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Discombobulation Man

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Posts posted by Discombobulation Man

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

    Quickie for the pro's here.

    PPN looks to arrive around midnight Tues/Weds according to GFS (Which we know is progressive)

    But with uppers around -3/-4, air temps of 0-2c and dp's around -1 (generally) is this favourable for snow?

    I'm thinking hell yeah and game on IF the GFS materialises (Unlikely)

    :D

    Yeah it should be in this setup because we'll still be drawing a continental feed. . . unless it all goes tits up.

    Very interestingly the 6z this morning stalled the precipitation over London and SE for an extra few hours but it was a massive outlier - but now the 12z has sort of followed the trend by bringing us over here more into play, will be definitely game on if we can carry on trending towards the 06z outlier this morning and then maybe add a little bit more of an Easterly shunt to the precip band on top of that :p

    It's all about the shortwave that develops up the channel as the Low comes into the SW approaches, need to see how it gets progged if it shows up on future runs. . .

    EDIT - just seen the NAE chart you posted - defo game on now

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I seem to be in the middle of two bands of snow. One passing from Kent into SE London moving WNW along the Thames, and one passing into West Essex. Just my luck.

    No how you're feeling mate, I've been chasing pish around on a radar screen for the last week watching streams set up everywhere but here, finally the winds turned favourable up the Thames for a couple of seconds this evening but now I'm back to watching Kent getting the big dollops and I'm scanning the streamer for flecks that my come way.

    What a desperate exisitence, can we not get a direct Easterly for more than a minute? :whistling:

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Suspect this was a con to let people buy more to boost the economy :)

    However check the Model thread and we have a possible re load in 7 days :yahoo:

    Raining here in East London :)

    We've had light snow here for the last 30 mins, not settling though - the streamer of sorts is certainly in affect, raintoday shows it up well if you put in your postcode so it zooms in.

    I think we should all look at possible re-load scenarios and where our next dollop is going to come from because we aint going to get anything from this setup anytime soon.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Things are being funnelled up the Estuary towards London better in the last hour or so, but nothing is firing over Essex and Eastwards at the moment so still nothing to get excited about.

    Anyone got any thoughts as to whether there's likely to be enough instability around our part of the north sea to get anything going?

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

    Heavy snow showers crossing north kent it seems to be the order for the day..

    Although NAE and GFS both went for 0 amount of precip on the weatheronline charts, yet show snow as weather type. Pretty confusing

    Was that using todays NAE charts?? has anyone seen todays NAE charts?

    Definitely on fleck alert here, bits floating in the wind. . . should start getting rid of this useless NNE ( :nea: ) up the Estuary any time now.

    Not hopeful of much convection though with nothing exciting showing on any of the models and nothing from the MetO.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The Shafernaker Snizzard is here! We can be proud that us lot on the forum spotted last nights disaster long before any of the agencies new what was going on :(

    The milder air mass is mixing out now and the -5c upper air should start to kick in and peg those temps down. My tiny straw that I've been clutching all week for this location is still there for tonight!

    We're still in a damn NNE wind at this end of the Estuary :( We've had 5 days of misery watching all the good stuff get steered to our SE but that wind will swing round to direct Easterly by tonight. Our window opens around 3pm today until midnight, possibly into monday.

    The reason I say from 3pm to midnight is because that's when the wind strength up the Estuary is going to peak, after midnight it dies a death and falls slack, so much less chance of anything decent getting pushed into London, also the upper temps are still favourable at that time. Unfortunately GFS progs weak convection for the Estuary to coincide with the winds becoming favourable which isn't great but nevertheless, the tiny straw I've been clutching all week is still there!

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Something brewing in the Channel at the moment, looks interesting, seems to be building nicely

    Yep and heading into CS/SW to dump on them, looks like we're just going to get transcient chaff coming out of Kent here in London. You might get the odd heavy burst down there and as ever Kent will probably do well.

