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sub zero

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Posts posted by sub zero

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 22/04/2023 at 10:12, SunSean said:

    That GFS chart is about as enjoyable as running into a brick wall, knocking all your teeth out and then tripping over and catching your hair on barbed wire, in turn, pulling it all out and then getting back up, only to slip over and break both your arms and legs, ending up in a wheelchair and then rolling downhill off the edge of the Dover cliffs into the sea below, only to land on a swarm of box jellyfish and then get eaten slowly by a school of piranhas. Putrid....utterly putrid.

    That's ridiculous, there are no piranhas in the sea....😂

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The start vortex is on the ropes after a string of warmings on the latest gfs op run and ends up like this at 384..Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram                       I've always thought that the trop vortex doesn't really follow the strat following a warming, but when looking at the charts it seems it does in this case ..

    With the lack of excitement, I'm guessing there has to be a displacement or a split for us to benefit from a cold point of view, but in this case we have neither, just a shrinkage..

    But with the strat vortex in scraps after the warming bombardments, is it no help to us at all to bring in the cold...?

     

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by sub zero

    44 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

    Just a general question on potential BFTE next month - do we know which areas/regions this would favour based on models? 

    South pennines, yorkshire moors, Thames estuary, wash, humber, east Coast of Ireland are hot spots for heavy dumpings...

    Everywhere else very good too especially further east, and caught in a streamer..

    The only exception is Middlesborough which historicity get nothing...!

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    For the Greenland high to produce very cold for us, we need a much stronger high, ie yellows and oranges (as seen on meteociel) pushing the lows coming from North America  on a more southerly route, and our trough deeper into the med..

    So far this hasn't really been an option of late on the outputs, greens into Greenland are OK but frought with the danger of west based -NAO and lows coming at us head on and phasing rather than cutting under us, unless we can keep the waa going up into Greenland and cutting off the Atlantic  ,which is difficult to maintain without a strong Greenland high, its always going to be touch and go for cold but chances of heavy snowfall are good for anywhere..

    There is still a chance the GH can produce very cold and keep waa going, as 27% of ECM ensembles at day 10 suggest ,and also the GFS depending on which suite you view say roughly the same but seem higher on the 12z and 18z for some reason..??

    As things stand, its looking good for cold and snow /rain anywhere next week ,maybe even the SE, and 25% chance of very cold, so not too shabby for coldies.

    Going forward ,I would say keep the faith if your a coldie , just had a major SSW and another minor warming which looks to split the already displaced strat vortex, so a reshuffle of the atmosphere looks imminent, and hopefully with a little luck we get high pressure to the N/NE which gives us a much better chance for a memorable cold spell to finish winter...

    I would say 40% change of something severe by the end of winter which is much better than the 5% we normally get.....

    Keep the faith coldies..

     

     

     

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I really don't see a prolonged very cold spell from the chats atm, yes I see a snowy spell with maybe some severe temperatures at times lasting a week maybe 10 days from these charts, which in itself is amazing to see and has me glued to this forum and meteociel..

    But the only chance we get of seriously cold uppers, is from channel lows passing under the block and giving us a brief easterly, the rest of the time the general wind direction is a northerly , which will be cold enough for snow but not severe, as too long a sea track...

    It seems there is only one outcome (as far as I can see) as the cold pool makes its way towards us then floods into the Atlantic, ruining the amega block by cutting off the waa into Greenland and giving us a west based NAO..

    I don't see how we can get long sustained cold unless we can get heights over Iceland or scandy giving us more of an easterly feed...

    Are there many times when the trough stays out to the east (with no heights to the north or east) staying put and delivering  cold for the uk for long periods, or do we need to see height rises to the north/east...?

    an unusual set up and intriguing to say the least..

    Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to put a dampner on things , I just want to put things in perspective..

    I'm a coldie through and through .. honest...!

     

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

    A real novice here. Am I right in my assumption that a warming in the strat means more pressure on the vortex which means more chance of cold blocking? Or have I got this totally wrong? 

    Basically yes..

    read the first post on page one of the strat thread, it's a good read and will hopefully enlighten ..

    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

    Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

    Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

    They didn't really show the Atlantic winning out, more of a very slow encroachment ..

    That's totally along the lines of the ukmo, as this 144 chart illustrates..

    But there are definate possibilities of a beasterly from there...!  

    image.thumb.gif.0f8e69f811cf36142ac686757c672a0e.gif

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Best chart I've seen all winter at day 10 on the ECM in terms of Potential.

    But as ever chasing dreams in FI, it does seem to be the way of things this winter.

    Lets hope this time they have it right, heights building North atlantic, lows running through the azores, and an easterly flow from Europe to America. 

    Or have they got it wrong and that high just keeps bobbing around southern Britain like it has done all winter, I know where my money would be...

     

     

    image.jpg

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The ensembles this morning look fantastic for cold, with the op being the main outlier.

    This seems to me has been the case since the upgrade,with the op being on the mild side of things (generally)..

    Don't loose faith coldies, expect the op to be dragged kicking and screaming into line with the rest over the next few days..

    To me things look very positive for the cold to stay, with a good chance of very cold..

    • Like 3
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