londonsnow
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Jeezus H: 884mb :huh:
URNT12 KNHC 190835
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSEDM. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A Wilma OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
Now the strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded..history making infront of our eyes.
Gilbert was 888mb
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
that is extraordinary
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bloody hell. i went to bed when she was a cat2, now a cat 5?????!!! how on earth.....?
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 182341
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS
WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A
HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...
295 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.
WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH... 88 KM/HR...WITH A
GUST OF 63 MPH... 101 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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that's pretty amazing. she'll be a cat 2 within minutes
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May i suggest the thread be renamed Watching Wilma
:unsure:
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
or Whirlwind Wilma
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ps. shouldnt we change the name of this thread. we arent waiting anymore....!
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SST:
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
cheers mondy!
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wow, wilma's really getting going isnt she. rapid intensification. i guess her path will be crucial to what happens next but as everyone suggests we have at least a cat 3 on our hands at some point over the next few days. where can i get sst's for wilma's current postion anyone? cheers LS
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 181755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
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wilma appears to have stalled!
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the energy that wilma is exhibiting is truely awesome. this is a system about to explode
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
and here's the latest
000
WTNT34 KNHC 172048
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA POISED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225
MILES... 365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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the energy that wilma is exhibiting is truely awesome. this is a system about to explode
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well here's wonderful willma. and can i just say it's been a pleasure partaking in this historic event with you all.
looks like the yuk might get her, but there's a deffinite possibility of gom penetration also so we'll see what happens but whatever will happen will happen within the next 96 hours.
keep yer eyes glued to the satelite feeds. On future developments alpha is a definite possibility this year. There's another 2 tropical waves out in the atlantic on their way in.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
yes, alpha and beta look like they're on their way
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Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but do i detect a right-turn now ie N by E?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
The intense convection to the south of it is playing a major part now.
Wilma has huge scope to rapidly intensify. I would reckon pressure will fall a lot more now too.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
yep, wilma does seem to be getting her act together now. i reckon we'll get a cat 4 out of this one if she slips into the gulf
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aside from wilma, strikes me there are other potential developments to the west in the atlantic.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/150925.shtml
Well, it's factually correct from their point of view. Having done no recon yet, it does appear to be a tropical depression forming (I must admit, it looks to me like one's already formed, though I'm hardly an authority)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i'm no authority either, but it really does look like we have a wilma on our hands
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Looking at the satelite pictures, a Tropical Depression has clearly formed, i am going to support the UKMO track on this one which shows the system moving slowly westward but curving northward to go through the Yukatan Straight qwith a probale hit to the west New Orleans as a category 5 hurricane due to near perfect conditions, i expect a category 1 hurricane by monday night with landfall during thursday morning.
Here is the UKMO model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
yeah she's (wilma's) clearly got her act together. next advisory will flag her up as a TD.
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I am taking my family to Orlando, Florida next thursday for a 2 week holiday, is there much chance that this could come our way?
And if it does, will we just be catching the edge of it, or is there and chance that we could get a direct hit?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
impossible to say at present. odds are massively against a direct hit if you consider that anywhere on the gulf coast could get a direct hit, ie the orlando coastline represents a minor fraction of the gulf coastline as a whole. furthermore wilma has not yet even been classified as a TD so lets not jump the gun
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he he. I meant max potential temperature on those boundries. (late night is getting the better of me I think. lol)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
me too. i shall make my way to the sack methinks. and dream of wilma.....wasnt she a character in the flintstones?
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sorry. the top map on the link is the minimum potential pressure. I posted it in response to the question of how much energy is left in the area.
The boundries on the map are the max potential. Both of these maps are curently a day old, and the area where the current TD is forming is given a minimum potential pressure of 880 mb over seas of 28-29 Celcius, so if the upper level conditions are right, a storm could potentially be as powerful as any time earlier this year.
Not trying to teach you to suck eggs here by the way. I'm just explaining what I meant by potential.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
cheers for that crimsone. well maybe wilma will be the next/last big one for this season. we'll see.....LS
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some interesting potential...
http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i'm being thick/have had too much wine. why is that potential? sorry
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You'd wonder sometimes do we overanalyse weather a bit.I mean Rita turned out to be nothing extrordinary,though still obviously quite dangerous.
I mean it's the same on here when Winter comes and we always up the ante and the speculation yet it rarely turns out anything extraordinary!
I know it's the half the fun and I'm as guilty as anybody I guess :lol:
By the way the synoptics in our own Country have definatly taken a backward step as the atlantic type weather kicks back in.Our best hope of a cold winter
was blocking,in my view,and the next month will tell a lot on how the Winter will unfold
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
ah but the thing is rita was the third most intense hurricane on record at one point, sub 900mb and awesome. we can be grateful that she lost intensity before landfall but whilst she was hurting no one in the gulf of mexico she was an exciting and marvellous icon of mother nature
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heres the update
000
WTNT33 KNHC 240100
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 232259
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. A NOAA BUOY AT
CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA... ON THE COAST NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 54 MPH WERE RECENTLY
REPORTED AT GALVESTON TEXAS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...28.5 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
:unsure:
Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
to be honest this media hype is bordering on irresponsible