Yeti

Well I for one completely agree with you Steve - and remember like you say, the CETs don't really prove that much anyway. The fact is that when we talk of the "even larger teapot" we are looking for those -10 to -20 uppers (-15 hasn't been seen for a LONG time) sustained over a long period of time in an UNSETTLED, NON-INVERSION type spell. That's what leads to severe cold spells, not the inversion at the beginning of January, no matter what wonders it did for the CET. IF we eventually see at least 3 days of -10 uppers, preferably with -15 at times, and a strong block around Svalbard, then I will reconsider the above. But this winter, we have only got half way there - the southerly jet WITHOUT the blocking to the N (even the beginning of Feb wasn't really a classic "easterly draw" block with a S'ly veering E'ly and by fortune a cold pool wrapped up in it). Let's hope, though, that the other half will be completed in the near future. Just to add, another challenge of the even larger teapot is to get the juicy synoptics in January, and not at the beginning of March and end of Feb.

Just posted this in the climate thread but I think it's relevant here. We often complain about our winters warming (indeed, the whole climate) in the UK, and perhaps even more often about the "cold going south". Well look at this data for Spain compared to other countries, and how much of an increase there has/hasn't been across the two data sets (61-90 and 71-00). Brussels 2.5, 3,1 (January); 9.7, 10.2 (annual) Burgos 2.6, 2.7 (January); 9.9, 10.1 (annual) Ávila 3.2, 2.8 (January); 10.4, 10.4 (annual) León 3.1, 3.1 (January); 10.8, 10.9 (annual) Aachen 2.4, 3.0 (January); 9.7, 10.1 (annual) Freiburg 1.8, 2.4 (January); 10.8, 11.1 (annual) Karlsruhe 1.2, 1.9 (January); 10.3, 10.7 (annual) Notice Ávila (1130m) has actually fallen in January! Burgos (856m) has increased by 0.1-0.2, and León barely noticeably. Here is some other data, to compare with our cities: (January 61-90, 71-00, Annual 61-90, 71-00) London 4.6, 5.2, 10.7, 11.0 Oxford 4.1, 4.6, 10.1, 10.4 Manchester 3.8, 4.2, 9.5, 9.8 Washington 0.9, 1.7, 13.7, 14.2 Vienna-Hohe Warte (T January) - 1931-1960: -1,4 ºC - 1961-1990: -0,6 ºC - 1971-2000: 0,1 ºC Madrid- Navacerrada (T January y t annual) (NOT Madrid itself, at 1800m!) -1931-1960: -1,1 6,7 -1961-1990: -0,6 6,1 -1971-2000: -0,6 6,4 Madrid-Barajas (t January y t annual) (Airport) -1961-1990: 5,5 13,9 -1971-2000: 5,4 14,1 Salamanca-Matacán (t enero y t anual) (800m) -1961-1990: 3,7 11,6 -1971-2000: 3,6 11,7 Albacete- Los Llanos (t enero y t anual) -1961-1990: 5,0 13,5 -1971-2000: 4,8 13,6 Vigo-Peinador (t enero y t anual) -1961-1990: 8,2 13,4 -1971-2000: 8,3 13,6 Prague: T enero 61-90: -0,2 ºC T enero 71-00: 0,7 ºC T anual 61-90: 9,9 ºC T anual 71-00: 10,4 ºC A brutal increase there. You might also notice that the UK is perhaps NOT the greatest affected by the warming. Of course, some areas warm and others cool, and you still have an overall warming, but I just thought it was very interesting to see that whilst the whole of Europe seems to be getting warmer, much of Spain (at least the interior) seems to be holding around the same values. Is this indeed concrete evidence of the cold diving into Iberia like we often see?

