Jane Louise

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #065 ISSUED: 1230UTC TUESDAY 6TH DECEMBER 2011 (GJ) SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS: NORTHERN IRELAND WESTERN SCOTLAND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND NORTHERN ENGLAND NORTH WALES MIDLANDS EAST ANGLIA IN EFFECT FROM 1500UTC TUESDAY 6TH TO 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 7TH DECEMBER 2011 LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING UNDER A STRONG JET CROSSING SE'WD OVER NORTHERN SCOTLAND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSNOW...HAIL...LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTS DISCUSSION: THERE IS GOOD SHORT-RANGE MODEL CONFIDENCE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. A DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM NW OF SCOTLAND WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE WIND VEER AHEAD OF IT INTO WESTERN PARTS. UNDER A STRONG JET WITH TEMPS OF BELOW -30C AT 500MB ON IT'S NORTHERN SIDE, AN UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING WITHIN A STRONG OVERALL FLOW, DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM BELOW THE JET MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTING AND STRONG GUSTS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH NOT INDIVIDUALLY LARGE. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #065 ISSUED: 1230UTC TUESDAY 6TH DECEMBER 2011 (GJ) SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS: NORTHERN IRELAND WESTERN SCOTLAND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND NORTHERN ENGLAND NORTH WALES MIDLANDS EAST ANGLIA IN EFFECT FROM 1500UTC TUESDAY 6TH TO 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 7TH DECEMBER 2011 LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING UNDER A STRONG JET CROSSING SE'WD OVER NORTHERN SCOTLAND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSNOW...HAIL...LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTS DISCUSSION: THERE IS GOOD SHORT-RANGE MODEL CONFIDENCE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. A DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM NW OF SCOTLAND WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE WIND VEER AHEAD OF IT INTO WESTERN PARTS. UNDER A STRONG JET WITH TEMPS OF BELOW -30C AT 500MB ON IT'S NORTHERN SIDE, AN UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING WITHIN A STRONG OVERALL FLOW, DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM BELOW THE JET MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTING AND STRONG GUSTS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH NOT INDIVIDUALLY LARGE. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

I'd say the Cotswolds does well for snow every year! I'm living not far off from the Forest Of Dean, so I have my fingers crossed. My landlord has been chopping up loads of logs daily and only mentioned today that when it snows here it certainly snows! and told me to be prepared with plenty of wood for the log fire.

Thundersnow! That would make my whole 5 years without a storm worth it Lol. I am always optimistic mind, so I may still see something yet (wishful thinking) I think it's pretty good for snow up here where I've only just moved, I love snow but thundersnow would be amazing. :smiliz19: Who knows, I may be reporting in here this winter lol. :w00t:

Hi ya Liam300, A warm welcome to Netweather Could you please pop your location in your profile so we know where you're from. Thank you.

That'll be all year then :winky:

Wow, you lucky thing Dave! good pics.

Yes, here's looking to 2012! surely it's got to deliver( it's got to!) although I've been saying this for the past 5 years and still nothing. I'm wondering whether the Bristol channel is at fault for us lot up near bristol/Gloucestershire. Those wheelie bins should be banned on a storm day ! I don't know how many times the sound has fooled me into thinking I'm hearing thunder on a storm day.

Wow, :shok:batten down yer hatches Liam. Sounds a tad windy there!

