North-Easterly Blast

This thread is to discuss the Novembers of 1996 and 2005. They both had very mild beginnings and ended up below average CETwise. Nov 2005 started very mild and in fact stayed that way until the 13th, but then a cold high built from the north with severe frosts and an Arctic outbreak ended the month with snow across Devon on the 25th and snow across the Yorkshire Pennines on the 28th. Nov 1996 also started very mild with a Bartlett High and temps up to 16-17*C, but then cold north-westerlies became frequent and the second half of Nov 1996 was notably cold with frequent northerlies and snow on the 19th and 24th. Kevin Bradshaw (Mr Data); I do believe that the first half of Nov 2005 had a CET well into the 9s, but the second half was only in the 2s. I have no idea what the CET was for each half of Nov 1996, I seem to recall the second half of Nov 1996 being cold on a similar scale to the same time in 2005. Maybe Kevin can answer this? Which was colder, the second half of Nov 1996 or 2005, and by how much?

Yes, I know winter 1968-69 was much different and far colder than recent winters. The point I am trying to make is that January 1969 was a mild dissapointment in an otherwise cold winter. Jan 1969 was a very negative NAO month that was also well above average CETwise, and Scandy and Greeny Highs were present but they did not influence the UK with cold N'lys / E'lys. The rest of that winter was cold to severe especially the February but the mild January was the dissapointment. The point is that Jan 1969 should have been far colder than it actually was with such a negative NAO and good Greeny / Scandy Highs. Had Jan 1969 been a much colder month then winter 1968-69 would have been superb and fallen into the severe category.

I think that the winters of 1951-52 and 1952-53 were average snowwise. Jan 1952 was a polar maritime NW'ly month; very sunny with frequent snow in northern areas and further south at times. The first half of Feb was much the same, although it was anticyclonic later on. Dec 1952 was a cold month with fog early and heavy snowfalls around mid-month, and milder towards Christmas, and colder again at the end. Jan 1953 was a dry anticyclonic month and rather cold with frequent fogs however there was a cold spell early on with some snow in parts. Feb 1953 had a cold first half with frequent northerlies and was quite snowy in a number of areas but the second half saw mild SW'lies. The winters of 51-52 and 52-53 were overall quite cold by today's standards with close to average snowfall but certainly far from severe. 53-54 was also pretty cold in Jan and Feb with some good cold, snowy spells and 54-55 and 55-56 saw prolonged severely cold spells - a reasonable decade for cold wintry weather were the 1950s.

I for one just cannot understand the possibility of two Octobers on the trot with a 13*C CET. The only time anything close to this happened was in the Octobers of 1968 and 1969 with CETs of 12.5 and 13.0 respectively. To get the warmest September / October combination broken two years running is just unthinkable. Although last year only broke it by a tenth of a degree a believe. This month is just almost repeating the surface pressure patterns of last October - warm southerlies in second week - Scandy High mid month, Greeny High but mild low pressure in the UK third week, and so on. Oct 2006 is just seemingly a rerun almost to the weather patterns on almost exactly the same day as Oct 2005.

Many of us know that January 1969 was a very negative NAO month but was also a pretty mild month in the UK. The only spell of cold weather that month occurred during the first week. There was often a Greenland High present that month and cold air built up to the north of the UK and over Scandinavia as cold easterlies often covered that area as the Arctic High frequently appeared, but for the UK, although in a very negative NAO setup with pressure always low over the Azores, low pressure areas became slow moving to the west of Ireland leaving the UK in "no mans land", with frequent mild southerlies and south-westerlies covering the UK - although that month never featured a Bartlett and / or constant depressions running through the GIN corridor producing the classic mild winter setup. The point I will make is that January 1969 should have been far colder than it actually was as the synoptics / negative NAO was so close to delivering something special for the UK. When one looks at the NAO state for the 1968-69 winter, one would think that winter should have delivered something approaching the severity of 1978-79. One of the biggest let downs of negative NAO in January 1969 I think, and certainly a close but no cigar scenario. This week highlights this as the models predicted much colder weather from the north for the UK late this week, but the low pressure just becomes slow moving to the west of the UK and just keeps us in mild SW'lies.