    However the temps look like turd to me so that might put a spanner in the works, even if the precip gets going.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Anyone else think our area of Snow moving up from the South East is over 100 Miles West :(:( Run the radar and look South of Portsmouth, definately moving North West, i think the Met Office Warnings need to be put on the other side of the Country for Hampshire, Dorset, Devon etc

    Lol what a Cock Up!

    Paul S

    lol yup, and my god was anyone looking at that MetO Invent tool today? has been doing very well at picking out the main convection areas but utter disaster today.

    YTS boys left in charge at the MetO today while people claim back there overtime from the last 6 weeks.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

    Is it coming from the Germans? Russia? Mars?

    Nope it's coming from the Channel just on our doorstep(?)

    Talk about stealth, what the heck?

    Well I assume it's coming from there, looks like it's starting to fire. . . or else where the hell is it coming from, got to be thinking it's going to happen with all the agencies still going for this.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    For where?! I have come to the conclusion that if there is any doubt whatsoever for London, ie peter Cockcroft says something like "to the south and east of London" then London will get little or no accumulating snow. Wednesday afternoon was our best dump, and in all fairness peter Cockcroft forecast it. Unless the national forecasters specifically mention London, regardless of their vague graphics, we will not get anything other than flurries.

    Well said, it really is very very difficult to find out the weather forecast here in the main part of London, you never know if you're included or not, it's always the snow will hit "the london area" or "south london" when they mean surrey etc

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm still amazed at the variation in snow amounts between here and outer London. Here we have 3 inches, in Barnet theres 5, and in Watford (ok, not technically London but close) theres 6!!

    Yeah me too, the bulk of Londons lying snow came from wednesdays events, got lucky because the cell that delivered for us looked like dying out but just managed to pep up a bit when it came over Central London and that single cell is the main reason why the inner zones are holding their own when it comes to snow depths.

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    WHEN ARE THE THESE WINDS GOING TO TURN EASTERLY , IM SORRY BUT WATCHING THOSE SHOWERS HITTING KENT FOR 24 HOURS is slightly annoying.

    PMSL, weren't you the one telling me to stop complaining when I mentioned exactly the same thing earlier?!

    I'v been waiting for this sniveling little wind to change at this end of the Estuary for 4 days now :(

    But fear not! for indeed the steering winds are going to change as we go into Monday, into an Easterly then a South Easterly :)

    May not be much juice in any convection by then but at least we will be more favoured for a dollop if it's around. Could be a constant stream of light/mod snow into London on Monday/Tues - you never know :)

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I agree. And I am also doubtful about tonight. Looking like a Kent event yet again. I hope to be pleasantly surprised in the morning. But I think I will be stuck with my 1-2 inches of old gear (which I accept is more than our brethren in central and south London have)

    The central zones have actually done quite well here, I went snow spotting into zone 2 and into Westminster yesterday and places like St Johns wood had 6cms which is a cm more than here.

    The radar hasn't been too kind to London but when it has the central and southern zones haven't done too bad.

    Most of the capital bar the main business districs have at least some lying snow.

    Very pleased about the upgrades but does anyone know what's going to happens to the wind direction with the new upgrades? specifically up the Estuary and into London??

    Please not another North Easterly :D

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Can someone on here spare a thought for us snow starved londoners? Nobody looks after us and let's us know what we are likely to see. We have now had four very near misses with snow and one decent fall that was restricted to us in the northern and western suburbs. Yes we know Kent gets snow, but this is not going to be a classic cold spell unless central London bags 7cm plus at some point. I'm starting to lose faith, all the snow is in the same old places. Any advice or forecasts for us londoners?

    I said it earlier but someone said I was just complaining and that it was just a theory, in fact i've said it a zillion times this week:

    All the good stuff will go to the south and east of London because the steering winds are NNE/NE and have been throughout the last few days generally - hence the disaster for London.

    Winds turn more direct Eaterly for Monday - just in time for some light sleet.

    We should get couple more cm's of transient pish off this mess that's coming from the continent though so at least we get something.

    For our neck of the woods I'm praying for an unexpected surprise to appear.

    BTW I think we have now been within 20 miles from big snow attacks in all directions and missed out now.

    Fingers crossed for you and me that something freakish happens soon :D

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