We often complain about our winters warming (indeed, the whole climate) in the UK, and perhaps even more often about the "cold going south". Well look at this data for Spain compared to other countries, and how much of an increase there has/hasn't been across the two data sets (61-90 and 71-00). Brussels 2.5, 3,1 (January); 9.7, 10.2 (annual) Burgos 2.6, 2.7 (January); 9.9, 10.1 (annual) Ávila 3.2, 2.8 (January); 10.4, 10.4 (annual) León 3.1, 3.1 (January); 10.8, 10.9 (annual) Aachen 2.4, 3.0 (January); 9.7, 10.1 (annual) Freiburg 1.8, 2.4 (January); 10.8, 11.1 (annual) Karlsruhe 1.2, 1.9 (January); 10.3, 10.7 (annual) Notice Ávila (1130m) has actually fallen in January! Burgos (856m) has increased by 0.1-0.2, and León barely noticeably. Here is some other data, to compare with our cities: (January 61-90, 71-00, Annual 61-90, 71-00) London 4.6, 5.2, 10.7, 11.0 Oxford 4.1, 4.6, 10.1, 10.4 Manchester 3.8, 4.2, 9.5, 9.8 Washington 0.9, 1.7, 13.7, 14.2 Vienna-Hohe Warte (T January) - 1931-1960: -1,4 ºC - 1961-1990: -0,6 ºC - 1971-2000: 0,1 ºC Madrid- Navacerrada (T January y t annual) (NOT Madrid itself, at 1800m!) -1931-1960: -1,1 6,7 -1961-1990: -0,6 6,1 -1971-2000: -0,6 6,4 Madrid-Barajas (t January y t annual) (Airport) -1961-1990: 5,5 13,9 -1971-2000: 5,4 14,1 Salamanca-Matacán (t enero y t anual) (800m) -1961-1990: 3,7 11,6 -1971-2000: 3,6 11,7 Albacete- Los Llanos (t enero y t anual) -1961-1990: 5,0 13,5 -1971-2000: 4,8 13,6 Vigo-Peinador (t enero y t anual) -1961-1990: 8,2 13,4 -1971-2000: 8,3 13,6 Prague: T enero 61-90: -0,2 ºC T enero 71-00: 0,7 ºC T anual 61-90: 9,9 ºC T anual 71-00: 10,4 ºC A brutal increase there. You might also notice that the UK is perhaps NOT the greatest affected by the warming. Of course, some areas warm and others cool, and you still have an overall warming, but I just thought it was very interesting to see that whilst the whole of Europe seems to be getting warmer, much of Spain (at least the interior) seems to be holding around the same values.

How do you calculate that index John?

OK I agree it's difficult to draw a line. But 91 saw the 15 isotherm and very cold uppers for a long time, which we haven't really seen since. 50s to 69; 79 to 91 were all favourable in this respect, and even the in between period (Jan 72?) was favourable in this respect at times.

PS: btw Stratos, isn't it that 99% of values MUST fall within 3 SDs considering that it will be normally distributed? Or do you mean something different?

That's certainly true for me, BUT the first part to me is a bit contradictory. Yes, they were exceptional winters and nobody is suggesting they were they norm, but they did, at least, happen. Now the laws of probability allow for a winter like one of those 3 not to have happened since, and so far we could put it down to chance. But the problem is, nothing has even come close - we lack a Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 86 etc. etc. (Feb 09 doesn't really compare) and what used to occur about every other winter now hasn't occurred since Feb 91. For me at least, this makes "bad luck" impossible and shows that there must be something else at hand other than fortune. Good point, but whilst 63 had very prolonged cold, at no point did it have an exceptionally severe spell wrt cold uppers such as Jan 87. My real question is, when was the last time we reached -15 in England?

I agree that below -10 is rare, but if you are in a severe easterly spell (79, 81, 86, 87, 91 etc.) with the -15 isotherm above you, it would be surprising if -15c wasn't reached in at least one place in England. Most of the country covered in snow, so as soon as the wind dies down and the skies clear (which in 2 weeks+ of severe cold is likely) I would say that -15 would be difficult NOT to reach. These days those low temps seem to be restricted to the Highlands. When was the last time England reached -15? A long time is my guess, and yet in the 80s I would put money on this having happened at least once a year in most years (not all). And as I say, even -15 is 11c off the record minimum. The main reason for this is undoubtedly the lack of cold uppers. Take one of the best months, synoptically, in recent times - Feb 2005. Upper temps rarely, if ever, got to -10. To my knowledge, the last time the -15 isotherm arrived was 91, and in 87 and 56 the -20 clipped Kent. Once these cold uppers have been engrained into the flow over a long period of time, and the air falls slack, severe minima become an inevitability. Sadly, since 1991 we haven't even come close to such a setup - hence the sparsity of decent minima in the C21. Good times :lol: And there was I thinking the 1.5m drifts at Greenhow (420m) by the road in the Dales this week were impressive!

Perhaps in that post, but as I said earlier, snow was forecast very poorly in the N in general - when it was forecast it didn't fall as much, and when it wasn't, it did.

In terms of big snowfalls (1 ft plus) I always quote 2000/01 as having two such events. And yet it was above average to average depending on the benchmark.