Well, it is now the time to write an article on this. This weekend sees the eleventh anniversary of that exceptional October day in 1995, and falls on the correct day of the week as well, it was Sunday October 8th, when from a sunny, clear blue sky, temperatures reached 25*C over a wide area of the UK, from London all the way up to Leeds, around the latest date in the year 25*C was registered in the UK, and the warm weather continued through the whole of the second week of October 1995 with day temps in the low 20s in many areas. This was one of the most legendary October heatwaves of the past and was part of one of the four warmest Octobers on record in the UK, and the last true warm dry October. I know two of the other warmest Octobers on record have occurred since then, in 2001 and 2005, but neither of them produced a notable heatwave anything like what we saw in 1995, and this was the last occasion I am aware of that a week of maxes into the 20s occurred widely in the UK so late in the year. To find other notable October heatwaves we have to look at early October 1985 which saw temps up to 28-29*C on the 1st, but temps fell to average levels by the 3rd/4th, and a similar heatwave occurred in early October 1959, and October 1969, which was, until 2001, the warmest on record, saw a prolonged spell similar to October 1995. This is a thread discussing past October heatwaves, at the anniversary also to the day of the week as the one in 1995, and for anyone else to post other occasions of October heatwaves and notable warm spells.

What, the warm September of 1999 preceded an average winter! Oh no it didn't. It led to a mild winter. Winter 1999-2000 was mild with a CET at 5.4 and had little snowfall, and Jan & Feb 2000 were both very poor for cold weather fans, with high pressure sat over the UK in Jan giving no more than average days and colder nights with frosts and mainly mild SW'lies in February. The winters following the warm Septembers of 1947 and 1949 were mild overall CETwise, but like recent winters, had their cold moments with a bit of snow at times. The winters that followed the warm Septembers of 1929 and 1959 were slightly milder than average although with some reasonable cold wintry spells. The warm September of 2005 led to a winter that was average CETwise but had little snowfall. Winters 1958-59 and 1961-62 were only slightly below average, not that cold really. I mean to say that a warm September is rarely followed by a particularly cold winter and the only exception to this is when there is a large block over Europe during the October, like in 1978 and 1985.

I would suggest that when final figures come in or at the end of the year the September CET could possibly get revised down to 16.7 or 16.6. They first put June down as 16.1 and then downgraded it to 15.9. Yes, September has become equally as repetitive as the winter patterns with warmth year after year. Until 1997 there was no sign of a warming trend, after in fact a run of average to cool Septembers between 1986 and 1996 except for 1989 and 1991. Around 1997/1998 there was a major upward trend in Sept temps, with since then a persistent recurring pattern in most years of the Azores High frequently crossing the UK into Europe dragging in more persistent S'lys / SE'lies, and any unsettled spells being limited to low pressure stagnated west of Ireland dragging up unsettled spells on warm TM SW'lies. One or both of these patterns sums up every September since 1997 with the exception of 2001 which produced frequent changeable W'lies / NW'lies resulting in the only September with an average to slightly below CET since the mid 90s. It is just so odd that September warmth year after year has repeated and I would say does contribute towards milder than average winters to follow. Exceptions to mild winters after a warm September only seem to occur when there is a large block over Europe during October such as in 1978 and 1985. June has also joined the repetitive warm territory since 2003, after showing no warming until then. The past four Junes have seen a rather repetitive pattern of Azores Highs moving into Europe giving more frequent June heatwaves, or changeable TM SW'lies. October is a month that has not shown any warming trend since the 1960s and although three of the four warmest Octobers on record have occurred in the last 11 years there was also a run of average Octobers from 1997-2000, and a run of average to cool Octobers from 2002-2004, so Oct still has shown some variability in recent years.

No, there have been proper cold UK years since 1979; 1985 and 1986 were both cold years with annual CETs below 9*C, and 1996 was the last below average annual CET at 9.20*C.

Kevin Bradshaw, Mr Data; You may be able to help me here. I am aware that this September, 2006 has been warmer than every June but one in the past 100 years, and has been warmer than August for the first time since ?, and warmer than ? Julys and ? Augusts in the last century, so it goes to show what an exceptional month this September has been. Mentioning your August synoptics that a very northerly month only produced an average August CET of 16.1; I will add my point that for a time our northerlies were coming round the northern flank of an Azores High, and the furthest north our August northerlies originated from were from the Iceland / southern Greenland area or Scandinavia - none of these areas are cold enough in August to get a CET in the 13s. To get an August CET in the 13s you would need to see bands of low pressure centered over the UK much of the time, or frequent northerlies from deep inside the Arctic circle over the UK - and to add to it frequently cloudy weather in August prevented any cool nights - in actual fact Aug 2005 saw much cooler nights than Aug 2006. Had there been less cloud in August and more cooler nights we would have been looking at a CET possibly in the low to mid 15s.

The models are now hinting at low pressures crashing over us as we go into early October, so another wet October could well follow this warm September. I just wonder why we just get September warmth year after year, followed by very wet weather in October. I would just love to see an October like 1995, or even 1985 which was very dry as well. Dry blocked Octobers have been almost entirely absent in recent years.

