NL

SKEW-T: A LOOK AT CAPE METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY 1. What is CAPE? CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is the integration of the positive area on a Skew-T sounding. The positive area is that region where the theoretical parcel temperature is warmer than the actual temperature at each pressure level in the troposphere. The theoretical parcel temperature is the lapse rate(s) a parcel would take if raised from the lower PBL. 2. How is CAPE determined? The positive area on a sounding is proportional to the amount of CAPE. The higher the positive area, the higher the CAPE. The positive area is that area where the parcel sounding is to the right (warmer) than the environmental sounding. The units of CAPE are Joules per kilogram (energy per unit mass). The sounding at the bottom of this page shows a CAPE value of 2,032 Joules per kilogram. 3. Operational significance of CAPE: CAPE 1 - 1,500 Positive 1,500 - 2,500 Large 2,500+ Extreme High CAPE means storms will build vertically very quickly. The updraft speed depends on the CAPE environment. Hail: As CAPE increases (especially above 2,500 J/kg) the hail potential increases. Large hail requires very large CAPE values. Downdraft: An intense updraft often produces an intense downdraft since an intense updraft will condense out a large amount of moisture. Expect isolated regions of very heavy rain when storms form in a large or extreme CAPE environment. Lightning: Large and extreme CAPE will produce storms with abundant lightning. 4. Pitfalls: a. Storms will only form and the CAPE actualized if the low level capping inversion is broken. b. CAPE magnitude can rise or fall very rapidly across time and space.

Truly amazing lightning shots there Ozzie...Bet the thunder was something else too!

Tornado vortex south west of Austin... Hopefully the lads have raced south from Brownwood to catch this storm

Storm passing from Brady into Mason county ..Hail 3" tops at 45000ft VIL at 71kg/m2

Wetterzentrale still going for severe storm activity for the 10th.. i remember Paul commenting on this before he left Blighty's shores so looking very promising indeed!...

I remember hearing a world war II pilot jumped from his damaged plane during a thunderstorm and was said to have been suspended in the cloud for almost an hour.. needless to say he froze to death!!

Evening/ Afternoon Roger.. U say the lads should head up north to Hill City Kansas for monday.. just that ive been lookin at the charts on wetterzentale and they predict just a weak affair moving through with moderate rain nothing significant..

Tornado watch issued... Well out of the way of the boys.... Expires 5:00 PM CDT on May 06, 2006 urgent - immediate broadcast requested Tornado Watch number 300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 am CDT Sat may 6 2006 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of southern Louisiana southeastern Mississippi coastal waters Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1125 am until 500 PM CDT. Tornadoes... hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas. The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of LaFayette Louisiana to 50 miles southeast of Gulfport Mississippi. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou0). Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Discussion... squall line is expected to continue ewd through srn la and extreme srn MS. Other storms may develop ahead of the squall line as the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Vertical shear profiles are supportive of organized storm structures including Bow echoes and supercells. The stronger storms will pose a threat for damaging wind... large hail and possibly isolated tornadoes. Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

Heavy rain 12oc Humidity 88% wind SSE 11mph

I stand corrected TEITS... But i think the record still stands at 28 for a single state in 24hrs... but correct me on this if i'm wrong again...

The 28 tornadoes that occurred in Ohio on Sunday, July 12, 1992, went into the record books as the most recorded in a single day. They also contributed to the July 1992 record of 44 tornadoes in one month and a record annual total of 61 tornadoes. Fortunately, summer tornadoes tend to be weaker than spring storms and none of the 44 tornadoes during July 1992 were violent. This contributed to the absence of fatalities and only 36 injuries from the record number of tornadoes.

Todays forecast........ Tomorrows forecast..........

