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Continental Climate

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    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So my winter score this year is a 3/10. Here in darlo we had about 5-6 days of laying snow early December with 4 days of falling snow during that period. We always do a little better in darlo than teesside for snow. The chase in mid January was horrendous it seemed to go on for ever and delivered next to nowt. February was beyond bad it's been horrendous Feb has barely delivered a frost. Feb was a 0/10 for me. 

    So another poor winter is almost over and it must be said that we are increasingly struggling to get anything out of our warming climate. I really think we are going to be looking at more and more snowless winters as the years go by. 

    Anyway guys see you all next November for more fruitless painful chases 😄. 

    • Like 4

    Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I am of the opinion that the only teleconnection that really matters nowadays is AGW. We have the odd die hard in the mad thread that thinks there is no AGW and it's all a con but thankfully they are in the extreme minority now and sound increasingly ridiculous. No cold signal can override oceans that are so ridiculously warm now as to be totally terrifying. I really have no idea where we will be in 30 years time but if things keep going as they are, well we are in serious trouble. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Continental Climate

    The models look pretty horrendous atm if you are of the cold persuasion. This chase has been interesting and tiresome at the same time. I personally have learned a lot. A true greenie high was never really apparent in the models. We had a uk high being sucked up to the south of greenie but no further. To be honest we had a ridge at best. A true greenie high has to develop in that area not be dragged there from the uk or azores. That's the main thing I will take from this chase. Also believe nothing that is not within t72 and has full model and ensemble support because this is the uk and if something can go wrong it will. Time for a break I think for a few days. 

    • Like 10

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The vast majority of the country will see no snow by next thur/fi, which is a bitter blow considering the length of the chase. Things may look better by beginning of Feb however we all know how difficult it is to get out of zonality once it sets in. I'm not throwing the towel in for winter but jan I think is now finished. I just hope i see something on Tuesday for my location. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The models barring timing differences and the odd ensemble member which survives the carnage bring a rather depressing outlook towards next weekend .

    The Canadian troughing ejects at rapid speed , flattens the pattern and very little energy heading se .

    I don’t think anyone saw this rate of collapse . 

    The ECM to come but it would be close to a miracle if that didn’t follow the other models .

     

    That's what has shocked me the most nick the rate of collapse. I thought 22nd/23rd but not this. The collapse is actually being brought forward. 18th/19th on some models. 3/4 day cold snap. 

    • Like 2
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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Yes shocking how this northerly airstream and blocking over Greenland gets pushed away by Friday. 

    I have viewed archived charts of blocking and arctic northerlies Feb 69 for example and they  have gone on to form Scandi highs and even colder weather,many times, not anymore it seems, always now the Atlantic just barrels through and the game is up. 

    Let's hope this low is modelled further north  mid-week so at least some get some snow. By next weekend it's back to mild Atlantic crud and rain and a million miles away from any cold weather and snow  bar the Highlands. 

     

    What a surprise said no one ever 🤮

    I think it's down to a warming ocean and a north America that seems to have escaped the level of warming we have suffered. Warm ocean cold NA Powering up the jet, no block can resist. 

    • Like 2
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