Worth having a look at the ECM12z completely different to the 00z. Not worth look past 96hrs. All options on the table after that! No model has a handle on this yet!!
I think most outcomes are still on the table at 96hrs. Not worth getting hung up on anything after that. Today is proof that no model has a handle on this yet. Lesson to be learned.
Are we not just seeing in the last few days the 2 extreames of this pattern. Surely a middle ground scenario is most likely. Also as Steve said earlier, while the UKMO is playing ball at a short timeframe. There’s all to play for still. Enjoy!!