[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Going for Rain here today

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Well, apparently, the wind chill factor in these parts is around -8°c!!!

That could explain it!!

brrrrrrrrrrr

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Hope Ian doesn't mind me quoting his blog but looks like it may be a repeat for Glos tomorrow and then rain rain rain!!!

"Worth adding that tomorrow (Tuesday) could yield similar weather in many of the same areas. I'm expecting to see snow over Exmoor early on Tuesday - possibly quite heavy - with a broad swathe of rain again at lower levels but this turning progressively to snow from around the M4 corridor northwards. Tghe risk of heavy snow tomorrow for the Forest of Dean is greater than today; definitely a situation we'll need to monitor closely. For wat it's worth, the rest of the week promises further spells of distinctly inclement weather and the accumulation of rainfall could well cause localised (surface water) flooding problems for some areas."

Incredible quiet on here and the model output forum today, guess the weather isn't that exciting as the last few weeks have been?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I was thinking the same thing... The wind yesterday, though not mild, was not as cold as it is today...

Feels very chilly!

Glad someone else thinks the same - thought I was coming down with a cold or something!!

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Just been out to lunch and is it me or does it feel colder today since the rain/sleet/snow fell? Does this mean the rain forecast tomorrow may be snow?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Still heavy snow here.

About 2 cm on the grass.

Roads are just thick slush

Amazing how here in chelt there is nothing on the ground. There are now big flakes coming down but not settling. Wonder if i'll get home to Gloucester later?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Looking at the various motorway cameras in gloucestershire it looks like the snow is settling to the west and south of Gloucester.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Ian just updated his blog again - http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

looks like rush hour will be worst for north Glos. I see the forest of dean have it quite bad at the moment. Guess it's going to move east through the day.

DOH: thanks Ian for your update!

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Big flakes now reached centre of chelt. Mixed in with rain though still

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Well according the the radar i should have some rain now...

Still dry with fog.

It's raining in Chelt!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

NAE is coming out now for 12Z and even at T9 it increases the snow risk for the SW, high ground of Devon and maybe even cornwall are highlighted as early as 09.00pm this evening !.

It also has DP's generally even lower...

12Z GFS has fallen into line with the NAE, and massively increases the snow signal for the areas highlighted by the METO for tomorow, the 06Z didn't really have much of a snow signal at all.

sounds like it might be a work from home day

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Just received this via works email...

"Wed 17th Feb - from information received via Police Contingency Group

The forecast this morning from our Professional Partners Met Office Advisor - Arwyn Harris is that we are expecting substantial & disruptive snowfall during Thursday 18th.

It will snow today, but this will not be significant and will thaw overnight. Rain early tomorrow will change to snow by 10.00 am, and it will continue snowing until approx 7.00 pm in the evening. This will result in up to 10 cm of snow even in low-lying areas through Gloucestershire and Gloucester City itself. It will not be windy so there will be no significant drifting.

The forecast is then that the temperature will become very cold for 2-3 days, therefore thaw is unlikely and the icy conditions will lead to significant disruption.

The Police are putting arrangements in place similar to during the snow event we had in January."

Interesting stuff!!

7&Y

Thanks for the update - better put the walking shoes in the car I guess

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Dp's are nowing starting to fall, off the back of the SSE wind (Southampton -1 and Bournemouth +1).

Temps are rather high (IF 6C can be called high), but this is due to the sun levels at, as it's quite a glorious day !.

Ideally we need Dp's of -1 or -2 across the SW to encourage snowy precip. Currently 4C at Bristol so will hopefully start to tumble.

I was going to mention developments further on down the line, but will wait 24 hrs for the models to firm up a bit.

Iceberg - are you hinting at mild or cold further down the line?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Metoffice now showing RED for Bristol/Bath area and orange in Somerset

Still orange when I go there? Can't see how they would issue a red warning yet?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

So,

Let me get this right?

Snowmegeddon tomorrow?

or rainmegeddon

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Sleeting here.

I cant see much of a major event happening over the next few days like the meto say.

But would be nice if it did.

Lynxus,

It will be interesting to see how the metoffice look at the latest models as Ian has already mentioned. Could be a snow day tomorrow? :unsure:

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Hi Monkey, if it's what I saw on this morning's BBC graphics I think I noticed 14:00.

Thanks Kumquat. Just looked at the bbc weather map for Cheltenham and the snow seems to stick around most of the day :unsure:

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Actually - let me just offer a major change of NAE emphasis tomorrow - new run offers 10-20cm snow potential in a band from SE Wales across to Lincs (including Glos) and clearly has makings of a high profile event; however this major change from last NAE prog is noteworthy (it's because new run wants to depress the BL temp's further tonight).... next run awaited before UKMO decides whether to go with early warning over and above current advisory.

Thanks Ian for the update. Was there any indication of when this would occur? EDIT: Sorry I meant what time of day?

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I notice that the early warning for snow tomorrow has been extended to Gloucestershire. Could be an interesting day!

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Heavy graupel/snow shower here just then, just some small flakes left now

Nice start - more to come

SK

Yep, just passed through the centre of chelt. road was white, now wet

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Very Dark skies to the north of Cheltenham - will it snow or will it rain?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Ian has also uopdated his blog, http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

Interesting to read about the Wet Bulb Freezing Level (WBFL) which is coming into play for the weather tomorrow.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Metoffice weather warning just updated while I was looking on the site :lol:

South West England: Bath + NE Somerset

Bristol

Gloucestershire

N Somerset

S Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

Heavy Snow Wed 20 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales on Wednesday.

Outbreaks of rain are expected to turn increasingly to sleet or wet snow, with accumulations of 1 to 3cm in places, and locally 4 to 7cm. Over southeast Wales, there is a risk of up to 10cm of snow on ground over 200m.

This may lead to some disruption to travel.

Issued at: 1121 Tue 19 Jan

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

The M4 webcams in the Swansea area show it falling as snow!

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It's a just a huge low and of course Ireland is further West so gets hit first.

Thanks