Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?

dallas

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,082

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by dallas

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Nick F said:

    Blimey, that limpet low over Ireland/western UK from Tuesday-Friday takes an age to finally clear SE, this is all that's holding back the floodgates to prevent deep cold flooding out of NE Europe towards us.

    Trouble is, the loitering low close to the west through next week becomes removed from the jet stream which sinks away south into France and Germany, so there is little impetus for it to move. But the models do struggle with low movements when they are away form the jet and upper flow is weak.

    jet_weds12z.thumb.png.80a15e52efbe6583378359ac7d8fafb5.png

    Anyway, the NEly arrives in the end next weekend on 06z GFS, but it's the north that benefits from deep cold, hopefully corrections south for deep cold to benefit us all, IF this is the route we will take of course. Need all models on board to get the Ely or NEly going in the first place. This will all depend on how the low to the west moves and also how blocking develops to our north. Ideally we need arctic high and ridge from Atlantic flow amplification combining. But models always struggle with northern blocking, so more twists and turns to come.

    Nick, do we need this low to dissappear or move S/E?

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Push of colder air from the Continent Mick later this afternoon establishes overnight so when the system arrives tomorrow morning winds are southerly ahead of it meaning no warming of the air from the Sea (only inland about 10 miles from the South Coast) will be wrong side of marginal and hence you only really need -4c to -6c uppers

    A southerly more favourable than an easterly madness eh and what makes us love the weather so much

    Nice shout from last week Paul, you called it

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Looking at the radar not expecting much this evening so will do a round up.

    Snow 0/10

    Frost 4/10

    Ice Days 8/10

    Longevity 8/10

    Giving an average of 5 out of 10 for this Chilly Period - Lets hope the next spell can get a much better rating than this end of Jan as I still fell we will get a better attack from the NE from the 26th Onwards.

    Is the 26th onwards regarding positive response from a SSW?

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by dallas

    6 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Just had a read through the stratosphere thread, seems some of the hype about the SSW has gone down a notch now. 

    The SSW is happening, but whether it actually does anything for us at the surface doesn't seem to sound so promising now.

    One day there will be some good news surely.....

    Its at this point I close my eyes, put my hands over my ears and shout la la la la

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
×
×
  • Create New...