MattS
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Posts posted by MattS
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A little message from little ol me......get Christmas shopping done, get any long distance travel out of the way because 16-23 will see punishing winter weather returning which is likely to continue to well into 2011. This is a stand up warning
BFTP
WOW! Can't believe i have read this before!? Thats one frozen winter in prospect! Belated thanks BFTP and RJS for putting this together. Looks like you've got the start pretty much spot on!
Very interesting to see the La Nina pattern almost being almost overwritten by the persistent northern blocking and a more southerly tracking jet. This winter could well trundle on. Good luck for the rest of the winter guys!Looking forward to the imminent phase 2...
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Mountain torques still negative:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif
which means tendency in relative angular momentum is being held back.
Models must be picking up a strong signal for rapid increase in mountain torque over the next 5 - 8 days though sending out that amplification of the jet. If that fails to materialise in the next 5 days, this pattern is in trouble and will set further south than currently programmed.
Niggling doubts just how strong the +ve mountain torque will be given perhaps the upcoming drop in angular momentum - net result perhaps the lowering of the block to north Atlantic as described as the GWO pings back to phase 8. Also, keep in mind the reasoning for the insane heights projected to our north are a result of the polar jet arcing alrmingly poleward. This more vulnerable to erosion from heights to the north.
Hi Glacier Point
Just a quick question regarding this. Do you see the GFS 12z hinting at this type of solution, seeing as there's a much broader scatter in the ensembles this evening. Is there any update on how strong the mountain torques are now likely to be?
Also just wanted to thanks for your input into these forums. I always read your updates even if i don't fully understand some aspects, your explanations certainly go a long way in helping. Do you have any recommendations on further reading on the subject?
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In the winter and autumn discussion area.....under winter discussion thread with all the others.
BFTP
Thanks BFTP, gonna head over there right now!
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Very interesting read Paul, thanks.
Looks like his colours being firmly nailed to the mast there. Fair play to him for sticking his neck out and painting a fairly confidently clear picture of how things will pan out at this range with very little vagueness!
Of course the proof is in the pudding and we will soon be able to follow and see how this pans out with Xmas day charts soon appearing on the GFS....i for one will be watching avidly.
Paul, is'nt pattern matching slightly dubious game to play when considering many other influencing external factors (teleconnections, solar cycles etc) would need to factored in. Unless, like he seems to be suggesting, that EVERYTHING moves in a rhythmic cycle!
Definitely one to watch.
PS BFTP where can i find yours and RJS winter forecast please
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Quite unexpectedly, snow is getting heavier and less sleety in Norwich- if temperatures fall a bit more, this could start to settle again.
Indeed TWS. I've been monitoring that area of precipitation drifting in from the east. Slightly heavier stuff here too coupled with colder continental feed as TEITS mentioned hmm....something to keep an eye on!
The temp steady here around freezing btw with a dew of -1
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Had light snow occasionally moderate on and off all morning despite a slow thaw. I notice that theres an area of precipitation drifting in on a direct east to westerly direction http://www.raintoday.co.uk/. Temp just below freezing. Encouraging to see a slight fall in temps around the region although i'm under no illusions that this is the beginning of the end for this impressive cold spell!
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Come tomorrow the front lies NE-SW.
Personally I feel our precip isn't going to come via the continent. Our precip is going to be due to the combination of the front and the effects of the E,lys across the N Sea. So technically we're going to create our own precip. This is why I said last night that once the flow changes from ENE,ly to E,ly the risk of heavier snow moves away from the SE and extends N. Our best chance of heavy snow is between Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Back to the radar and the area across the Wash is increasing in width and intensity. At this rate come 2hrs time we may see widespread light/moderate snow across the region this evening.
Very good point TEITS. Looking at recent radar slides it appears some convection is kicking off just north east of here...light snow falling now. Certainly a case of keeping a close eye on the radar this evening
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Thanx Matt
Yeah we were struggling really before this, only had 2cm from Tuesday Night then another centimetre Wednesday, got a nice 3cm this morning and now up to about 3cm from this, a good 2-3" on the grass now - between 5-7cm and still it is chucking it down!
Great stuff....not sure of exact totals here yet but looking like 4-5" now. Similarly to you we've been getting dribs and drabs, in fact until yesterday very little. I'm hearing stories that places like Felixstowe have been 'cashing in' during the past few days! Very localised but highly exciting! Bring on tomorrow!
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Latest Radar @ 23z shows it Narrowing out at the Southern End but a definate Interaction with the NE In the Estuary pushing it more WSW Up the Estuary, it is wether it can hold it together, places further towards London on the N Kent Coast could be in line, further convection on the eastern side further North East in the Blackwater Estuary.
Paul S
Glad to hear you got some decent snow showers there Paul and the Suffolk streamer is being pass down the line! It's been pretty special here tonight with a constant stream of heavy snow running down the coast and depositing on it's way through! All of the pain of seeing the rest of the country get some decent falls all made up tonight...i knew this synoptic set-up just had to deliver something...at some point! In nor-easters we trust!!
