North-Easterly Blast

I thought that the second half of November 1996 was cold with frequent northerlies and frosts and even some snow for some. The second half of November 1965 was also notably cold, so I wouldn't have thought that the second half of November 2005 was colder than this.

Until we see a return to below 10*C annual CETs we will never see a truly cold winter. Last winter came close to delivering something special, but still no cigar, due to persistent shortwvae features in the Greenland area which prevented high pressure building far enough north at a time when Europe became very cold. To predict now a severe February of a 1.2 CET is utterly ridiculus; going by the weather patterns and trends of recent years this would be almost impossible, to get the correct synoptics for a sufficiently prolonged period of time in any winter month for such a low CET to occur. We have not even seen a sub 3C month for ten years let alone a sub 2C month. We have already broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 2C months; previous longest was 14 years 10 months (1902-1916), it is now at least 15 years 10 months to 16 years and counting. On a more modest point of winter cold we have also broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 3C months (9 years 11 months now and counting).

Mr Data; Kevin Bradshaw; Where did you find the statistic that the first half of October 1974 was 0.5*C colder than the second half of December 1974? I do not know any website that tells you that information, only the monthly CET as a whole. That is ironic - the winter 74-75 was a big let down after such a cold autumn, especially during December and January.

Thank you very much summer blizzard for your data on warm Septembers and the Octobers and winter CET. I have certainly noticed even looking further back that a warm September was very rarely followed by a particularly cold winter (below 3.5 CET). To further your contributions - how about a list of warm Octobers (11*C+) and the following winters CET? And also what the CET was for the preceding September? My view is that in any autumn if October is a warm month, but September is not, then you do stand the greatest chance of a cold winter.

Much speculation from many people that this coming winter is likely to be milder than the long term average has arisen after the Met Office has issued a forecast of a positive NAO back in July, based on SST Anomalies in June. I do not know how they can base this to predict the weather 6-8 months down the line. SSTs are one factor, but others are involved as well. In my view things are not looking good for cold weather fans this coming winter especially with a weak El Nino developing, and warm SSTs to the east of Newfoundland, and this may well contribute to putting our part of the world in the grip of Bartlett High conditions. Only the Met Office have made a prediction yet, we still await Brian's on TWO and Ian Brown's on Net Weather. I would also like to say that I do not believe that any long range forecaster, not even the Met Office, back in the spring and even in May, predicted the scorching July that we have just had this year. Correct me if I am wrong. I will say that I would get much more excited if cool and unsettled weather in September was replaced by warm and dry conditions during October - this would indicate at least that the repetitive autumn weather patterns of recent years have changed, and that the forthcoming winter will deliver something different to recent winters. What I just love to see is frequent low pressures crossing the UK in September and then much high pressure over Europe influencing the UK's weather during October. What I just hate to see and am sick to death of is these patterns the opposite way round which has prevailed so much during recent years. I do not know what has happened to the UK's winter weather patterns. Before 1988, the chances of getting the sort of classic spells that we saw in 1962-63, 1969, 1979, 1981, 1985, 1986 and 1987 were about as equal as getting the mild zonality and Bartlett Highs that we saw in 1974, 1975, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1997, 1998 and 2002. Whereas now, and ever since 1988 all the odds seem to be stacked in our favour of the Bartlett High and / or constant depressions running through the Iceland / Greenland corridor.

I think that this warm September weather could well be nailing the coffin for a cold winter this year. In my view, a warm September is rarely followed by a cold winter, and historically this goes. A warm (14+CET) September is nearly always followed by a milder than average winter. One point I will make is that it does not always work the other way round (Cool September = Cold winter). What I will say that whilst it is not uncommon for the winter to be mild after a cool September, it is extremely rare for winter to be cold after a warm September. The only exception to this theory I can think of was in 1985, and also that October was very dry, blocked and warm. Whilst a cool or even average September in my view does not have much link to the following winter, there is certainly a link that a warm September is rarely followed by a cold winter.

No, winter 2005-06 was the coldest since 1995-96 overall. The overall winter Dec/Jan/Feb CET was 4.13*C, but was followed by a cold March at 4.9*C, so it was the coldest winter for ten years. Dec/Jan/Feb 1996-97 may have been 0.1*C colder but it is often forgotten that the March that followed was very warm at 8.4*C, so 1996-97 would seem a somewhat milder winter overall than 2005-06. Since 1987 only 1990-91 and 1995-96 were colder than 2005-06 and 96-97 was only marginally colder and only 1995-96 was followed by a cold March, so in general it could be looked as the second coldest winter since 1987.

