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Discombobulation Man

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Posts posted by Discombobulation Man

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not happening at this moment in time i'm afraid. Looks like average weather is upon us and could last for some time. Unless the models flip back to a cold easterly again. Which is possible. The Siberian/Scandi HP is still a beast, but for the moment it is going to have little influence on us. Well, that's what the models hint at anyway...

    Shame, this time yesterday it was so much different for the outlook! I say we've still got a small chance going by the GFS 6z, at T156 the Siberian High throws out a ridge and makes a bid for the UK but gets booted out by the massive circulation coming out of the states, pushing East. Between now and then any small detail can change and tip the odds back in our mans favour - it's just a shame to see little ensemble support for it.

    However, Tomaz 'dont wanna panic you' Shafernaker says this:

    (quote from 'ANYWEATHER' in the gen mod discussion 20 mins ago)

    Tomaz S on the Radio 4 said that a return to colder conditions next week and he sounded pretty resolute in his manner, thats after a very mixed weekend ...Oh well!

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    After going to bed on a high from the GFS 18z and expecting the ECM to be onboard again by morning, I wake up to find an utter train wreck. All the models have backed off an Easterly now, apart from the GFS which brings in a very tame and short affair. The ensembles across the GFS and ECM are worryingly poor as well if you want cold and snow - precious little support for the siberian block to hold off the atlantic.

    Does anyone want to buy a crate of champagne by any chance? :cray:

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    We then ended the afternoon with an hour of the fluffiest snow I have seen for years - fantastic.

    Whatever winter throws at us now I have had my fix of the white stuff!

    Yeah it's been a good one, destroyed the myths if there were any left, that we cant get good settling snow in London, did better than quite a few actually.

    Tonights PPN has been progged by the Invent radar to come across most of us by 6am with some quite potent bursts south of London - I just dont get why it's so guaranteed to be rain or sleet - uppers no good?

    Anyway, champagnes out with the GFS 18z at 168, hows about a nice little streamer to kick off the next cold blast:

    h850t850eu.png

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

    Ouch. ECM not playing ball this evening for the easterly reload.

    Yeah very disappointing because it was looking like champagne time again, need to see the GFS stick to its guns tonight and see what the ECM ensembles say but IMO until the ECM starts trending for the Easterly then there will be no Easterly.

    TBH I think all things considered we're still odds on to get an Easterly, the blocks feels like a friend to me, but nevertheless if Pete Tong shows up I've still got a healthy stock of tissues left over from radar watching. . .

    P.S. TEITS is still confident of the Easterly. . .

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Certaintly wasn't the met office. Is chaos due to ensue in London I wonder? That would be funny. Good work Mr Atlantic. Anyone notice how the beeb are rely playing this down? We have two inches of snow already in London and it's still snowing! Wake up!!

    lol yeah, it's nuts because this is our biggest helping of snow since last wednesday (probably will beat that) and this time we have no grit - yet barely makes the news, you'd think it was a normal a day in London.

    I reckon all the relevant agencies are told to play it down for London now to lessen panic and keep all the lemmings going to work.

    Turned to heavy fine snow gtrains here, hope it's not the end.

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes that's sick, least I got a cm or two but can't believe the hours I've put in on the forums and radar for that pawltry amount! and still i'm here...

    TBH there are people that ended a lot worse than me, we still have snow lying in our street here, but we got nearly all that we have from 1 small helping last wednesday.

    BTW the GFS 18z is really struggling to get the band over to us even by midday tomorrow!!

    Very sick game :yahoo: :wacko:

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

    hmmm :closedeyes: might get here in time for the rush hour then...........on friday........as rain <_<

    ROFL, really wouldn't surprise me, there are some sick, sadistic people controlling our weather; I mean I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad, they have me spend a week following snizzle around on a radar, setup streamers left, right and centre of me (yeah no kidding) and now that they've decided to pull the curtains across on their twisted little drama, I have to do the same thing I did when this sorry mess started - watch all the exciting stuff stall to the west of me again. .

