the weather systems around our soggy isle tend to deflect Siberian fronts away. At the time, the press was on a major ramp to support their Polar hysteria. All that did was undermine the few good Wintry days we had. :o Looking forward to multiple hysterics and end-of-the-world headlines this winter. What happened to a measured response to the weather? It seemed to coincide with the BBC's and MetO drive about 6 years ago to publish Weather Warnings, which are now so abundant that it's difficult to sort the genuine cataclysm from the mild pitter patter of rain that we actually receive. :o

Their previous forecasts were'nt too good: http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/for_nao.html However, for the purposes of enjoying the my delusion, I'm happy to foster more than a slight cold ramping desire. Schnow...schnow....schnoooooowwwwwwwwwwwww.............

Interesting localised anomaly over Bordeaux - must be all the fermenting grapes :o

All coming together nicely for a cold February.

A dream cold event! Probably more likely to be somewhere between the two - maritime soak followed by / coincide with polar air mass. Good snow for the Black Mountains and Dartmoor. Rain for the rest of the South. North - business as usual.

The observed cycles do point to a colder winter. This is based on: 1. Hale's sun spot polarity law - determines solar activity based on magentic cycles within the sun. 2. Kepler's 3 laws of plantary motion - the earth's orbit is eliptical around the sun, so there are periods in our winter that coincide with attaining the greatest distance frim the sun. 3. Chandler's wobble - small 'wobbles' in the earth's rotation that are thought to impact weather events such as El Nino 4. Angle of earth's axis orientation to the sun - determines seasonally whether Northern or Southern hemisphere's face the sun. 5. volcanic activity/stratospheric pollution The running combination of these processes has coincided like a giant mechanical clock to create periodic climate events in the past and this, like a clock, has a certain inevitability to it. Complicating this is the observed climate warming in the past 50 years which may 'soften' the cycle, but don't expect it not to influence our weather one way or the other. The mid-40s and early 60's were tremendously cold here in the UK: the '62-'63 event was responsible for destroying many small animals (the number of hedge row birds plummetted after these events). My father recalled how on the Welsh farm he grew up on that during the '63 event all many small animals (predators and prey) would come to cower around the farmhouse where the walls protected the animals from the wind and where food from the kitchen could be thown out. Foxes and birds, side-by-side humbled from their normal behavoiurs by the severity of the cold. Then there was the great melt which flooded swathes of the countryside after the snow accumulation. The mid-80's didn't deliver (thankfully) the same degree of cold but did provide a few snowy events. 2007/8 points to something cold happening, but it is the degree which is open to debate.

I'll tell you where you're least likely to wake up to snow: Swanage in Dorset. I grew up there and have never woken up to snow. We've had at most a cm, but it only lasts half a day. Last sprinkling was back in 1988. We always longed for it to snow, but on the upside we had early and long summers.

Looks like there's going to be a big storm over the Bosporus.

Sky's report of said prediction issue: http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1234637,00.html

Do you think the potential of an EL Nino event in 2006/2007 will aid cold pooling off Greenland? If there's a reduced hurrican season, then is it right to assume that the gulf stream is marginally cooler? Obviously, if both are true then we should be set for a cooler Winter.

I just noticed that the press are beginning to mention the possibility of an El Nino event for 2006/ 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5345184.stm El Nino events are associated with reduced hurricane activity in the Carribean and higher rainfall in Northern Europe. Assuming the early indicators are correct, that an El Nino event is beginning, then we can look forward to more rainfall. I'm not sure if El Nino winters are statistically milder, but I suspect this may be the case based on memory. So, may be our best chance of a decent snowfall will be generated by cold pooling over Siberia/ Scandanavia extending towards the UK, the warm Atlantic maritime or Polar maritime air colliding with this somewhere over the UK leading to an occluded front and heavy snow; this type of event lead to the heavy snows in 1947, though I'm uncertain whether this was an El Nino year. In other words, it's business as usual this Winter!

There has been some surface damage to limestone buildings/ statues that were built by the Victorians. Granted, the impact is not worthy of flag waving or hysteria, but the insidious erosion will ruin any fine limestone masonry over time.

Any tampering with natural (shifting) balance is dangerous. A good example of utilising chemistry to impose our needs on the weather this way is cloud seeding; silver iodide is released into the atmosphere. China has tested this recently, in an attempt to remedy a worsening drought condition in one of its provinces. The area where seeding occurred benefitted, but other surrounding areas suffered flash floods and extensive surface erosion. More distant areas, including Tibet and Nepal subsequently reported much reduced rainfall, and they wasted no time in blaming China for their reduced cropping at harvest time. Pump S into the almophere and our limestone buildings will dissolve!

Needed a trim -far too hot. Can't wait for Winter proper!