etched Chaos

Actually they can and will continue to happen, the weather is not some stable thing that is easy to predict. No matter how much money you throw at it, the weather will still cause problems in the future, to think otherwise is to underestimate the complexity of the weather and the chaos it throws up. Really? Seems to me from all signs from Ian F that they tend to ignore the GFS, so why would they be all confused? They believe it'll be getting colder, every model they place importance in agrees with that.

Fixed it for you.

Which was right about the time the GFS flipped. The GFS is not the best model so can we stop treating it like some holy grail of weather models. All models are wrong but the trend is for cold, the one lone dissenting voice is the GFS, which isn't even the best model for verification at this moment.

The GFS is also the one model with a distinct bias to a dominant Atlantic, so really it's consistency means nothing until it gets support from another model.

Funny, there's been just as much consistency from every other model, so the GFS' consistency isn't exactly unique right now. So what do you place more weight in, the GFS, or every other model?

The GFS is the one dissenting voice right now and you want every other model to fall in line with it, just to alleviate confusion? How about some positivity, that the GFS is wrong and it falls in line with everybody else before the weekend.

I have to ask why the GFS' consistency is used as reason for the cold not holding? Every other model have been just as consistent as the GFS and all of them agree on sustained cold, so why are posters focusing just on the consistency from the GFS? If the UKMO think so little of the GFS that they use the EC over it then surely it's consistency is only worrisome when another model falls in line with it. Sure it spots trends but then with 4 runs a day it has twice the chance to spot trends and not to forget that other models spot trends too. It just seems that there's a underlying want for the cold spell to never materialise so people can have something else to moan about this winter.

-2c!? It's a balmy 3.2c here .

The Day after Tomorrow is on E4... Spooky.

Must be the Snow-shield, is affecting the forum too.

Was 9.9c at midnight, mild must really annoys me.

New GFS has dropped my snow chance from 68% to 39% .

We all had our hearts broken in December, so we're holding out until we know there's actual cold coming.

It's just common sense, with two months left, writing off winter now is a ridiculous notion.

Been too wet today for frost, so probably some snow. You're further North than I am, so the spots of snow have been hitting you more often.

It was a shortlived affair, hardly lasted a few minutes.

I've my fingers crossed that the beasterly comes to fruition. But if I end up in the snowless corridor again, I may explode.

Now 1.3c, it's now getting warmer .

0.9c here, have the feeling i'll be the last to see sub-zero temps.

Ah, but that's if you exclude emotion from the process. Alas, I've never been very good at staying unemotional when it comes to cold weather. It's why I'm glad GP hasn't erred from positive comments.

True, only for us Coastal fools it's going to be warmer than everywhere else. It's why I'm really hoping for a beast from the East and some good old-fashioned North Sea convection.

Unlike bears, I hibernate until winter .

I'm jonesing for the white stuff, so send it my way if it comes by you .

A scalding 3.9c here .

It had updated after i posted.