wellington boot

Its not tiresome. People are just enjoying themselves. It's exciting for us, to have the possibility of such a great snow event so close. By the way, has anyone thought of what the fallout would be like if everything, or most of it at least, turned out as rain rather than snow. And no one at any point got really good snow. The talk of even larger teapot, days of snow being over, global warming, would go into overdrive...

Im liking the southward trend. Lets just have all the ppn arrive at nbight time and stall over me

Your 200m asl is pretty handy though... And im only 25 odd miles north of the M4. Getting tense...

I know its the best ive seen that close too, we're in agreement (just in case you didn't say that because you thought i didn't see it!) yes you're right - just more evidence of the s***ness of the bbc five day forecasts

Out there i think the only person it's bothering is a lone man in a rowing boat...

Wont you look at that. Either side of the 0 degrees!! and other interesting bbc forecasts, for those who enjoy looking at the bbc ramping snow for once, even if their little five day forecasts are useless, nottingham has two days of heavy snow forecast, while bristol even gets heavy sbnow on thursday, despite having temps no lower than 4 degrees... Just to acknowledge the uselessness of the bbc though, dublin has no ppn til saturday, amazing given that a huge swathe of ppn, be it rain or snow, passes directly over them thursday.

Yes you're right, that chart has huge potential. As you say, with surface winds close to east south east, and pressure sub 1000 mb for many, we could see plenty of hefty of showers all over the place, not to mention the possible frontal event. On a different note, the bbc has finally decided to give me heavy snow for thursday, Hooray!, though only light rain and sleet for friday and sat. But you know, its the worst forecast we have, so itll prob be wrong about friday and saturday....

well ive been marking my location on subsequent runs of the gfs to see where exactly i fall on the temp and ppn charts. This latest one, its still all coming in fractionally too slowly for my liking. I wish it would arrive just a bit earlier in the night. Though having said that the gorund temps up to midday at least look better again, and probably enough for snow, as far south as the M4 pretty much. Further north, the temps look favourable enough for the midlands if the ppn can actually push that far; Also, just to point out, the 850s show some nice reintroduction of -5s after that low passes through. If they could travke a bit further, then a later event would start to look better and better. 850s

Dont worry about it. ppn will definately make it. Just depends when and where and what kind. So not too much we don't know then... As for GEM, don't get carried away with it - it may well have spotted a general trend, but much of it is FI, and it's not a great model anyway. And ignore its ppn charts completely yes i should think you might be able to. :o

tamara your a step behind me both times im afraid...

Well i hope it will start well before 6am, as every other run seems to suggest. But even with this chart, theres a clear area of 5-10mm (which i am very close to, if not quite in), and that is by 6am, so for places which are favoured, there could be a good few inches.

its up at the top, where it says GEM. You click on the numbers in the serparate box. If that doesnt work, just try wetterzentrale, and click top karten on the left hand side, then use the box at top left to click on GEm and so on

With regards this thursday, im holding my breath now. Because im basically right in the middle of the highest risk/highest gain zone, if you know what i mean. I should be in the firing line of the heaviest ppn to hit anywhere, the darker blue, 10-15 stuff, but when it hits is crucial. Temps look like they should be low enough here through the night into morning, but once it gets into the daytime, everything gets highly risky. So when is that ppn going to get here. It changes by 6 hours every run, yoyoing every way. I feel fairly sure ill see something white at some point, but whether its for 10 minutes, or 10 hours is another matter, as is the question of whether it sticks. This is genuinely a situation where all you can do is sit and look at the radar and out of the window. No model can give me the answer for sure

The Gem chart at 240 is a beaut. Its a shame it doesn also give us the 850s or the ppn, because after a week of an easterly, arctic sourced flow, with -10s near us in the first place, that one would be a cold chart. And pressures low too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif Ah if only... Oh and furthermore, you know what GEM is actually giving us out past 200. That's right, that-which-must-not-be-named, (hushed voice), the omega block. Look at the high splitting, suggesting a switch from easterly to northerly http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif Now to see that even in FI is a rare experience, and one to be cherished.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgemeur.html

Hi steve good to have you back on board the netweather ship! Very interesting post - most illuminating, and for me, encouraging. Here in Oxford, Im pretty much bang in the middle of your danger zone, or perhaps the southern half of it. At a good 20-30 miles north of the M4, im hoping that ppn will hit us hard and will be snow. Post thursday, things are looking good too, so plenty of potential for all in this setup.

Its looking as good as it can really for me here in oxford. Im literally along the line of highest risk/highest gain. It looks on all the ppn charts as if surface temps at least are never above 1 or 2 during all the spells of ppn, sometimes zero minus 1, while were also south enough to get the heaviest ppn falling. could be a complete damp squib, or a major snow dumping, or somewhere in between. Most interesting chart at 102, with this for ppn: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1024.png some really heavy stuff there, but with 2m temps of 2-3 degrees, its a bit dodgy: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png though evaporational cooling with that kind of heavy ppn could easily lower the temp enough for snow. anyway, specifics that far out are pointless i know. But fun to look at. More likely for snow is the 48-60 window in which temps certainly look low enough down here, but ppn stalls a bit this run so comes in later and weaker, rather than heavier and in the night. well see though. From your point of view pp, and others up north/north east, youll surely get some snow showers off the north sea over the next few days, and as the easterly draw bites. Witha bit of luck you could see some decent snow. out at 180, the whole setup is very different. heights look much more positive generally, with potential, if the high to the north could dig in a vbit more, for some easterly winds and a succession of cold lows. Looking a bit far ahead me thinks though...

I agree with everything you say teits, except for the bit about the bbc. To be honest, the bbc is wrong all the time, but it always seems as if theyve just thrown all the symbols up in the air and seen where they land on the UK (ok maybe not that bad). To be honest though, its often hard to tell whihc model the bbc is forecasting from. By the way, i am as of now a member of net weather extra. have been having fun tinkering with the radar.

Check out the satellite image. It's a sobering experience, like the calm before the storm. You can see the enormous mass of ppn and cloud out in the atlantic, ready and waiting for us to call it in . That's where it's coming from. where the answers lie... http://www.netweather.tv/pages/charts/noaa...02052146-no.jpg for subscribing to netweather extra (i think i will subscribe to extra lite), it asks for a username. Do i choose whatever i want?

i want to get netweather extra on a short subscription, just to see us through to the end of winter, because right now my finances dont support a full 70 quid subscription. What should i get? radar only comes as a 12 month package so im wondering whether the one month netweather extra lite package, costing 6.49 has radar. And what else it has? do you mean very uncanny

The fax is all over the place. Some of them are sans serif, some of them have serifs. Both 72 and 84 refer to 12 oclock on thursday, just as both 96 and 108 refer to friday. I think it is 84 and 108 which are missing.

Hooray im right in the middle of the darkest purple square!!

You just dont get it guitarnutter. We enjoy analysing the charts far out. We are aware of their innaccuracies. We enjoy looking at them all the same. You dont need to be concerned about us being disappointed. We understand how watching the models goes. The discussion of the models is a hobby for many of us

Hmm useful - im bang on the front line, perhaps a bit north of it!

yes it could be yeti! By the way, when people regularly refer to this place going into meltdown, i think this is the beginning of what is meant. A constant stream of posts. Amazing charts just a couple of days away, with incessant posting of newly found incredible snow charts. A couple more runs showing the same stuff, or better, and this place will fully go into meltdown. Its hectic already, but it could get busier