Tonight and tomorrows forecast from UKASF and Estofex . Please click on links to see maps: Areas Affected: SLGT: N Isles, NW Scotland, S + W Ireland, SW Wales, SW England Synopsis: Upper trough becomes a cut-off low over N Isles early in the period, followed by a significant upper trough moving slowly eastwards from the Atlantic later. Two 'bouts' of significant convection exist. Discussion: Cold mid-levels (typically -35C at 500mb) atop relatively warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates during the first few hours of the forecast period as an upper trough migrates northeastwards over Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, becoming a cut-off low. Underneath said trough, significant convection will develop with ELTs potentially as low as -40C, capable of producing lightning and small hail. An overlap of >30kts LLS and >40kts DLS may promote the chance of some organised convection and perhaps a tornado/waterspout. Convective gusts >60kts are possible locally. As the upper trough/low moves gradually away towards the Norwegian Sea from daybreak onwards, attention then turn to the approaching sharp upper trough to the W of Ireland. During the midday and afternoon hours, as cold mid-levels overspread the area and steepen lapse rates, noteworthy convection will allow sharp showers with local thunder and lightning to develop, with ELTs down to -30C. It is worth noting, activity may be late starting. Such showers are then forecast to move eastwards across southern Ireland towards western Wales and SW England during the late afternoon and evening hours, and hence the reason for the SLGT risk here http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/143 Storm Forecast Valid: Thu 01 Dec 2011 06:00 to Fri 02 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC Issued: Wed 30 Nov 2011 11:20 Forecaster: GATZEN Denmark, north-western Germany, Benelux, northern France, southern UK As the mid-level trough starts to move south-eastward to the Iberian Peninsula, the intense trough axis will slow down over the British Isles during the period. Strong mid-level jet streaks are expected to spread north-eastwards ahead of the trough axis, leading to strong lift and vertical wind shear. Latest models indicate that this will be associated with frontal waves that travel across the area. Although plenty of low-level moisture will be advected northward ahead of the cold front, stable lapse rates will likely limit the potential of deep moist convection. Some storms may be possible at Thursday morning, but overall threat seems to be marginal. http://www.estofex.org/

Here's one from Torro, hope everyone stays safe. TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/020 A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 14:45GMT on Wednesday November 30 2011 Valid from/until: 14:45GMT - 04:00GMT on Wednesday November 30/Thursday December 1 2011 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: Eire N Ireland Scotland IoM N England N Wales THREATS Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; occasional CG lightning SYNOPSIS Strong south-westerly upper flow covers the British Isles at the moment with a sharp trough to the west. This will continue to sharpen as it approaches through tonight. Strong warm advection is occurring across western parts of the British Isles at the moment. A short-wave trough is currently moving NE across NW Eire towards Scotland. An embedded narrow line of convection with occasional sferics is across western Eire at present, and is likely to continue to move north-east. With very strong low-level shear in place, strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible. This evening and overnight, strong cold front will move quickly eastwards across the discussion area. Line convection may accompany this, and with continuing strong low-level shear, this too brings the risk of strong winds and isolated tornadoes. Intense winds gusting to around 80mph or so are expected tomorrow morning across the N Isles, although these are primarily driven by synoptic-scale processes as a deep area of low pressure moves through. Forecaster: RPK http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

After all this mild weather we've been having this Autumn, I must say that today here in Gloucestershire was a lot more exciting then of late! Quite a rough windy day was had and plenty of rain thrown in. The sky did look very thundery at one stage, very dark! but all that happened was a shower that passed over rather quickly as the winds eventually eased off around 3pm.

Starting to calm down here.. Small trees, trellis and bird feeding stations have all blown over in the garden. Plenty of strong winds and heavish rain today.

It's certainly rough out here in the open. very windy with heavy rain now!

Storm Forecast Valid: Tue 29 Nov 2011 06:00 to Wed 30 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 28 Nov 2011 21:48 Forecaster: KOROSEC A level 1 was issued for parts of UK mainly for strong to severe wind gusts and tornadoes. DISCUSSION ... parts of UK ... As the deep cyclone near Iceland moves further NE across the Norwegian sea, an associated strong cold front will be pushed across the British Isles. This setup is characterized by very strong jet streak, providing impressive vertical wind shear at all levels. Despite very limited instability signals on numerical models, strongly forced convection is becoming likely along the trailing cold front. The front will cross the level 1 area during the afternoon and early evening hours. As said, very strong shear will be in place, with above 30 m/s of deep layer shear and 20-25 m/s of LL shear, combined with strong 300-500 m^2/s^2 SR helicity. Expect a likelihood of a well-organized convective line with embedded mesocyclones along the cold front itself. Those storms should support severe wind gusts and possibly tornadoes as well, given the robust shear in place. A polar maritime airmass will overspread the area further north and support widespread low-topped convection. http://www.estofex.org/

