wellington boot
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Posts posted by wellington boot
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2 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:
It’s really hard to predict this stuff. The whole lot is surface generated from wind and water-air temp differential. Shame that the winds will shift more Eastward early evening or we could have had some serious accumulations in parts of the SE.
Yes this won't help. The best case scenario is that a) we squeeze a few more hours of decent showers from the current set up, and there is still some formation and building in places so some at least might get lucky with this, then b) that we get some parallel shower streams on the easterly breeze later. Have seen that before even down here away from London, and every little helps...
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We're going through our last 15 min yellow blob for now, and now that everything is covered it's all accumulating and things are looking increasingly snow drenched.
Frustrating gaps and lack of intensity after this looking at the radar, however. High pressure / lack of real instability is the problem. It just goes to show how quickly you can have a serious fall though with a good shower stream. We've been blanketed within a couple of hours of decent showers, whereas some of the best events in the past 15 years have seen a day or more of showers packing in.
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Just popped out on errands here in the snow capital of the high weald. Snow settling the main roads currently, lanes now covered, all is white, and we are officially living in a winter wonderland.
Looks like we have a good half hour of decent to good shower activity lined up, but nothing behind really looks like it matches the showers this region has had over the past couple of hours. Would be a shame if it doesn't keep up till evening, as this could turn into a real event.
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After 4-6 hours of wasted snow, the big showers have arrived and we've been in a little streamer for the past 10-15 mins. Rapidly turned grass and greenery mostly white, but lane and paths settling very patchily at best.
Need the showers to pack in and temps/dew points to drop for this to become a more significant fall.
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3 minutes ago, TomB said:
Why do they run it if it’s rubbish?
It's not rubbish. I haven't seen stats recently, not historically it verifies better than at least one of the other GFS runs. In sure there was a year where it was top.
It just has a reputation... It is possible that for some reason it tends to emphasise certain setups popular with members on here, but even if so, and even if those don't come off more often than not, that alone doesn't make it worse than the other versions.
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How seriously do we we take this amber warning? Clearly it mentions threat to life from flying debris, which is different from a yellow warning.
Question is how strongly i advise pregnant wife not to go into work in Tunbridge Wells area. I could also drive her myself. Has anyone been out on roads or heard reports in this area?
Obviously the further NW you go the lesser the intensity, and we're further South. Just looking out of the window at the trees all around it looks pretty wild, but we're quite sheltered from S/SW winds so difficult to know how it will look out there.
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Winds here have increased dramatically in the past couple of hours, and we're 15-20 miles inland. The noises are quite alarming at times.
A key factor is being surrounded by large trees mostly in leaf. A couple of gusts so far have persisted for a good 30 seconds and the growing roar is quite something.
Looking at the charts, you'd expect another 12 hours of similar conditions and a significant peak around 6-7am. That said, most forecasts indicate a relatively modest increase on what we have now at that point.
Either way, this level of wind for such a long period is highly likely to bring down trees, block roads, disrupt trains.
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2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Because the centre will track very close to London, if it tracked North of London then you would get the higher winds
I think just being inland is very significant. We're South of Tunbridge Wells on a hill, less than 20 miles from the coast, and the models in the last couple of days have shown 60-90mph gusts.
But the MO says 30mph wind with 50mph gusts, which is distinctly unexceptional. Their forecast presumably involves more nuance, topographical elements, and human input, so it's the one to trust, but looking at models and maps it's hard to believe it could be so mild.
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A good resource or explanation on sting jets would be welcome, since it seems an interesting (and potentially consequential) phenomenon.
I trust @Tamara absolutely, and someone else on here was also adamant that this is the wrong type of low. However, the explanation for this indicated that a sting jet low involves a separate leading cold front, with a warm front behind, maybe a wrap around occluded front also? In any case, I compared the front layout on the 1987 FAX with today's FAX, and they are remarkably similar. Both have a warm then cold then wrap around occluded front. Similar low position, similar trajectory, etc. Would love to understand the distinction better.
Regarding French contributors who can apparently see a sting jet forming already, i think that would be a relief -storm is still way out West and they only last a few hours so would be done by landfall...
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Just now, Sidsnake said:
Yep, snow starting here... Tunbridge Wells
Yes snowing in Wadhurst also. Very fine but more than drizzle.
Interesting that BBC (based on ECM) has a couple of hours of snow here later in afternoon. Not sure I believe it, but I suppose it might be picking up on the potential for showers off the channel. The activity now has some streamer characteristics, even if the current two are drifting West unfortunately...
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7 minutes ago, Lauren said:
Can already hear it dripping and thawing out there.
Really?! Maybe it's just a medway thing, although your altitude is good. We're only 25m higher than you here in the weald, and it's icy and silent.
Final tally here is towards 4 inches. Will have better idea tomorrow. One car had 3 inches, the other 4...
Drove a few miles East towards lamberhurst on a rescue mission and everything is just blanketed. Looked like they had 6 inches in places.
