[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Exciting for some but travel chaos for many and not great for the elderly with rising heating costs 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Those uppers are still conductive of snow even at sea level and temperatures will struggle above freezing 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

The models could Still all change alot to a less cold set up so won’t be a done deal until maybe Thursday 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

In 24 hours everything will change again on a major scale so don’t take this morning’s outputs to heart 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

The models will flip flop for a few days yet keep calm it’s the affects of the SSW they can’t handle it, but the easterly is coming it’s just a question of when not if 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

It may be milder by Tuesday yes and looks good on the models but it won't be spring like in realty it will be mostly cloudy with rain developing from the west / south west from Wednesday and hill fog too. 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

Shame the forecast is for plenty of cloud then 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

So from the lastest models the outlook is cold or very cold until Monday then perhaps less cold / milder then a cold reload from the north the following weekend 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

So no matter what the models are saying the met office outlook is still feeling very cold in east winds next week Perhaps some snow in the NE and in the far west becoming less cold by the 22nd but even late February in to march it's still Likely on the cold side , so they have a much better model look then we have. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Less cold? I would call 12-13c very mild IF the Gfs is correct. 

But it's still past the 5 day time range anything can happen with the models as they always do 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Most of the models show less cold air next week but it's past the 5 day timeframe and a cold reload is likely at some stage with the blocking to our north east and west . 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Let's enjoy the upcoming cold spell perhaps less cold next week but models will change a lot by then , also with that block in place I wouldn't be surprised we have a cold reload from the NE , winter is not over yet, also some cold nights if skies remain clear next week bringing surface temperatures down 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

24 minutes ago, igloo said:

im not sure matt mid febuary sun getting stronger +4 uppers daffs ready to push open first signs of spring is in the air still if its clear skies we will still get hard frosts during the night unless the models change again of course 

Plenty of hard frosts and fog keeping surface temperatures down 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

20 minutes ago, The PIT said:

GFS, UKMO and ECM singing from the same hyhm sheet so a short cold spell before temperatures recover to normal values next week. A case of blink and you'll miss it. Hopefully the models will change their mind in the next few days.

No models are just struggling with the block next week will remain cold at the surface you wait and see

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Very much agree with above posts let's concentrate on the next few days. The charts for next week will change a lot between now and Monday the block / cold is always hard to shift once it's in place. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Great set of models this morning a prolonged cold spell likely from Wednesday mostly dry but a few flurries. As the met office said yesterday a cold rest of February likely. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Latest tweet from met office 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

ECM is a outlier I'm certain and even if it's not that set up would bring very cold nights with frost and fog bringing down day temperatures if sky's are clear. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

ECM is almost certainly a outlier as most other models signal cold 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Why is there negativity you only have to read the met office further outlook and read what the experts like Ian f have put on twitter today, A cold spell is coming with some snow flurries better than mild and a  Fairly long cold block. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

so an interesting week coming up with cold air for most of us by later Wednesday. A lot of cloud with some snow showers along the east coast which may spread west at times and the models show a good chance of the blocked cold weather lasting for the rest of February not bad at all. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Another good set of charts this morning with cold air moving In from the east from Wednesday, models will struggle with the block but I think we have a better chance of an easterly this time. Some cold days some not as cold but a blocked pattern looks likely for some time. With any clear skies and light winds overnight we could be getting some very hard frosts. Perhaps some battle ground rain or snow in the far south west and west at times. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Borderline cold with the alantic winning I think will be the likely outcome 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

A west east battle ground with the west just about winning I think with any real cold and wintry precipitation confined to the Far East of the Uk later next week. 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

As I said yesterday we need caution on next weeks possible cold as we see in this mornings run most of the cold air stays east of the uk with mostly average temperatures occurring unless your on the east coast. Meanwhile it's wet and wild in the south west this morning a very unsettled weekend to come with deep lows