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MattS

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    Thames Snow Streamer Event 1/2nd Feb 2009

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattS

    Fantastic analylsis Paul! :) Thanks! IMO this is what meteorology is all about. As you promised, the whole event was a blinding unlucky affair for so many down the east coast of EA and Kent. Will be interesting to see if this sequenece of events has ever been replicated in previous winters? From past experiences, everything seemed to be set up so nicely!

    Thanks again for trawling through the wreckage and helping a rather disillusioned Suffolk dweller to understand that we were, really really really unlucky! :) Until next time! :)

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattS

    Matts i don't agree with your comment about Bristol and the West country being bad for snow, i grew up there for 21 years and we had loads of snow in the winter - almost on a weekly basis some years. Ok, i'm talking about the 70's and 80's, but the Bristol area was always in the snow belt in the scenario that we have just seen. Anything south of the Mendip Hills usually saw rain or sleet, exept in occasional cincumstances as we have just seen I have fond memories of almost getting stuck on Telegraph Hill myself with an identical weather scenario in about 1977!!. When systems hit in from the West into cold air the snow line usually moves up to Gloucester northwards with the Birmingham area getting hit - only high ground around Bristol gets the snow then, i the Severn Estuary has alot to do with this. One of the best places in this area for snow is The Forest Of Dean - i've seen megga falls there, hope this is of interest.

    Thanks for that Mark, Yeah maybe i was thinking of more recent years where the only opportunities of snowfall have come from a short sharp blast from the North or East. For London to be hit quite the way it did was and to get very little in this part of the world is very odd. Theres something very different to this year and almost dare i say it, almost akin to that of the 70's and 80's winters - of which i remember so fondly.

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattS

    Yep

    I know how you feel, I have to travel 20 Miles to the Station (Due West Of Me) before I board my Train and Upminster was buried in the Stuff, Just analysing a few more Charts and Skew T's before I reveal all, you would not believe how Unlucky Coastal Areas were though :):)

    Paul S

    I bet we were Paul! :) I heard a story from a friend of mine about this guy who travelled from Haverhill to Ipswich to work. He started out in blizzard conditions and several inches of snow, at times he was struggling to keep his car on the road. On his arrival just outside Ipswich (in his words) 'it was almost like someone had flicked a switch!' Needless to say my friend and many of his colleagues did'nt believe him!

    Also remember some posting up a hi-res satellite image of the SE corner of the UK showing very clearly a snow free zone E Kent, E Essex, E Suffolk, and great swathes of Norfolk - a very unsual sight. Does anyone know hwre i might be able to see this image (sorry lost the link!)

    Anyway look forward to your findings Paul

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattS

    To the Guys in E Essex, E Suffolk, E Norfolk, N Kent and the Far E of Kent Coasts I will be putting my Findings Up on why we have done so so badly start of Next Week. It is not just down to the Wind Direction and You will probably find it as Fascinating as I have with what I have found out, at least 3 Factors went against us which I will show how it played out.

    Paul S

    Hi Paul

    Very much look forward to it. :) I must say it almost seems like that if anything could of gone wrong for us it, it invariable did! Mild sectors, longer sea tracks modifying air, changes in wind directions at the wrong time and the way the systems approached the UK.

    I don't like moaning about not getting snow myself especially as many many others, who don't live in the usual favourable locations (like Bristol and the west country) got loads of it! As i said before it's seems like theres been so many near misses thats bugging me. Seriously if i was to travel about 20 miles directly west of my location on monday I would of found a serious amount of snow! I can't remember the last winter when we had so many good chances only to continually scuppered!

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Several flakes of snow last night so I've been spoilt but its freezing, minus 1 at mo

    Latest BBC forecast indicating Monday morning might be interesting. Inevitably I'll get rain, sleet at best but at least we are getting opportunities time after time

    Yeah it's getting a bit silly in this part of the world now. (a paltry inch last sunday into monday which was duly washed away within 24hrs) Event after event has somehow avoided east suffolk and i'm afraid it's got all the tell tale signs of another cold rain event here. I'm still holding out for a true NE, that seems to be the only way we can get a decent snowfall over here. Even last sunday's ENE seemed to shunt everything too far south. Sorry about the rant but i have never experienced anything quite like this in terms of near misses! :o :o

    Would be interesting to hear others thoughts on whats going to happen sunday into monday?

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Short range rain tracking every 15 minutes is now included on the Glastonbury automated forecast:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;sess=#forecast

    The written forecast will be updated shortly, with the final update on Tuesday evening. Julian will also be continuing to update his blog every night until the start of Glasto as well :)

    Thanks Paul, thats superb! Although i kind of hoped we were'nt going to need it! :) I must say your coverage over here on Netweather has been second to none and is very much appreciated. Much better than over on TWO!!! :)

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Would someone be able to point in me in the direction of what the tool for handling rainfall projections at the 24-48 hours range to assist with the glastonbury forecasts . Obviously i'm aware of the GFS hi-resolution section but i seem to remember another mesoscale rainfall forecasting tool from somewhere? Any help would be greatly appreciated! :)

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattS

    Well looks like the GFS has been pretty spot on since earlier in the week picking the trend and the placement of that low. It's forecast to be pretty unsettled conditions throughout the festival period but perhaps drying up towards the end. Probably won't feel too bad in the sunny spells between the showers tho. Looks like agreement between the ECM and METO now too....I'm off to buy some additional waterproofs! :rolleyes:

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Cheers, West. You have no idea (or quite a lot of idea) how much I yearn for you to be right .... all today's updated info has been dreadful ...

    :)

    Oh yes, I know it didn't dry up til Sunday last tme, but by Sunday lunchtime, the site ws good :(

    You coming this time?

    Don't lose heart just yet William...I'm reserving judgement until we get towards the end of the weekend. This weeks unsettled weather's is causing all sorts of problems with the model output and timings as ever will be crucial. Keep believing in the ridge! :)

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattS

    Au contraire ... this is on a knife-edge between some pretty stormy convection and some very hot settled weather. Although I'm often more optmistic about Glasto weather than normal, I think you may be in for a belter weather-wise. But it's still too early to say.

    Yeah, but i did throw in the usual disclaimer about GFS. :) I've been trying to get what positives i can from the somewhat eratic output during the past week or so. There has been some good runs scattered in there with some decent ridges being thrown over the SW and i would agree that things are finely poised. My feelings are it's all about what happens over the next few days with the advancing slow moving LP's.

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like the weather's going to be absolutely stinking for next week if the latest GFS is to be believed. (which at this range probably should'nt!) Seems some backing from the ECM now too, throwing in a north easterly flow for good measure. :) My only hope is things get pushed eastwards just like they always do in winter! :)

    Glastonbury Festival 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for the forecast Paul! At the moment i'd take sunshine and showers, rather than a mudpath!

    Latest GFS imparticular still persisiting with a more unsettled trend as we move into mid month and just prior to the Glasto period. After this weeks warmth we could get stuck in a more zonal pattern for a couple of weeks - although some hints of a rise in pressure into FI on the ensembles...fingers crossed. Either way it will be :drinks:

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