No mention of thunderstorms, mind! ------------------------------------------------------------- SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #063 ISSUED: 1730UTC MONDAY 28TH NOVEMBER 2011 (GJ/SM) SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS: ALL AREAS UK IN EFFECT FROM 0300UTC UNTIL 2359UTC TUESDAY 29TH NOVEMBER 2011 ACTIVE COLD FRONT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FRONTAL VORTICES...T1/2 TORNADOES...FLASH FLOODING DISCUSSION: THERE IS MODERATE MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE ENTIRE UK EASTWARD FROM EARLY MORNING, AFFECTING MOST PARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH A SLACK WIND FLOW BEHIND, THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 50KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SPLIT, WITH THE UPPER SECTION COOLING THE MID LEVELS OVER THE SURFACE FRONT, GIVING RISE TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND. A STRONG SHEAR PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VORTICES WITHIN THE FRONT, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TORNADOES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND COULD WELL EXCEED 60MM FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY STEEP SLOPES AND SHARP CATCHMENT AREAS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Oh Phil. Its really hit me hard that I have had no storms again this year. Maybe, just maybe 2012 will give us a rumble or two ( lol). To be honest, I think there are no such things as storms anymore! ( unless you live in the NE .) You wait until winter, they'll be winding us up about their thundersnow next. Yes, I remember those excellent storms we had pushing up from the Bay of Biscuit! Oh, those were the days. But now they can't even be bothered to entertain us anymore. How sad! Yes please Phil, you're my assistant and I look forward to you helping out as long as it takes.

Aww, that is amazing! thank you for sharing this.

I'm not so sure about Spring right now.The RSPB are claiming November has been more like Summer this year! November summer Last modified: 18 November 2011 Wasp nectaring Look out for ivy which is providing refuge for insects still on the wing in November The clocks might have gone back and Christmas shopping started but in the garden at least, summer hasn’t quite ended, says the RSPB. The wildlife charity has been inundated with the kind of calls it would usually expect to receive in the summer for the past few weeks, showing how much of an impact the recent balmy weather has had on garden creatures. Summer migrants like swifts and swallows which would traditionally head back to their winter homes by September are still being reported around the UK, particularly in the North. Blue tits were being seen taking food for young to their nests throughout October, which suggest they may have had an elongated breeding period and a second brood of young, despite usually only having one each summer. Ducks were still frequently nesting under hedges throughout October too, whereas ducklings would usually be fully grown by late August. Even this week ducklings have been spotted sticking close to their mothers, which is extremely late. Garden bird feeders and tables are seemingly deserted as food is still available in the wider countryside. It is usually from July-September that the RSPB receives lots of worried calls asking ‘where have all my birds gone?’ as they are still finding an abundance of berries and insects but throughout November many have still not returned for our hospitality. Insects like wasps and ladybirds are still being seen in large numbers, particularly inside houses. And even butterflies are sticking around with red admirals being most commonly seen around plants like ivy. Tom waters, RSPB Wildlife Adviser, says: “The kind of calls we get at this time of year have been very different this year. We’re usually in the throes of taking about helping garden birds survive the cold weather, but actually people aren’t seeing many of them yet as they’re still getting all they need form further afield. “It’s as if its still summer out there! “However winter will of course come and it’s great that people are thinking about their wildlife. Get prepared before the cold weather finally hits –stock up your feeders and tables as garden birds will need our hospitality eventually.†http://www.rspb.org.uk/news/297769-november-summer?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=News

My other half has said that some of his customers who are elderly have said that we may be in for a snowy december and January.This, being put down to experiences of years gone by after mild Autumns. Of course, we will have to wait and see.There is an old folklore saying also ,( whether you believe it or not) that says late blooms in Autumn means a very cold and snowy winter and I have roses, wallflowers and in bloom at present. Please remember of course this isen't my own forecast.

Come on everyone, lighten up a bit . Winter wont be long now Something to look forward to especially if we do end up with a harsh winter at the end of it all for you coldie fans. :winky:

No, The No storms club stays the way it's always been we keep it as it is thanks. France is usually good for storms, but the UK has suffered for quite a few years now!

Don't you think that's a bit harsh matey!! After all, this is a weather forum.

Hi Raidan I'm afraid it only applies if you're in the UK. But I hope you get loadss of storms in France and Spain which I expect you probably will grrrrrr

You'll have a long wait Gord lol. :lol: I think us lot are stuck in here for good at this rate.