fiftytwodegreesnorth

Yes a more organised area of snow is heading in the right direction to hit the West Mids region. a few green spots appearing in the precipitation. Its always a pleasure to see snow dropping out of the sky. This is certainly more interesting then the cold and cloudy forecasts of the last few days.

Certainly a lot of excitement and anticipation building for the beast from the east. The emerging weather pattern is the only one that can produce the holy grail of cold weather for the UK, especially southern parts. However caution needs to be exercised with this pattern as the UK is always at the end of the line and so much can go wrong even within the reliable timeframes. Wasn’t the infamous end of January 2001 (can anyone post the chart) cold spell that never materialised get to within 3 days before going pear shaped. Famously John Kettley had predicted this a full week in advance in the national media, preparing everyone for the worse. In the end easterly winds veered northwards over the North Sea, and just clipped the east coast of Scotland. I guess for every 2001, there is a 1987 or 1991 and there will always be a real chance. The law of averages would suggest we are due a direct hit this time.

Yes Gord. The showers are just exiting Wales but on current trajectory should reach the West Mids in 1-2 hours, lets hope they maintain intensity as they could give a covering!

Looking at the radar i would guess another hour of snow before the system clears away south of the West Mids. Looks good for the south east later on. Happy to see some snow flakes and it could get interesting tonight with the Cheshire Gap streamer.

We have small snow flakes falling in West Birmingham now.

Currently cold rain in Bearwood and mainly light. Looking like a pulse of heavier precipitation heading across from mid Wales, may make it to the West Mids. Something to keep an eye on. Temp / dp's should start to drop now. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

To me tomorrows event is down to nowcasting and will only be clear when the system appears on the radar. Plenty of occasions in the past where the forecast had snow heading towards the West Midlands, only for it to slip east at the last minute and give the East Midlands members joy. But having said that i expect to see snow falling if the system pivots enough to the north to reach the Midlands region, but difficult to see it settling given the time of day and warmish ground temperatures, and likelihood of it commencing as rain. Rural areas and higher ground favoured obviously. Certainly people should keep expectations very low at this stage to avoid disappointment. Also METO should update warnings in a shortwhile.

I have to say I am totally underwhelmed by this cold spell, as I sit and watch the cold rain fall outside. Although we still have much of Feb and March to see through, there is a distinct theme emerging this season and that is how marginal it’s been for snow fall, and more often than not the wrong end of marginal. I have not seen more than 1 cm lying on the ground this winter, but I can recall many occasions where snow has fallen. However, given the background signals have not been in in our favour throughout the season; No HLB (the holy grail Greenland high is absent yet again) deep cold in NE USA, which has fuelled the jet/polar vortex in the wrong area; and lack of serious cold pools in Europe. We should nevertheless consider ourselves lucky to even be talking about cold and snow, even though ultimately it’s not delivered, but what’s more frustrating is the effort following the models only for it to deliver so little reward. Although there is some further speculation about a mid-month northerly plunge ( currently looking more potent than more recent non-event) I wouldn’t hold my breath. I would guess only 1 in 10 northerlies delivers something special to our region. I have to say the, despite some poor short term forecasting (especially WRT rain or snow forecasts) the Met office deserve a bit of credit for the mid-range/ long range forecasting this winter IMO.

Looks like the band is intensifying to the south west of Bham. Would expect places in Worcestershire are currently seeing heavy falls. But the radar showed some signs of this shifting north wards up 1745 to effect the Bham area for a few more hours yet. The latest bbc forecast shows this band eventually progressing northwards over night. Expect school closures now quite widely.

I have measured around 11cm in my rear garden in Bearwood, which puts it on a par with dec 2010 in terms ofdepth. however the drifting, winds and current -3 degree temp that my weather station is reading makes this a better snow event. I would say looking like little further accumulations based on radar projections.

I would say that if we see consistency in the model runs this time tomorrow re. Friday and wkend, then we could start to get excited. The W Midlands could be in the sweet spot if the system moves north enough. A few agreed in the model output thread that its quite similar to 7/8th Feb 96, which if you are old enough to remember delivered up to 8 inches or more in the Midlands and western areas. Not saying we will get the same, but with cold embedded, any snow that does fall wont struggle to settle like it did on Monday. Watch this space..... I will post some charts if i can find

Quick question to Steve M or the other experts. am i right in thinking the charts for Friday and wkend are looking very similar to early Feb 96, which gave many western parts and the Midlands impressive snow depth 8 inches here in Brum. I seem to recall a low pressure system coming against a Scandi block then.

My first attempt at this will be 1.9c Cold for first 2 thirds with exceptional cold mixed with less cold periods. I expect a proper milder breakdown to occur eventually towards the end of the month.