Hoping for some more train-like showers tomorrow. -
Quick question for one of the more experienced members....looking at the latest Fax's for the weekend, inparticularly Sunday, the thicknesses are trending higher.....will this have an impact on convection/instability and ultimately produce less intense snow showers? Although the easterly thats shown looks like a real 'lazy wind' to me!
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BBC Local forecasts (yes i know i should know better and get the seaweed out instead!) for another few inches tomorrow for initially Norfolk then into Suffolk and Essex...
btw heavy-moderate snow again after a slight lull
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Whoops forgot N Cambs
Have you go anything yet Paul? Some monster flakes coming down here in Ipswich now....quite a covering already! What i like the most is the apparent lack of breeze! How are we looking for tomorrow and friday? Convective stuff possible?
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Finally we've joined the party here.....heavy Snow now here in Ipswich! I was starting to get a bit paranoid!
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As I suspected yesterday and well forecast by the Meto this one I have to say, my Jackpot zones were M3 Coridoor and M25/Surrey near to the South Downs, also chose Basingstoke so happy with that.
My fears that Wednesdays Snow will be a damp squib looks to be proving right IMBY, Although places further towards Teits or down in Kent, Sussex may get a surprise with more than they expected for today.
Tomorrow sees Sunshine and Showers and also Friday.
Sat & Sun still T72-T96
Got about 0.000023cm so happy the kids can see some snow but then was never expecting much from it anyway
Paul S
Hi Paul
Faired even worse than you from this....zilch!
Do you think thats our lot for some real decent snowfall for our part of the world? I'm not expecting much from the trough today and like you say with showers we could get lucky from the odd shower. The real fly in the oinment (which has been others pleasure) is that low! I wish it would just move along! I can't quite believe the pretty special synoptics we are in, yet have'nt seen a single flake! -
False dawn here... the large flakes were soon replaced by sleet unfortunately. It'll be interesting to see how things pan out later tonight especially as Paul mentioned the placement of the second trough is still unsolved amongst the models.
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Just started snowing here in Ipswich with some rather large flakes!! Temp hovering justing around 0C with a dew of -1
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Happy new year all!
Well that was a rather nice surprise to the kick off the cold spell here! Considering the Met Office and the BBC were'nt going for anything apart from the odd shower here we did very well...pretty much snow shower after snow shower last night from 8pm til 2am seems like a mini streamer set up for a while and we just kept getting hit - with some hefty showers too! As a result still a nice covering on all surfaces probably about (3-4cm) and we are back in the game. Still bitterly cold out there with blue skies. Looks like this week is loaded with potential!
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Illness put paid to my new year celebrations so its radar watch for!
Moderate to heavy snow at the minute....nice covering over most surfaces. Looks like a streamer setting itself right over the East Suffolk and Essex coast. -
Don't know if it's just wishful thinking, but there does seem to have been an increase in shower activity just off the East Anglian coast in the past hour or so.
Seems to be a bit of convection kicking some showers off so far today which to be far was always going to be the case with a keen NE breeze. Like Kold weather mentioned its probably best not to worry about snow too much at this stage....lets get the true cold air in place first then sit back and enjoy the ride!
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First sleet shower here today. The showers are certainly increasing in frequency and wintryness now!
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Looking at the recent radar its seems some small amounts of convective showers getting going on the brisk NE breeze and brushing here in Ipswich. Pretty much rain so far but looking at the dutch radar there seems to be some activity out in the north sea: http://www.buienradar.nl/
Not expecting anything of note just hoping to see more of a wintry mix as the day progresses
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Well this looks like the end of the cold spell here in Ipswich with persistant rain and temps above freezing but what a cold spell it was! Nearly 4 days with some pretty extensive snowcover (at it's peek around 7" in places), icicles - (a rare beast if ever there was one!) and some staggering low daytime maximum! Its funny how quickly you become accustomed to the low temps.
Looking forward to the next one but this has been highly memorable and possibly the best for many, many years! :lol:
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Phenomenal late evening event here in Ipswich...another 2" on top of the already deep snowcover (5" from Thurs-fri event). Some huge flakes for an hour did it! The telephone lines are now sagging even more under the weight of the snow! After spotting Icicles today i must say I have'nt seen anything like this since 1991!!
Is that a trough i see developing behind the main front on the radar? -
Light snow with some larger flakes thrown in here in Ipswich now. By the looks of the radar there could be a couple more showers over here in East Suffolk this afternoon
Very interesting to see the La Nina pattern almost being almost overwritten by the persistent northern blocking and a more southerly tracking jet. This winter could well trundle on. Good luck for the rest of the winter guys!
Hoping for some more train-like showers tomorrow.
Do you think thats our lot for some real decent snowfall for our part of the world? I'm not expecting much from the trough today and like you say with showers we could get lucky from the odd shower. The real fly in the oinment (which has been others pleasure) is that low! I wish it would just move along! I can't quite believe the pretty special synoptics we are in, yet have'nt seen a single flake! 
Is that a trough i see developing behind the main front on the radar? 
East Anglia & The Southeast - Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Started snowing in Ipswich about 10 mins ago, reading reports from nearby should be expecting a covering this evening!