Magadan
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Posts posted by Magadan
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That's now an hour of falling snow here today. The quality is all very dry and fine, whereas the density remains light.
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Snowing lightly here, but some big fluffy clumps are coming down. That makes 4 falling snow days here this week, possibly 5 if a tiny flurry is included.
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Have never witnessed the River Foyle freeze over in my life time. Fantastic sight!!
River Bann is frozen over in Portadown as well, with lying snow on the ice today.
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Well another Epic winters day
Never have i seen such epic winter weather all it one go.I was born in 1978
Bitterly cold day today -4 bit breezy this morning.now we have Freezing fog in dublin.
Cant imagine another cold snap for a long time will be as good as this.
Epic
Don't be so sure. Joe B'astardi (amongst others) is predicting this to become more common.
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Having had a quick look at the GFS i fully expect The Met Office to put the Snow Weather Warnings back on for County Down. The latest GFS run shows ppn from T+57 onwards and whilst it gets more marginal as the irish sea moderates the temperatures, higher parts of County Down will get hammered.
This is looking more and more like another Met Office cock up in the making.
I honestly do not believe that the met office have a clue about the weather nor indeed care about the weather in NI.
I have to say they seem to rely too much on models and overlook longstanding patterns (IMHO). I'm guessing that's why Joe B'astardi was able to call the winter correctly and they said it would be mild.
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It's now snowing v heavily. I haven't seen conditions like this since I was a child!
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Snow starting here now as well, albeit just a few flakes. A wall of white looms in the sky to the northeast.
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yeah its the same shower. its moving in a sw direction and i managed to catch the western edge of it. missed the heaviest part of it though. still left another good covering. how much did you get from it? incredible luck to have caught that shower on what i thought would be a completley dry nite!
I measured it at approx 4 cm, but there was around <1 cm lying on the ground unthawed from last night. A real spot of luck for us both then! I can go to bed happy now!
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snow getting much heavier here now. car is completely covered again!
Is that from a different shower than the one that dumped a load on me an hour ago?
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Very heavy snow here for the past 30 minutes, lying deep on top of last night's lighter load. This is the heaviest fall here for a few years. I'm hoping other parts get their share too!
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Snowing moderately (in terms of density) but very steadily here, and lying well on the sharp frost. Was too warm in bed, got up, looked out and was pleasantly surprised!
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But how much snow will there be? That's the question. Been pretty much starved here in Belfast
.Maybe you'll just have to walk in a Windsor Wonderland instead.
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The Sperrins are BURIED in snow. You can tell theres a lot of snow when all you can see is brilliant white and nothing else, they look like they've been painted white!
Excellent stuff. I only get to view them from a hill above Richhill but they did look very white. The Mournes looked sensational too and it bodes well from some excellent winter walks over the weekend, all being well. On that note, happy new year to all on both sides of the border and let's have a nice snowy white January!!!
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@ John Holmes & wysiwyg, many thanks for the informative replies!
Yes, with aerodynamics it's non-linear equations that are trimmed down and require massive computing power (Computational Fluid Dynamics aka "CFD"). It's not the most accurate method and gets worse when dealing with turbulent flow, etc. So the weather, being a vastly scaled up version of this, complete with a huge range of thermodynamic factors as well, is clearly not going to be easily modeled with current technology and computing power, which is what got me thinking about a different, more statistical "matching" approach rather than taking fragmented / extrapolated data sets and feeding them into algorithms that essentially consist of non-linear equations that have been dumbed down into manageable linear ones! As things stand, it's low quality initial data fed into necessarily non-comprehensive equations, which is why (it now seems to me) a high level of accuracy beyond a few days is unattainable from the models alone.
I may indeed email the Met Office but I think they might be reluctant to let me know too much detail about their modeling as I'm guessing its proprietary information!??
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no model has any bias in spite of a number on here maintaining they do.
All base their output on the laws of thermodynamics-all have slightly different soft ware packages (not a really apt name for the complexity of these) which is likely to give differing results even using the same basic data input. But none have preprogamming in to make for a default set up at any stage.
They have differing numbers of levels through the atmosphere, differing methods of doing the mathematics, differing time scales, differing length grid points and some differing length grid points at different time intervals.
