Just Below Zero

A lot of talk lately about the reliability of the ensembles and I can see where people are coming from. However we must remember that the ensembles are only tweaked at small variances from the early part of the operational. Therefore if a model's operational run has changed markedly early in its run to a milder theme say, then it follows that all the ensembles will start from that milder base. This will have the effect of the flip flops we have seen recently. The ensembles turn arounds are therefore more likely to occur when Model divergence starts early say T72 instead of T120. With this in mind the use of ensembles can still be used as a useful tool :unsure:

If the GFS 18Z at 240 plus comes to fruition it will more likely hesdline "SCOTLAND REGLACIATED"

No apparent light at the end of the tunnel over at ECM HQ

Totally agree If you want to see the doctor the best place is in his waiting room ready to be called. I too am sure the models will start to show the jet slipping south again shortly :blush:

Having looked at some archives I have found a similar set of charts to the ones at present. These are from Jan 1940. Having had a prevous cold spell with undercutting LPs and SWs the UK is now left in no mans land on the 7th http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1940/Rslp19400107.gif Large siberian high is evident. HP manages to exert an influence by the 9th just as current ECM predicts. Could go either way... By the 10th Full Easterly is starting to develop. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1940/Rslp19400110.gif Later the HP slips SE as some say today might happen although in this case heights develop over Greenland to keep the cold weather going. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1940/Rslp19400115.gif

Dont worry, my kids are used to it now. They go out in the garden every morning and build a noman

Dorchester ....Rain Anyone want to buy a snowdome? Proven record intact, no previous owners Going cheap In fact I'll give it away, any takers?

South Dorset snowdome still intact. Just enough perforations to let the rain in

Split PV reload complete Waiting for the next bullet http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100109/12/135/h850t850eu.png

ECM 12z looks to me to be a even larger teapot evolution to a traditional winter synoptic. Other models look more in keeping particularly the lesser thought of ones. I expect a slider eventually filling before a LP tracks NE from the channel giving two snow events before the second turns to rain

Interesting to see that despite the earlier threat of just light snow as depicted by some models, the meto have just published the following.... Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: Becoming windy with periods of snow starting during Sunday and lasting through and including Tuesday. Some of the snow will be heavy and it will be very cold. Updated: 1530 on Fri 8 Jan 2010

Can any one learned enough explin to me why the cloud associated with the LP to our south west appears to be mot only moving NW as one would expect but at a midway point appears to track SE against the wind flow. I saw it earlier but lt seems more pronounced as it pushes up towards the BI. See Sat 24 /www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop jbz

Lucky git nothing down here in Arctic Annorexiashire

Better than an anorak! :lol:

Snowing Heavily in Dorchester against all odds and pitching despite daytime temps of 7.3C

Yeah tundra but what does it mean?

Phil B 1 Louby 1 Rixxxxgolf 2 MPR 2 Hilton 1

Snowed hevily here at about 1987. AD that is

Much talk about blocking to the north and easterlies to come in Feb but look at metos chart for the winter so far

24c and steady. OH You mean outside?

I can confirm in S Dorset temp at 2320 was +4.1C. Cant see where any snow will come from here

Much more eloquently put than I did Tamara Welldone

Anyone would think the M4 is the 528 dam line ! Some of the regionalistic wishing here is quite tiresome. I hope that all our members can benefit from the next fewdays.

Nick you sound as if you are just going out and you may be sometime!! Hoefully not committing modelcide

Scandi High starting to show some stiffening at 150h Beasterly anyone