[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->]

Was forecasted for a couple days now light flurries or grains 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Everything will change again by this evening I can't see the block giving away that easy after such a fight , stop thinking winter is over by one set of morning runs. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

The charts are all over the place at the moment with the block still holding on in the south and east with a very cold day to come on Thursday nothing is set in stone so don't take this mornings run to heart and we haven't even had the ecm yet . 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

People keep going on about no cold spell in sight when here in the south we are in the coldest spell of weather for over 4 years with overnight lows of -9°c and daytime highs of 0°c to 5°c lower in freezing fog this week with the models showing this weather staying at least to Friday in the south 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Looking at the models Another cold dry week ahead for us in the south and east overnight frost and fog especially at first , milder and more unsettled in the far west and across Scotland Northern Ireland and NW Wales. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, shane303 said:

There are increasing signs seaside and even the BBC and met office long range are saying this is the likely outcome and they have better sources then us when it comes to model tools / information. 

 

13 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Why is it likely that WSW winds will be back in 6/10 days.

Have you got a crystal ball, because its more likely that you will have a better return from that than believing what the model;s are forecasting in 6/10 days, thats why its an interesting winter.

 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

There are increasing signs seaside and even the BBC and met office long range are saying this is the likely outcome and they have better sources then us when it comes to model tools / information. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Maybe a return to the Atlantic for a week will reset the models for February not going give up on winter yet, but at the same time I don't think people should go to much into the chance of a SSW happening, as we all should know it does not bring cold and blocked conditions it just increases the chance and as the last few weeks show that does not always go in our  favour as mainland Europe had the best bit of that now let's see what the 1200 GFS brings , let the update commence.  

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->]

Beautiful sunny skies here in south somerset no rain at all today the models certainly got it wrong today and the rainfall is much further east. Who knows what this week brings as the battle against mild west and European cold goes on. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Signs in the models that the Atlantic wants to come back last week of January mild sw winds and rain at times will be a change not waiting around for a possible SSW

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Another week with mainly below average temperatures with all models in agreement a wintry mix for most and some good snowfalls on high ground Why do people seem surprised at snow in March your more likely to get snow in March than any other month. 

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

no sign of anything wintery for most uk ,just stormy it seems ,

No a downward trend in temperature so don't agree with no sign of wintry. Snow likely in the north and even further south at times in the next 14 days or so also some overnight frosts. 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

People who are saying winter is over have not looked at the weather history of the U.K. Some real heavy snow storms have happened even in south uk in March and early April. Anyway the latest model outputs still show a very uncertain week next week with some very deep lows likely and some nasty traveling conditions even in the south.

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

With the jet stream heading south the severe gales/ storm risk comes with it not looking good especially Saturday onwards some named storms likely and affecting an higher amount of the U.K. Population. 

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

I think the main concern at this moment is the possible damaging winds on Sunday / Monday in the south. The cold is not important at the moment. 

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...]

1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Currently 3.4C though it still feels chilly. RH 85%, pressure 1015 and steady

6.8°c here in Somerset was 8.5°c early but yesterday morning it was -8.9 / outbreaks of rain currently. 

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...]

So were heading for a mild or very mild weekend in the west country  some brighter spells and some rain. But please don't  take the recent mild weather charts to heart because as we all know they will change again tomorrow. Im thinking February will see temps below average at times with some frost and some snow. Nothing exceptional but more seasonal and march too.