Some times I am quite surprised with all these differences at just how close the results are for them. Just goes to show that the basic laws they all follow do work IF we had an absolutely accurate set of data which can never ever happen. Nor can the human made rules for the computers ever be as perfect as they would have to be to get perfect answers to the weather, be it 1 hour ahead or 1 month or 1 year-fortunately in my view.
this is the link into UK Met web site about their models so may be of interest to you and others; I would imagine that you can log on to both GFS (NOAA) and ECMWF, and get a similar amount of information about how they programmes their models.
hope it helps anyway
So am I right in this: they take a snapshot, as it were, of the current conditions and then try to mathematically model what it will do in the next few moments and repeat this until they get a prediction? I can see why weather forecasting this way is fraught with so much uncertainty. The equations must be nightmarishly complex (I'm speaking from the viewpoint of being an aeronautical engineer in the past and I know how troublesome it is to model fluid dynamics).
This is going to sound naive / stupid, but has anyone ever tried to document and electronically store snapshots of atmospheric conditions going back decades so that the computers can use any current snapshot today to search for a "best fit" from the past and then see what happened next the last time things were setup as closely? It would probably be even less accurate than the current computational modeling, given the lack of in-depth data from the past and the impossibility of two identical weather thumbprints within what is a "chaotic" system.
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Just had a look at the Mournes half an hour ago and they've been well pasted from 750 ft upwards (my estimate but I hike (and therefore navigate) a lot there so it's not pie in the sky). So to anyone in greater Belfast or anywhere in the eastern side of NI, head down there if you need a fix of lying snow.
The higher Sperrins in the NW are also looking white, but they're too far off for me to be any more precise than that.
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I can't ever remember an easterly bringing us anything worth talking about. N or NW, even SW is better for us.
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When the heck can we expect this pile of crap to move away as it has been here for 3 days now nearly four and is just rising the temps up and down between 2.5c 3.5c all 3 days its awfull and is depressing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I do not care if i get snow as long as temps are colder alot colder by tomorrow!
Mate, you're living near the coast so you have to adjust your expectation levels accordingly. Either that or move to Braemar, Chamonix or somewhere else that gets deluged with snow.
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All of the earlier snow has long since fizzled out and been washed away plain old rain.
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Wet snow here falling steadily for past 15 minutes after short period of sleet in transition from earlier rain. Lying as slush on ground. (Richhill Co Armagh, elevation approx 200 feet ASL).
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It's now vacillating between sleet and snow... And I ain't ramping!
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Still no snow in Jordanstown, just spits and spots of rain.
This is really patheitic to be honest. Anyone who can remember back to 62/63,or 68/69, 78/79, 81/82 for that matter, will realise that this current cold spell is tame, tame I tell you. 1 brief spell of snow Sunday week back, which was largely gone by Monday. Hardly a classic winter in my books. Really just average. We had better snow events in the early noughties to be honest (2000/01 and 2001/02) and around Christmas time as well.
It's perhaps been pathetic where you are, but where I am (Richhill) the snow came on Friday 18th, again on Sunday 20th and a good top up late Tues 22nd into early Wed 23rd that saw lying snow right into Boxing Day, the longest period of lying snow here in years. And much of Tyrone has had even better conditions with a blanket of white lasting at least until yesterday (when I looked across country from a high vantage point near here), albeit drizzle and rain most likely has fallen there too, glaciating the snow cover.
Thus far today, it's rain but every so often there's the occasional flurry of wet flakes, so the higher levels (i.e. the Mournes) are likely to be getting the white stuff only. The point being, when you complain about it you're being very IMBY in your outlook, when even a short drive (by UK standards) would take you into decent conditions.
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Just watch out for people ramping rain to sleet and sleet to snow in some of their reports! Not accusing anyone, just something to bear in mind.
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The warnings from that site or quite poor to say the least all over the christmas period!! That low is not going to get anywhere near us and the snow showers not enough time for the north eastly to convect across the irish sea maybe one or two showers thats it 1mm of your lucky!!
Agreed, that site has been "pinch of salt" material for quite a while.
We are relatively tropical down here in Kerry. Have had no severe frost in 5 days and have no ice on the roads. Raining now, wayyyy too warm for snow at the moment. Hopefully when the cold easterly kicks in, it will negate the warming effect of the sea
Is there any snow cover on the high ranges there?
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Ireland Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Magadan
It's just you poor coastal dwellers. I'm 30 miles inland and it's still well below.
And I should add, it's still snowing lightly here and accumulating.