Troubleatmill

But unfortuntely Posh12 that is exactly whats happend, the models were showing a great chance for sustained cold at times over the last few weeks, but it has failed and now we are looking at a rather zonal outlook in the reliable time frame, i.e spells of Rain some heavy, breezy and mild to average temps, long term is open to anything, this is where we look to the Likes of GP for a insight into the drivers of our weather and what they are doing 'currently' that would, could or should effect us 'longer' term

i actually believe the azores high is the last player to come to the table and isnt our enemy, everything else has go to wrong before this, by its very name doesnt want to be here, of course he is more than welcome to holiday here summer

hahaha! its a joke isnt it, like being on a boat swaying in the ocean baying from side to side! look east, no look west! east come on over here!! no ? sod off then, west come over here will you! For goodness sake one of you come this way!!!!!

Very impressive Mark, thanks for that

Yep agree, said just the same thing before you, given up on anything for xmas. finding closure lol

Do you not think the ensembles show some promise TIETS? a different tease?

Think unfortunately that snow from the midlands north wards would only be applicable to higher ground over 250m-300m and rising even though that chart says differently, certainly for for N England. North east Scotland would be different with cold more embedded beforehand, just my take on it anyway. Still think the ensembles show promise for northern blocking once the Carrot HP to our east has had enough teasing us and allows this trough were on the wrong side of to move east past the meridian, although this obviously leaves the door open for zonality to take a hold too, think its a risk we have to look for now.

slightly more optimistic this morning, the operational ooz gfs was a shocker but the ensembles looking like they may be onto something after xmas, cant copy & paste on this thing, not a majority by any means but enough to grab interest t

Think its because they are prety clever people, impossible to be sure i agree, and doubt they are 100%, but if the met say we are going to locked into this for a fortnight (its not that long in pattern terms) its prety much a given i reckon

CFS is a belter for a cold easterly to cheer everyone up, way off out in la la but best i could find lol! http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&run=10

hasnt this been the problem of the last two weeks though? hp to the east but not ridging to us so any lps will happily sit there eroding away over us or just to our west? really preffered to see the back of this hp cell, its a lovely looking carrot but think we needvto find a new freshly dug up one or there is the danger of being stuck here for some time?

06z ensembles? again yuck, like BFTP says im sure sure something is going to go boom! this winter, there are so many peices of the Jigsaw in the right place for nothing to come off, looking west east and north, just not quite yet it would appear.

I think at the end of the run (total fiction i know) we are looking at what could happen if the block to the east does release its grip on Russia and Scandi, if it doesnt retrogress we really need to see the back of it and allow lows to get through or we could stay like this for a long long time, the Atlantic will always send lows, maybe this is the way forward?

Think we need this little ridge of the azores high to flatten out to allow the low pressure to head in a more easterly south easterly direction, dont think we want to see any link up as it would only progress into a euro high

ECM 15 day ensembles toying with the idea of an easterly around the xmas period, very much the few going for it but better than none!!

Know what you are saying , i like this cold and i know when we get a 'warm' high over us we can can still get cold surface temps too. Your second sentence was what i was alluding to, people say 47 or 63 for a reason. Prob just as fed up on here as most that we looked to be heading into a sustained deep cold period. Who knows what the flap of a butterfly in the amazon can do. Liam has just summed it up in a nutshell

Think it maybe that we are by default a 'mild' island and its so hard to get cold (or lasting cold) to our shores

Just look on Meteociel Shunter you can see each run on there before for the graphs http://www.meteociel...gefs_cartes.php

Quickly scanning through through the 06z ensembles there is not much to bring us festive cheer, think it could be one of those times to give the models a break for a few days rather than watching each one come through & hoping that its all been a bad mistake. Things always look better after a couple of days break...hopefully :s !

Indeed, yuck about sums it up, as we know things can develop out of seemingly nothing, just as the cold looked locked in and hasnt so can the mild, but the ensembles look like a horror show of mild & wet, with the occasional returning polar maritime air to make the rain colder, s frustrating where the PV is so weak prety much all the way through the run to our North...up the anchor and let us drift a 1000 miles further North

Dont think its models Adam, its the weather and because we live in that temperate zone between cold and warm we are always going to be like this, its just part of living here and what makes us interested and 'wanting' extremes. Prob why ive not come across a weather forum in Egypt :s. i often think trying to get cold and snowy conditions in the country is like putting a rubber duck in a hot bath (atlantic) and trying to freeze it from the side...hard but not impossible

Yep blocked as can be, apart from one little gap for the lows to track through, slap bang through the middle of the uk.....talk about frustration like you say, think i would rather see a raging deep PV anchored over Greenland and start a whole new fresh as this set up isnt looking like changing and we have been so incredibly unlucky for a number of weeks now, which is worse than having no chance! at least the ensembles hold a degree of hope, personally i think its time the block to east cleared off and we got some mobility back.

Indeed, we are are always on the lookout for another 2010, who knows we may yet as the the NH is definately not in default zonal. Its simply a case of unfortunatly things havnt gone as we had hoped for snow and deep cold, but it all makes model watching interesting as we a learn so much more when we are in these set ups, as they dont happen every year.

Think the 06z ensembles for Aberdeen sum up what the models are showing. A real split on how far Northward an attack from the Southwest/west will get, dont think ive seen such a definitive parting before in FI

Although still still great charts showing on the 06z, im beginning to think we need to see this HP retrogress NW and drag some cold air down from the North or NNE, although 850's are around the -6 ish and certainly not warm, and feeling bitter in the wind,i dont think there enough of a cold pool in europe for us to tap into anything spectacular especially with there being no preesure fall around Italy/Greece , the feed of siberian air isnt there from the east ATM