May 4, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu May 4 05:58:17 UTC 2006 (Print Version) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006). Categorical | Tornado (more info) | Hail (more info) | Wind (more info) Forecast Discussion SPC AC 040554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE THAT BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...AND EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/EAST CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE IN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EVENTUALLY...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN WEAK...BETWEEN CONFLUENT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTING SOUTHWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OUT OF CANADA TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BECOME GENERALLY CONFINED TO THIS REGION. FRONT WILL JUST BE ADVANCING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ASSORTMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...ARKLATEX THRU NRN GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA CONCERNING DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...AND FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STORMS. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID DAY AS HEATING ERODES RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION. THOUGH SHEAR/FLOW WILL BE WEAK...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NORTHERN TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE...AND SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST TEXAS...ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW ACTIVITY. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY ACTIVITY WANES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPULSE/JET STREAK. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE CAPE TO VALUES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT FORCING ON TAIL END OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK/ PENNSYLVANIA. THOUGH UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE WEAK...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE MEAN FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP WESTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. ...GREAT BASIN... FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH INTO WEST CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR/GRAMS.. 05/04/2006

Yeah... have a safe trip... Hope the season carries on the way its started!!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO SRN IL... ...TX PANHANDLE TO WRN IL... LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO IL WED AS STRONGER FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE NRN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MN. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING FROM THE SWRN U.S. WITHIN THE WEAKER FLOW TOWARDS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...MO TO IL... EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG SFC FRONT ACROSS KS INTO SRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE SEWD INTO SERN MO/WRN IL WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR RENEWED UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION. INITIALLY...SFC DEW POINTS ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THIS REGION BUT WITH TIME SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS MO BEFORE SPREADING INTO SRN IL AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE-FREE UNTIL MID DAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL AID UPDRAFT VIGOR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SRN PLAINS... UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TUE NIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME A GREAT DEAL OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS TX INTO SERN OK. THE DEGREE OF DISRUPTION ON MOISTURE FIELD WILL NOT BE EVIDENT UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW 60S DEW POINTS TO RETURN ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ALTHOUGH SFC WIND SHIFT WILL SURGE INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NEWD INTO CNTRL OK STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND REMOVING ALL BUT NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION BY MID AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FLATTEN BY 00Z AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ADVECTS TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO OK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BASED ON ABOVE MOISTURE SCENARIO...WILL YIELD 3000 J/KG CAPE WITHIN SHEARED PROFILES THAT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE CLUSTERING FORCES ONE OR MORE MCS'S TO EVOLVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ REMAINS FOCUSED...IMPINGING ON THE LARGE SCALE FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER REGION ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 05/03/2006

AT A GLANCE There have been 591 tornadoes in the United States since Jan. 1. MONTHLY TOTALS* January: 45 February: 15 March: 226 April: 305 * Based on the Preliminary Tornado Report through April 27 from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. SOURCE: www.spc.noaa.gov

I'm sure they'll get their chance... Lookin good for this and next week.

Just small at the moment.. Dont know if they'll develop further but are getting pushed east.. But i do see the storms North east Springfield into Rolla County.. Expires 7:45 PM EDT on May 01, 2006 Statement as of 5:54 PM CDT on May 01, 2006 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... northwestern Peoria County in central Illinois Stark County in north central Illinois eastern Knox County in west central Illinois * until 645 PM CDT * at 554 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a tornado near Williamsfield... or about 19 miles east of Galesburg... moving northeast at 15 mph. * Locations impacted include... West Jersey... Duncan... Toulon... Wyoming... Castleton... Bradford... Lombardville... Other locations in the warning include... Elmore.

Storms now startin to develop 40mls south east Tulsa.

If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands............ Dont know about that like...better chance if u clicked ya heels and thought of home!!!

Expires 5:30 PM EDT on April 30, 2006 Statement as of 3:51 PM CDT on April 30, 2006 The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... southeastern Bond County in south central Illinois southwestern Fayette County in south central Illinois * until 430 PM CDT * at 348 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm with strong rotation over Tamalco... moving northeast at 20 mph. * Locations impacted include... Mulberry Grove... Shobonier... Vandalia... The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and always stay away from windows. If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Best wishes for a safe and storm filled chase!! ( Remember if u get caught just click ya heels 3 times and think of home!!) Well it worked for Dorothy!!

Looks like a bumpy ride for Oklahoma, Texas today with more storms predicted.

So really it looks like the peak(low activity) may have passed..????

Actually suprised that there is any significant sun spots at all since the sun is at its peak of low activity..