TEITS, those figures are slightly selective!!! Shower activity was almost as intense in Yorkshire during the Thames Streamer, and lasted a lot longer - giving big depths to the E of the region but of course this wasn't mentioned and the focus was on the SE. Several frontal events brought snow to Yorkshire northwards, long after the snow had disappeared from London. As I say I have had a max. depth of 10 inches, with more in terms of how much fell in total, and only this afternoon has the snow (nearly) disappeared from the garden - that's 2 weeks of not being able to see the grass and snowy roads/pavements. The fact is that this snowy spell has been just as severe in parts of the N as it has been in many places further S. In fact in general I would say the N has seen as much snow as the S, and what fell stuck about for a LOT longer. SE Scotland saw a foot of snow fall in one go at one point, but this, again, hardly had a mention. What has had a mention is not indicative of how much snow has fallen or who has been hardest hit. You mention the E Midlands but Andy in Leicester has seen a fair bit less snowfall than most of Yorkshire!

-10c or below is hardly severe cold, though, considering that the record minimum in England is below -26. When was the last time we reached -15 in England? And even -15 is 11c warmer than the record minimum. The one thing that has been incredible for me personally this winter has been the amount of days of snow cover - 25 in total so far, including the whole of the past 2 weeks (that's not the 9am Meto definition, and starts from the first day of cover in November). I have never seen that in my memory before - but then like you say, at 18 I'm hardly likely to remember the 80s! In Feb 91 I was 2 months old. But even so, the fact that in a memory of say 14 years this is the first time 2 weeks of snow have been on the ground is pretty impressive. Not only that, but at the beginning of December when we both had a good fall, this also stuck around for about a week I think, which these days is pretty rare. As to days of snow falling: 24 so far, and the average in Leeming is 28 I believe. According to the Meto we should add on 5 extra days for altitude - I'm 150m higher so let's call that 35 days for this area, aprrox. That means we need another 11 days to break even the average! Which I suspect is very possible considering we have the 2nd half of Feb, March and April (perhaps May and June) but remember that's an average to meet there. Considering that this winter has been a lot snowier than recent winters (a LOT snowier) it puts it into perspective how un-snowy recent winters have been.

Scotland is much more powerful than England. England can't really do anything by itself as it has no parliament. Do you not think that if England had more independence, on a par with Scotland, it would reduce the need for the UK government to be so England-centred? It's not really a good idea to have such a range of different levels of power within one country. It's all very well and good for the people in the S to claim there is no bias, in either the media or the metoffice. But as a proud northerner, I can say that this bias most definitely exists, and penetrates almost every aspect of communications. There is no doubt that the main focus is on the S, whilst the North and Scotland get forgotten. Snow forecasting up here was terrible compared to in the S. There was one day when they forecast 50cm of snow over the Pennines, but they clearly hadn't bothered to look at the radar because at 10pm it was looking pathetic and yet they still ramped it up on the forecast like there was no tomorrow. Now the national hatred of Yorkshire is well known but it goes for the whole of Northern UK. The fact is that the further N you went in this cold spell, the worse the snow was forecast (listen to Shetland Coastie!). It was ridiculous IMO and happens regularly. Not only that, we then get accused of basing all this on the fact that we "didn't see any snow" in this "appalling winter", despite the fact that I saw way more snow than the people who made all these comments. >(

Sorry but that's just not true! Local knowledge is vital when making forecasts. Type in the forecast for Madrid and you'll get terrible results in the winter - the temps are usually about 3c to high, owing to the fact that they ignore the very high altitudes of central Spain. Similarly, the climate of the Highlands is equally poorly made IMO.

Excellent post Tamara. The question for me, too, will be - Will the PDO remain negative as in the 60s, or will it follow the ways of the past 2 coolings, i.e. short-lived events?

I'm sorry but I don't get this at all. As I said earlier, for all I have disagreed with SF in the past (and there have been many times!) he never changed the benchmark like people suggested and if you read an earlier post he said that sub-3c was looking very likely. He then pointed out that it was a Hale winter however, which I think is a fair point to make. And remember - we haven't breached 3c yet! Nor has he excluded the possibility of other outcomes: I personally think it's a case of people ganging up on people whose opinions - probably close to the truth - aren't liked. Is the arrogance in the eye of the beholder perhaps? Just to note, that if the 12z GFS came off, we would be back in there with a sub 3... however we need to see the ECM first.

OK, done the maths and we need February to come in at 2.0c to equal 85/86 which would put it as the joint-warmest hale winter on record. Therefore 2008/09, whilst a below average winter, will almost certainly come out as the mildest hale winter ever, as I cannot see sub-2c being possible now! FWIW my punt for February is now 3.2 (not that that's part of the competition btw!).

Good post TWS. I never watch forecasts on the TV these days and if I want one I just go on the internet and fast forward to the point where they actually begin to forecast, rather than nowcast (i.e about 2/3s of the way through).