Sounds a reasonably good forecast to me, probably indicating a winter that's likely to be close to last winter in terms of overall temperature which would be reasonable for recent years anyway. They mention about El Nino developing, and in 97-98 there was a strong El Nino and we all know what a disastrously mild winter in the UK that one turned into. At least they have not gone for a 97-98 disaster. Is this coming winter's El Nino likely to be a strong one or a weak one? They did issue a positive NAO forecast in July, but to me it suggests they are now expecting a more neutral NAO with it going either way at times. The Met Office to me seem as though they are suggesting that a winter similar to 05-06 or even 00-01 is a likely outcome at this stage, but with an El Nino on the development, in my view increases the chance of the winter turning out a real stinker like 97-98. I know winter 97-98 had a strong El Nino in place, but what other winters did. I do not know myself and neither do I know winters that had a weak El Nino in place.

I know there are rare exceptions Mr Data, but the point I am making is that at least 90-95% of colder than average spring months follow cold winter months. It is rare for a cold winter not to lead to one or more colder than average months in the spring that follows. The truth in it is that the weather patterns in especially January and February are often repetitive throughout the spring months and that as long as milder than average winters continue we are very unlikely to see colder than average spring months and the main key to getting a colder overall yearly CET is to get colder weather during Jan and Feb which will very likely lead to some cold spring months as well, and put us well on the way for a sub 10*C yearly CET. I cannot see a pattern to below average summer months; these are random in that sometimes they follow cold winter / spring months but sometimes they do not. I also cannot see any link in below average autumn months leading to cold winter months, but the link between cold winter months leading to cold spring months almost always follows.

With this thread for yearly CETs, and the relentless run of 10*C+ years, I would add that I have noticed that when January or February or both are colder than average, the weather patterns are often repetitive during the spring months, and after a cold Jan or Feb one or more of the spring months are below the seasonal average too. This was illustrated that after the cold Feb in 1996 both March and May were below average, and also after Jan 1987 both March and May were cold, and again the severe Feb 1986 led to the first five months of that year being cold, and again in 1985 apart from April; even Feb 1983 was cold and led to April and May being so too. 1979 was a perfect example; the whole spring was cold after the severe winter, in 1969 the spring was cold after the severe Feb, and again in 1955. I have come to the conclusion that if you have a mild winter and especially if Jan / Feb are mild, the chances are very low that you will get any below average spring months, as in recent decades certainly cold spring months have almost always followed cold winter months. Whenever we can get a cold or at least colder winter, it will put us well on the way to getting a sub 10*C year. I would say that it is almost impossible to get a "true" cold year (below 9*C) without getting one or more severe winter month less than 2*C, as almost all cold years below 9*C have severe cold winter months.

Thundery wintry showers; The 11 years from 1986-1996 actually saw a run of average to cool Septembers, with only two Septembers in that period being above average by any means. Not only 1992-1996, extending the period back to 1986 continues the run apart from two. Yes, regarding November, I will be very concerned if this coming October is wet, and November this year has mild SW'lies, or a mild Azores High, as it will mean that the patterns for the whole of autumn 2006 will have repeated what has been so common in each of the autumn months of the last ten years, and it will suggest that the winter weather patterns of recent years will re-assert themselves and lead to another mider than average season with only relatively short spells of cold weather. We had a run of mild Novembers from 1997 to 2004; in that period only Nov 1998 actually fell below average, so the mild November trend since the mid 90s has almost been just as evident as the warm September trend.

Thundery wintry showers; Why in particular has November this year got a high chance of being very mild? I do not see how you base this. And besides, October 2003 was rather dry, with 67mm of rain. Septembers 2002 and 2003 were still above average, although not outstandingly so.

I would hardly call December 2001 a very cold month. Yes it was below average but it was not notably so, it was certainly not a patch on Dec 1995. Dec 2001 was reasonably good for recent years in its cold spell it featured in the final ten days with severe frosts at times and some snow in parts of the UK, but the rest of the month wasn't up to much, a rather mild start followed by two weeks of anticyclonic non-descript weather.

What actually was the NAO index for the winter 2005-06? I do not know myself. I know they predicted negative NAO last year, but was it? I see that the UKMO are predicting slightly positive this year, which does not imply a 1997-98 mild rout disaster, or even 2001-02, does it? I would say that even with a weakly positive NAO it may still be possible to get something as good as perhaps 2000-01.

I am just desperate to get rid of the warm weather now. It is great when it starts in May or June and throughout the summer but once September starts and the nights draw in I am sick of it and would like to see some proper autumn weather with a mix of wind, rain, drier spells with autumn mists and proper September temps of 17-18*C, not the summer heights of 25*C. Septembers that are cool and wet with wind and rain and 16-18*C temps combined with spells of dry autumn mists and pleasant sunny days do me - not September heatwaves. I would rather only have that in June, July and August. I would also love to see a warmer and dry, blocked October to make a change from the unsettled wet weather we have had to endure during many Octobers in the last ten years. Hopes are now been dashed that the GFS runs deep in FI are yet again beginning to develop a trend of low pressure developing right across the UK bringing back the wet October pattern of recent years. It is becoming the most repetitive factor of the post 1997 British climate to get this warm dry September / very wet and average or rather cold October, and if anything this pattern is now becoming even more repetitive than Bartlett Highs in the winter months. Will this ever change and will we ever see a cool wet September being replaced by warm / dry conditions in October again? The last time this happened was in 1995. Or will it just be the September warmth / October wetness year after year?