    If that's not sick then what is?

    EDIT: liking the latest NAE! - or is this another sick twist?

    EDIT 2 : do what, I didn't type some of that stuff?? lol ?

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    temp 1.5 dew -1.2 - was -1.8 at around 6.30. guess it shouldn't rise much during the night, but it always worries me :D

    Yup think we should be ok, by the time the band comes in I'm hoping even the centre of London gets to 0c.

    . . . and it looks like we'll need the freezing temps because it really is looking like a snizzle fest.

    Fingers crossed for pep ups appearing from nowhere :D:mellow:

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I thought it was pivoting and our snow would come from fance ie coming up from the south from France instead of from the west. Probably completely wrong but sure someone will soon tell me if I am ( hope I'm not lol )

    Yeah that's what I originally thought but it now looks like the area around and just to the south of portsmouth has got our name on it. . looks like the weakest part of the band, wouldn't you know :whistling:

    Concerned that not even a yellow warning out for London on the MetO though, what the hell do you have to do to get more than snizzle in this place?

    Any of the pros see any chance of a pep up or at the least just for the band to hold together better as it comes over?

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    What charts are you looking at? The highest temp in Kent looks to be about 2-3ºc at midnight on the charts I am looking at???

    The temp at 3am on the 12z shows most of London at or below freezing, just in time for the ppn to (possibly) arrive.

    But I am still hoping that we may get something out of this in West London, it has been sadly lacking recently, while everyone else has got many inches of snow, I have had no more than 3cm throughout this!

    (I assume you got a bit more in Kensal Green :aggressive: it is that tiny bit chillier up there, even though it is only a mile away.)

    I was being a wally and looking at the temps for tomorrow night - I had it in my head it was wednesday today.

    Had max between 4-5cms here but I took a trip to St Johns Wood which is zone 2 and they had a bit more than me! They did better than me in feb 09 as well.

    Where in WC London are you?

    I don't think the main band is going to get to the Isle of Wight by 7pm at this rate! it's Eastern edge is getting chewed up as it tries to push NE.

    Not another night of tears and tissues! :good:

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Here's the Meto Invent PPN radar prediction for 3pm and the actual PPN at 3pm for comparison; It's broadly the same. . . however everythings a bit further East and certainly the Easterly extent of the PPN on the NW coast of France has made it about 50 miles further East than the MetO expected - at that time.

    Could mean nothing, or could mean everything.

    Predicted:

    gallery_4924_689_15137.jpg

    Actual:

    gallery_4924_689_30810.jpg

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yup, as has been said it's quite clear from the way he stands that Mr Betts has a hard-on for mild and damp.

    BTW the MetO invent radar is showing a 32mm ppn rate on the NW France coast, can you imagine getting a foot of snow in an hour! If you were in Kent no doubt a streamer would set up and you'd get a day of it, you'd have to sleep on your roof lol :D

    The faster the band comes towards us the better it will be, if it takes longer to get here than progged then it could be a case of the 'walking wounded' in our skys and nothing more than snizzle.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Could be a case of Look but dont touch for the billionth time this cold spell for me. Most of the heavy stuff now progged to the West of London with our east side of the band decaying over the channel into a pile of steaming hot pish before it wobbles over and dumps 10 billion flecks of snizzle over me.

    Dont worry I'm not moaning :closedeyes:

    There is still a chance of a dumping if the channel can be our friend tonight and hold that ppn together before smashing us, the ppn is already a lot stronger than the MetO invent radar was predicting so you never know :lol:

    I'm going for the dream scenario; PPN holds together in the channel and powers up the Eastern side of the band as it swings round - before getting well and truly stuck over the SE for a day dumping 45cm on London and the SE.

    Back of the net if it happens. . . but dont get your hopes up too much :D

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