Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water
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Posts posted by Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water
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Friday looking a bit nasty, but don't think it will be a washout. Been pretty dry for a while now so fingers are crossed for the best.
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The ECM op run goes for a sub 964mb low at 144hrs to west of Western Isles. The ECM mean goes for instead a flabby 995 one instead.Says to me that not many of the ensembles support that deep low, the mean would be deeper and low more round if they did.Or is there a flaw to my logic?
Sort of. An ensemble mean will (almost) never be as extreme in that sort of situation, as it is the mean of all solutions on offer, so less amplified runs will reduce its potency. It is best used for trends rather than assessing tracks of specific systems, as it is not actually a specific model run, just an average of many. So a dramatically weaker low from the ensemble mean should, essentially, mean that there isn't uniform support for the op run. However, it is probably more useful to look at the individual members themselves.
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I think the focus should be more on potential frontal snow events rather than a direct easterly blast myself. Could be wrong, certainly hope i'm wrong. I don't disagree with Steve re one run, one model. However it's not only the GFS, it's the ECM at 96 hrs and the orientation of the LP that we hope will be a trigger by 120 as on the UKMO that's the crucial phase here.
But I don't think anything should be ignored. The 6z GFS is comparatively poor (although given the winter so far...!) as is the ECM. But they are only "poor" against the expectations being raised on two models post 96 hrs that ordinarily wouldn't get a look in if the roles were reversed here and it was the GFS/ECM most bullish.
It will end up middle ground as usual - let's just hope we end up on the right side.
Totally agree with this, at least for the next week or so. Considering the winter we've had so far, there is no way anyone should be writing off a more progressive, Atlantic-influenced solution, so can't rule out the GFS yet. However, there are certainly some indications that a much colder period is imminent, and a middle ground solution could end up with a run of undercutting lows which could provide some snow even without a truly cold easterly. Interesting times ahead!
Also, interesting to finally discover the meaning of "FI". Have been lurking for years and always assumed this was "forecast interval", i.e. the period until which the forecast had a fair degree of certainty to it.
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westward shift is probably marginally better for keeping the cold in the long run, but frustrating in terms of potential for immediate snow... and after Monday being taken away 48 hours before fruition, to have Friday follow the same fate would certainly a shame!
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in a situation like this, with fairly cold uppers and in many places a non-marginal situation, 1mm=.8cm is probably roughly right.
In more marginal situations, it can be more like 1mm=.5cm. All depends on the dendritic growth... Ratios of 1mm=1cm will need 850mb temps of <-8 in most cases. Colder than that and you can see ratios as high as 1mm=2cm.
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Looking at the 00z and 06z GFS, we could do really quite well on Wednesday...
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Indeed it does look promising, however will be marginal. hopefully we can have one more set of snow before the warm air wins out (for now)
think this forum might get busier on tuesday/wednesday depending how far east this low goes.
What's that website?
Yes, does look very marginal, although based purely on 00z Reading (my location) would just about stay all snow (and between 8-12 cm of it...)
This is as close as it gets... perhaps a tiny bit sleety but should really be alright...
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Also regarding the 0z, parts of the South could do quite well with tuesday/wednesday, so long as we can remain all snow...
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As a meteorology student I'm sure you can all imagine how gutting it is that I chose this week to be on holiday (ahh, poor me ha ha), with my flight due back tonight... can anyone tell me what sort of snow depths there are right now in Reading, and also what the chances of actually driving from Gatwick to Reading are in any sensible time?
Thanks, and I hope to return the favour with a future event, just don't really have the time to get all the info myself right now as I can't!
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I am already resigned to Reading contriving to miss this one.
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Could anyone please respond (sixth time i have asked) will we be getting more of this type of thing on Friday and over the weekend?
Possibly, but too soon to know for sure now. Almost certainly not to the same magnitude, at least for Grtr London and Surrey.
Depressed in Reading, within 10 miles or so of a pasting to N, S, and E but think we're pretty much done with 6 cm.
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had a band of very heavy snow poised to slam us just now, then at the next radar interval, it's reshaped itself to avoid Reading. Unbelievable. EVERYWHERE north, south, and east of us are getting pasted and we've had maybe 2".
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hmmm this low just keeps moving north... if it doesnt start to pick up the easterly and move westwards soon lots are going to miss out and further snow! Roger or Steve perhaps you could provide thoughts?
The precip shield is definitely backing westwards.
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What do you rate my chances of seeing some of the snow in that mass over france?? Am hoping its good for some reason even though i dont normally like snow!!
Almost certain
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Hi all, you can see the deeper cloud (frontal snow?)moving up from france on this meteosat link http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/meteo...playmode=Endlos
Not sure if it will give much here but snow is falling steadily as I type.
cheers for the link...
you can see the trough here starting to tilt, which should bring the frontal snow westward.
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Will the front moving up from france this afternoon be mainly snow or rain? where do you think the cut off line will be with regards to the warm sector?
You should be all snow in Guildford.
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heads up for those asking if they're too far west... this SHOULD pivot westwards, although it should be heaviest in the east, but many in the east will struggle to remain all snow.
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Been looking at the radar might get something around 1.30 am, dont know how much though. But you are right Reading is the worse place to ask for snow.
Don't want to jinx it, but we might just get under that very heavy band that's north of London right now... probably a bit before 3. Thinking if we do we might be in business for several hours...
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Reading is the most frustrating place in the world right now. 2 or 3 miles from being in steady snow but unless the flow backs more SE-rly, we'll never settle into it. Can see Wokingham and Bracknell getting steady snow all night and us getting a dusting. Still will get a fair bit in the afternoon tomorrow in fairness...
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best snow of the night so far in Reading. Quite light still but more than a few flakes. Think it will be stop and start for a while though as there appears to be a dry slot coming towards us after this band, but could be getting going properly around 3. Think I'll have a nap now and wake up around 6 to see where we are...
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Well lets hope so. :lol: :lol:
Looks like it could just be a snow event now?
I doubt people like us will remain all snow, but new fax chart is certainly better for us than the GFS.
South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
My run is becoming less and less likely...