It is getting the most repetitive pattern of the post 1997 climate to have this warm September weather. It just seems impossible to get a cool or even average September nowadays. The GFS charts in deep FI are beginning to show again the October pattern of recent years which looks all too familar - that low pressure may begin to develop slap bang across the UK and give prolonged unsettled wet weather again, with indications that high pressure may again begin to build over Greenland again. We can just never seem to get a dry, blocked October. It would have been great to see an October like 1968, 1969, 1995 or even 1985 with warm anticyclonic weather bringing dry, warm days with some late season warmth, would be a great change from the unsettled wet weather we have had to endure too often in many Octobers of the past ten years.

Although the frequency of colder weather / colder synoptic types in the UK declined around 1988, the general weather pattern we see today was set back in early 1997. The facts are that all years but one since 1997 have seen annual CETs well above 10*C, and no more than 20 calendar months since 1997 have returned a below average CET, and it is now at least ten years since a notably cold month with a deviation of 2*C from the average occurred in any season. Whereas in the period 1988-1996 some years still had sub 10*C annual CETs, some colder than average months still occurred although not always in the winter, and these years showed more variability over most of the year in terms of the overall weather pattern. My main view is that until we see a return at least to annual CETs below 10*C we will never see a truly cold winter, and that a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 will be the best we shall get unless our weather at least reverts back to any pre 1997 type of weather patterns.

Yes, warm anomalies to the east of Newfoundland may encourage positive NAO conditions but why not zonality of a polar maritime origin?

Recent years have seen September develop a trend for as equally repetitive warm weather patterns as many winters since 1988 have seen. The question to be raised is that recent Octobers have often been dominated by low pressures over the UK and close to average temperatures. There have only been two above average temperature Octobers in the last ten years. It remains a puzzling fact that since 1997 September has almost always been the warm month, whereas October has almost always been the wet month and rarely much above average temperaturewise. One would think that it would have varied more with either of the two being the warm month. I tell you, if only we could get a September resembling many October's weather patterns of the past ten years, and an October resembling many recent Septembers, I am sure the winters would become different to many of the mild winters of recent years too. In recent years the typical weather patterns of various months are: January: A tendency for mild SW'lies; little significant N'ly or E'ly spells. February: Until recently a tendency for very mild weather; last 3/4 years seen a little more variability, often bringing a cold snap later in the month. March: A general trend for mild weather, occasional colder Marches have occurred. April: No consistency until 2002, then a trend for relatively warm weather. May: A trend for warm weather, rainfall variable. June: A warming since 2003. July: Shown little consistency over recent years. August: Relatively warm over recent years, rainfall no consistency. September: Very repetitive with warm and often dry weather. October: Often very wet with average temps. November: A tendency for mild SW'lies, or mild dry Azores Highs over the UK. December: No bias towards cold, average or mild conditions. All have occurred. So, from my conclusion, the most repetitive trend at present, is the warm / dry September ; average / wet October combination and if anything this pattern has now become more repetitive than any other months of the year. Will it ever end? We are now looking at breaking the record for the longest run of consecutive Septembers with CETs over 14*C; previous records have been four in a row. Sep 2006 will make five in a row, so will be a record. If this month, Sep 2006 has a CET over 15*C, then it will be another record gone and the only instance of two successive Septembers over 15*C.

Looking at this week's SST anomaly chart it does seem to show warm anomalies of the west of Central South America. Does this suggest that an El Nino event will develop later this autumn and into winter? There was a strong El Nino in 1997-98 and we all know how disastrously mild a winter that turned into for the UK at least. Warm anomalies are also present east of Newfoundland too, and I wonder what effect that will have on our weather patterns and synoptics.

I think that the Jan 1987 / Feb 1991 easterlies were so cold because high pressure had developed over Scandy a week earlier and pulled some exceptionally cold air out of Russia. The Feb 2005 easterly still saw day temps above freezing as if you look at the synoptics that led to it, air of a cold source never flowed across eastern Europe before the easterlies set in. An Atlantic High quickly toppled over Scandy and a low pressure sank south so there was no build up of cold air over Europe. I also believe that the synoptics for Feb 1986 were set in late January but the easterly winds were not especially cold (day temps above freezing) until around the 5th / 6th Feb as it was then before intense cold had dug in over Europe.