I think that it is safe to say that we will not get a March 2006 CET above 7*C now. With the CET up to 11th at 2.8*C, and with the immediate forecast still cold and this will take us to mid-month, and so by the 16th the CET will probably still hardly get above 3*C, and to get the final CET over 7*C it would require the second half of March to have a CET of 11*C, warmer than the second half of March last year (10.6). There is still an outside possibility of a CET over 6*C I would think, but with the prospect of an easterly later in the week I think that there is a good chance of us getting a March 2006 CET similar to 2001

March CET 1st-9th is now 2.5*C, rising fast. Yes, this weekend looks quite chilly for many parts with less cold weather returning by Monday. Beyond that looks very uncertain, but the point I will make is that many people thought last March was going to be below average, indeed the CET was only 3.6*C up to the 14th, but prolonged exceptional warmth then kicked in for the rest of the month with maxima often well into the teens and the month overall ended up at least a full degree above average at 7.2*C. This month would still require northern blocking for much of the next three weeks and a lack of really mild weather similar to March 2001 to get this month below average. If this month is below average it will buck a trend that has persisted in many years in the UK since 1988 of warm Marches. The last time we had a fairly cold March was in 2001, and before that 1996.

I do not think that another above average March 2006 CET is out of the woods yet. The CET is rising rapidly, and we will be probably looking at the first half of March 2006 having a CET similar to the first half of March last year. Many people thought last March was going to be below average and it did look promising earlier in the month, but a prolonged exceptionally warm spell kicked in mid-month and persisted making March 2005 another 7+ March, so we still yet need to see a different pattern from last year and many other recent Marches to make this month be below average and even for it not to turn into another 7*C+ March.

The 1980s overall were not brilliant for cold / White Christmases either. Apart from Christmas 1981, most Christmases in the 1980s were generally mild, except for a post Xmas cold spell in 1985. I believe that Christmases 1983, 1987 and 1988 all saw prolonged mild spells. Regarding your post about Christmas Days 1990, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2004 seeing wintry precipitation in parts of the UK, I believe that on all those Christmas Days hardly any area in the UK actually saw a measurable covering of snow, with the only exception being 1995, although the blizzards were largely confined to Scotland and the north of England that day.

A late Feb / early March cold spell for the fourth time in six years, what cold spell! The weather in the last week or so of February this year was hardly what I would call cold - many days had maxima around 5*C and night minima were often above freezing, so only slightly below the late Feb average, and by no means a true late Feb cold spell like 2004 and 2005. This year we just have an early March cold spell, it has only been since March 1st that the weather has been COLD. Late Feb 2006 wasn't COLD, it was only just below average. True, we did have late Feb / early March cold spells in 2001, 2004 and 2005, but 2006 is just an early March cold spell.

I would love us to see a colder March than recent years, as many years in the UK since the late 1980s have had a March CET above 7*C; there have only been five times in the last 18 years that this has not happened. Last year's March looked promising, starting off with cold northerlies and some snowfall, giving the coldest first half since 1996, but then mid-month it all went belly up as a Bartlett High developed and gave an exceptionally warm second half; the warmest since 1938 and so we still ended up with a 7*C+ March. Before 1988 you could only expect around two 7+ Marches per decade, we had seven in the 1990s, and already four this decade.

Judging by this morning's models we could be looking at a rubbish and often mild February. The GFS & Ensembles show mainly zonality throughout the run. Brian Gaze on TWO forecasted a cold wintry February in his winter forecast. He did not forecast that January would be up to much, so he has been pretty accuarate so far, but I think his February forecast could be going down the pan.

This winter looks set to be a rerun of 1991-92 - a high pessure area was slap bang over the UK all winter! It was a snowless winter for most of the country, and among the most snowless on record. I just hate winters where high pressure sits over the UK all winter - OK it is not that mild but useless for snowfall, and really cold air cannot flow across the UK with a high pressure slap bang over it. Winters like this and 1991-92 are the next most awful winters for me after mild routs like 88-89, 89-90, 74-75, 97-98, Jan/Feb 2002 etc. The only other winter like 91-92 I can think of was 1963-64, although was coldish (3.5). This winter is just turning into a 1991-92 disaster. Dec 05 and Jan 06 have been just like that winter.