sub zero

That's ridiculous, there are no piranhas in the sea....

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°

The start vortex is on the ropes after a string of warmings on the latest gfs op run and ends up like this at 384.. I've always thought that the trop vortex doesn't really follow the strat following a warming, but when looking at the charts it seems it does in this case .. With the lack of excitement, I'm guessing there has to be a displacement or a split for us to benefit from a cold point of view, but in this case we have neither, just a shrinkage.. But with the strat vortex in scraps after the warming bombardments, is it no help to us at all to bring in the cold...?

Perb 11 maybe...?

It was more what happened after that, the country went into the freezer and got buried in snow for the rest of winter...!

I was a little disappointed with the amount we have in Notts.. until I came on here and now I feel greedy...! been snowing all morning lightly with patchy moderate bursts, and we have a huge 30mm...

Check out the next 10 days from the gfs. Really is turning into a historic spell , just need those snow totals to go up....

Try rain alarm, much better . Even gives notification when precipitation is on the way, but doesn't give precipitation type....

South pennines, yorkshire moors, Thames estuary, wash, humber, east Coast of Ireland are hot spots for heavy dumpings... Everywhere else very good too especially further east, and caught in a streamer.. The only exception is Middlesborough which historicity get nothing...!

The river trent now at its peak through Notts.. Very lucky we didn't get the rain that was forecast further east, otherwise could have been very nasty.. here's a video I took earlier as the river breached locally... 20210122_073552.mp4

Really surprised that no one has mentioned the blizzard showing across most of the country at 108, if this was to come off... WOW....

For the Greenland high to produce very cold for us, we need a much stronger high, ie yellows and oranges (as seen on meteociel) pushing the lows coming from North America on a more southerly route, and our trough deeper into the med.. So far this hasn't really been an option of late on the outputs, greens into Greenland are OK but frought with the danger of west based -NAO and lows coming at us head on and phasing rather than cutting under us, unless we can keep the waa going up into Greenland and cutting off the Atlantic ,which is difficult to maintain without a strong Greenland high, its always going to be touch and go for cold but chances of heavy snowfall are good for anywhere.. There is still a chance the GH can produce very cold and keep waa going, as 27% of ECM ensembles at day 10 suggest ,and also the GFS depending on which suite you view say roughly the same but seem higher on the 12z and 18z for some reason..?? As things stand, its looking good for cold and snow /rain anywhere next week ,maybe even the SE, and 25% chance of very cold, so not too shabby for coldies. Going forward ,I would say keep the faith if your a coldie , just had a major SSW and another minor warming which looks to split the already displaced strat vortex, so a reshuffle of the atmosphere looks imminent, and hopefully with a little luck we get high pressure to the N/NE which gives us a much better chance for a memorable cold spell to finish winter... I would say 40% change of something severe by the end of winter which is much better than the 5% we normally get..... Keep the faith coldies..

Still snowing here in the trent valley ,but on the wet side.. No more accumulation, and turning to slush on the ground..

intensity seems to be waning on the front now, hopefully not a trend.. light snow now here in Notts after an hour or so of moderate snow..

Been snowing moderately now for half an hour in notts, everything turning white.. Temp 0.5 and dropping.. Must say, I wasn't expecting it to be this good at 20m above sea level..?

More snowy than sleety now here in notts. The snow will settle on even wet ground, if temps are 1 degree . So hoping for at least a covering here in the snow starved trent valley ....!

I really don't see a prolonged very cold spell from the chats atm, yes I see a snowy spell with maybe some severe temperatures at times lasting a week maybe 10 days from these charts, which in itself is amazing to see and has me glued to this forum and meteociel.. But the only chance we get of seriously cold uppers, is from channel lows passing under the block and giving us a brief easterly, the rest of the time the general wind direction is a northerly , which will be cold enough for snow but not severe, as too long a sea track... It seems there is only one outcome (as far as I can see) as the cold pool makes its way towards us then floods into the Atlantic, ruining the amega block by cutting off the waa into Greenland and giving us a west based NAO.. I don't see how we can get long sustained cold unless we can get heights over Iceland or scandy giving us more of an easterly feed... Are there many times when the trough stays out to the east (with no heights to the north or east) staying put and delivering cold for the uk for long periods, or do we need to see height rises to the north/east...? an unusual set up and intriguing to say the least.. Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to put a dampner on things , I just want to put things in perspective.. I'm a coldie through and through .. honest...!

Pepping up again here in se Nottingham , about 7cm here now from the wash streamer...

The rain alarm app on android is very good..

That steamer just hitting Nottingham ,and it's coming down nicely.. could do well from this, but marginal at minus 4.5c ️️???

Basically yes.. read the first post on page one of the strat thread, it's a good read and will hopefully enlighten ..

They didn't really show the Atlantic winning out, more of a very slow encroachment .. That's totally along the lines of the ukmo, as this 144 chart illustrates.. But there are definate possibilities of a beasterly from there...!

11,000 + Greenland high, doesn't get any better than that...! ???????

Best chart I've seen all winter at day 10 on the ECM in terms of Potential. But as ever chasing dreams in FI, it does seem to be the way of things this winter. Lets hope this time they have it right, heights building North atlantic, lows running through the azores, and an easterly flow from Europe to America. Or have they got it wrong and that high just keeps bobbing around southern Britain like it has done all winter, I know where my money would be...

The ensembles this morning look fantastic for cold, with the op being the main outlier. This seems to me has been the case since the upgrade,with the op being on the mild side of things (generally).. Don't loose faith coldies, expect the op to be dragged kicking and screaming into line with the rest over the next few days.. To me things look very positive for the cold to stay, with a good chance of very cold..