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41 minutes ago, leemondo said:
Surely it won't come back this way again?
I don't think so. Between them the models had this pretty much nailed, and all we could get is a sprinkle as the tail over the channel gets sucked back NW'wards and dissipates.
Wouldn't expect much though, if anything. Nothing shows it hanging together and dropping anything meaningful as it goes...
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Just now, IanT said:
Not sure I remember that forecast!
It was just on the met office website this morning when i looked at my village. Had the two snow flake symbol from 6pm - midnight, plus a couple of hours of light snow before and after.
I'm sure they didn't specify that on any live broadcast!
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1 minute ago, snowrye said:
Is that it for my location, or is this going to pivot back
Think that's probably it. There's a band to the SE that might clear NW if I'm reading some of those models correctly and if they're correct... And worth keeping an eye on things... But i think we're largely done down here.
No complaints, albeit it's just a touch disappointing when a long evening and night of snow ends six hours early...
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Anyone on here around Cranbrook, or Staplehurst or Maidstone? Looks like they had hours of red echoes. Wondering if someone around there or maybe on the north downs is in the sweet spot and might have got up towards 6 inches?
We've been done for a while here. Unfortunately not the 6 hours of heavy snow forecasted by the MO, but we're past 3 inches so i cant really complain.
Maybe we'll all get a final bonus sprinkle as that last narrow band clears NW.
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Quite shocked at what we have had here. A few days ago it looked like a sprinkling and confined to East Kent, then going into today I optimistically expected we could get a couple of cms. After three hours of steady snow, we now have at least 2.5 inches. It helps when it settles on everything immediately...
We are getting a bit close to the back edge now and no longer in the bullseye, but obviously i want more... And if we're lucky and the stuff to the south moves north without drifting too much further East, hopefully we can sneak a few more hours...
A few photos from the last couple of hours:
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I think almost 2 inches here in Wadhurst. Amazing. No complaints at this point, but let's hope it keeps going!
I think almost 2 inches here in Wadhurst. Amazing. No complaints at this point, but let's hope it keeps going
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6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Yep but the pivot zone isn't far from N London, fingers crossed!
Would take that, as would mean 8-10cms. Unlike earlier models though, which seemed a bit scanty with the extent of the band, I now wonder if the main swathe might be a bit tighter than what's shown there.
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1 minute ago, Darkcloud said:
Snowing heavily at Bodle Street now (my parents) grass and Lane covered. Driving home could be interesting...
Looking at the radar my concern is that there doesn't seem much more incoming from the channel?
Snowing heavily here in Wadhurst and more to come. Everything is white and accumulating, so good news.
Concern for this location specifically is that certain models are looking really accurate and while it it is pivoting, the energy is moving East more than I'd like. We're under heavy stuff now, but the bulk could definitely end up a bit too far east and skim narrowly past us. Met office has heavy snow symbols for us till midnight, and I'd love that to come true, but I'm a little dubious.
Hopefully we can hang on to light snow at least. Otherwise, parts of mid Kent are looking very promising.
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5 minutes ago, snowrye said:
My mate has confirmed it's snowing at sea level, right on the coast, yet I'm 10 miles inland, and 200ft asl, yet it's rain, you couldn't make it up. Ha ha
May be good news - wasn't really expecting a much colder airmass to follow, but that sounds as if it may just be a narrow warmer slice before it turns back to snow, especially with night falling.
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23 minutes ago, TN9 said:
oi oi ...i rememeber this happening before lol ..how is you ?
Ha me too... I'm fine... But aggravated at the possibility that we miss out narrowly on the real deal!
Still snowing and settling everywhere, which is good, but if this main band is the most we get, we need it to stay all snow...
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Snowing steadily in Wadhurst. Concerned to hear of sleet and rain in Heathfield and Robertsbridge.
It's arrived an hour or two early unfortunately and may not last through the evening as hoped. Not sure whether the air mass is going to get any warmer also, even if night falling should help a bit.
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3 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:
I'm in Tunbridge Wells... Becoming overcast here but nowt yet
Looks like it's getting close to us.
Problem is that up to now, the Arome is probably looking the most accurate ppn model, but it has the band clearing us by 6pm ish. Others such as the Arpege have a long evening of snow ahead for us...
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Just now, Biggin said:
Netweather Radar Showing the channel low moving east and north. East I can understand but I thought the action for the sE was later and from the east.
Netweather Extra
WWW.NETWEATHER.TVLook at the models and you'll see they kind of project it to pile up offshore through the afternoon before it moves inland. Arpege, UKV, and others seem to have it close to perfect so far, except it's a bit bigger and messier in real life, which is hopefully good news for those like me on the fringes of the hotspots.
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Occasionally you'll get the showers dying out as the steering changes and winds switch round, before they pep up again when the new flow is established.
But I doubt it this time. Drivers moving against us, air drying out, and the die off is fairly dramatic and covers the whole sector at this point.