Very true about the cloud breaking and the sun coming out - especially during mid February onwards. I remember walking around Christmas (just before the cold frosty spell set in) and thinking how the sun could hardly be noticed despite an almost entirely clear day. Today I went out into the garden and sat in a chair thinking how warm the sun felt! Very unscientific I know, but from now on the sun really kicks off exponentially. Therefore it will have an even bigger difference towards the end of the month. The upside of skies clearing is that night time minima are lower. Whether it will be sub 3c or not will most likely be down to whether we can see a return to cold by the month's end, because this mild spell is certainly going to have drastic effects. Looking at the stratosphere situation it does look as though winter will have another "bite" at some point, but this may not arrive before March. Furthermore it seems prospects of even a half-decent northerly have faded today and the jet is looking a lot less amplified with a flatter NW'ly or even WNW'ly, not originating from a cold source. IF we see a return to proper blocking towards the end of the month, a sub 3c month becomes a distinct possibility, but if the only cooler interlude we get is a flattened toppler, then this looks unlikely now IMO. One thing's for sure - judging by your earlier post, this will be the first Hale winter that hasn't seen a sub 1c month (although whether it is the mildest hale winter ever is looking somewhat unlikely). I'll just go and have a look to see what we need to avoid this.

What you say is statistically true - but if I ask you this might it make you change your mind? 1998 6.1 9.6 15.2 10.6 1999 5.4 9.9 15.9 11.4 2000 5.4 9.2 15.7 10.7 2001 4.5 8.5 16.1 11.4 1998 to 2001 had progressively colder winters, and springs also trended down (as you describe data at the moment). Conclusion? We were on a cooling trend. But then things warmed up! The point is that you simply cannot pick a couple of seasons and say that we are heading up or down. Show me 10 years that show an overall downward trend, and I will agree. But there isn't such data to be found, sadly! Probability makes it well within the bounds of normality for 2 winters and summers in a row to be colder, but for there still to be an upward trend. Remember my analogy of the tide?

Stratos, that is an excellent post, extremely informative - and at the end, so true! It's probably worth mentioning today's maxima, because they were widely progged around the 6-7c mark for this area. It's got to 8.8c here today - the 2nd warmest day of the winter so far. Only Fylingdales and Emley Moor have remained below 7c; both are at considerable altitude, and Dishforth broke double figures. I await minima to show a similar pattern tonight. You made a comment in the January thread about people ignoring your posts and laughing at them (often without any basis other than being in the anti-AGW camp). Well for all you and I have disagreed, it would be a great shame for posts like the above to disappear, and I hope you don't take your bat home one day! There are many on here I am sure that still value your contribution despite, as I say, disagreements at times.

I agree with this. At the end of the day there IS an issue that needs to be addressed, but the answer is to take it up with the UKMET, and not just go and build another one at great expense. NR's argument is that devolution means that things such as currency cannot be decided by Scotland, but "less important" things such as health can (this creates the comparison with Ireland, because both have the power to deal with more trivial matters such as the weather). However, as I said earlier, Scotland already has a metoffice, whereas Ireland has nothing else to fall back on. The way to solve this issue is to take it up with the UKMET, or to go back to having more regional stations, including one in the Great City of Inverness

Another thing that no one has mentioned is the BBC graphics on the TV. Now if you notice about half of the forecast covers the SE, zoomed right in, about 10 miles off the ground with loads of places marked on. As you go further N, you are more and more "skimmed over" and further away from the ground. You are lucky if they even reach Northern Scotland, and it's tilted so it's incredibly difficult to see once you are N of the Central Lowlands. This cannot be fair. My take on this is that EVERYONE in the UK has the right to an equal high standard of weather forecast, and steps should be taken to make this possible. Saying "well hardly anyone lives in Nern Scotland so they may as well skim over it" isn't really the right attitude as even some of the tiniest of the Hebrides have 20 ppl on them! (Whether they have TV yet is another matter )

That is a disgrace! How it can be fair for Essex to have a radio station but then only one for the whole of Scotland, a country 2/3 of the size of England, is absurd! I don't know how southerners even have the face to claim there is no bias wrt N and S (I think the bias is more SE compared to the rest of the UK because I don't see the West Country getting much of a look in either most of the time). If you go independent, can Yorkshire join in?

Even those snow depth records are biased, because there is no way I have seen as little snow as has been reported on there! I stand by the fact that the S has NOT seen as much snow as the N (generally) this cold spell, but it appears that way because of the media and Metoffice. I have seen more snow than Peterborough, London, Hampshire etc. - probably about the same as Northants. There is no way that most of the action has been in the S, it's just that S of the Yorkshire border is the only action that has been reported. Not only that, but the N has held onto the snow for a lot longer. Most places in the S have seen rain and milder temps to wash away the snow, but the N is/has been able to hold onto much lower maxes and last night was the first time I have seen rain for weeks. There is no way you have had as much snow as up here, I'm sorry!