Scorcher

Can you be more specific about the 'declining CET' in the last 3 years? This seems like complete make-believe to me. In the past 3 years we've witnessed the warmest month on record, the 2nd warmest October on record and the January record high temperature was broken amongst many other events that seem to point to unprecedented warmth, except to those who wish to see colder conditions prevailing. It seems to me that we're approaching the point where sub 10C yearly CETs will be a rare occurence.

4 of the 5 warmest summers on record in the last 30 years? The highest ever temperature and the warmest ever month occurring within 3 summers of each other? Surely something has changed. Regardless of whether there was a 'temperature collapse' between July and August, July was the warmest month on record. June was the warmest since 1976. Even with an average August, it's still been the 5th warmest summer which shows how exceptional the June/July combination was. I'm pretty sure that September is also going to be considerably above average which would suggest August was a blip in the run of above average months.

It is very interesting that despite the very pronounced northerly element to the month, the CET has turned out around or fractionally above the 1971-00 average. I think we saw something similar last winter- maybe 20 years ago with the synoptics we witnessed during the winter, we would have seen more sub-zero temperatures and far more snow, but it certainly seems that air masses are getting warmer. As it happened, despite favourable synoptics for cold conditions during the winter, the winter was actually above average overall. It seems like the capacity for cold conditions has been dramatically reduced and to achieve a below average winter it is certainly going to take some exceptional synoptics.

I have a feeling the renewed warmth will surprise a few people this September. The Atlantic is certainly becoming more active now in terms of tropical storms and possibly hurricanes which could have an impact. I'll go for a CET of 15.4C, so slightly warmer than last year. I wonder if there is an outside chance that September could be warmer than August. It would take some doing, but if someone had said earlier in the year that this July would be the warmest month on record I would have laughed.

Yes, but it's a difference between the two halves that is usually far less pronounced than September or May. With still a lot of heat around on the Continent in the second half of August it's quite feasible that the second half could be warmer than the first, and I'm sure it has happened on many occasions.

July was quite something in Manchester as well. Overall there were 15 days above 27C, with a run of 14 consecutive days above 25C. On top of this, 30C was reached 5 times during the month.

But there is not doubt that we are seeing record high temperatures with greater frequency. Only 3 years ago the 100 degree barrier was broken for first time in the UK. The vast majority of months have been above average, with the 2 warmest Octobers on record occurring in the last 5 years. Now 3 years on we've just had the hottest month on record. I think that some find it hard to accept that temperatures are rising and that the cold winter weather they crave could also soon be a thing of the past.

I'll go for 18.6C- it will be very warm but not quite like July.

The July 1983 CET was 19.5C- I think there is a good chance of this being beaten.

Or alternatively we could say that you're the one hoping that it wasn't the warmest in 30 years, it's all subjective as the Manley value suggests that it was the warmest in 30 years, the Hadley value doesn't. The final CET for June 2003- is the Manley figure or the Hadley figure used most commonly, as they must have been different?

I have no idea where they've got the 15.9 figure from- it's considerably lower than the figure quote on Philip Eden's site of 16.2, surely there can't be a difference of .3? It must have risen in the last couple of days of June as well- there was no way it was that far below 16 at any point.

Remember that the Bristol area is one of the warmer areas in the CET zone, so while 21.1C is obviously not accurate, I suspect that the average temperature in Bristol has probably been close to 17C this June.

I have a feeling this July could buck the trend of the past few months. After a very warm first few days I think we could see a cooldown, before the warmth returns after mid-month giving a very warm second half. Something tells me it could be the 2nd half of July that could be considerably warmer than the first.

19.1C for me- with so much heat on the Continent I feel that we could experience some significant hot spells.

I think it's pretty obvious that the CET will be at least what it is now. 16.1°C is one of the lower values that has been given- it's still at 16.4°C on Metcheck.com. We saw 23°C in quite a few places today and 26°C yesterday. The minima have also been easily over 11°C, with an average of around 14°C over the past couple of nights. If we have an average across the locations that is lower than 21°C and 11°C for maxima and minima respectively I will be extremely surprised- we might even get a couple of days that average somewhere in the mid 20s.

It looks to me like the CET will not drop from here- the only way is up as far as the next week is concerned, with minima looking quite high and temperatures possibly into the high 20s in the south.

I'm pleased with mine, but I didn't consider the chance of 15.8 being too low, which still looks possible!

That's fair enough, I need to be educated by experts like yourself! I find your posts very interesting, it's just personally the thought of winter depresses me a bit at this early stage in the summer! I know last year people started looking at trends for winter at the end of August/early September so I think it must become easier in late summer to gain an indication. For the cold fans I really hope the coming winter turns out to be a memorable one- particularly as I won't have to worry about the cold as I'll be studying in Florida! Does a strong positive NAO weather pattern mean mild conditions?

Let's just enjoy the summer first. It's far too early to tell what the winter will hold anyway.

Summer forecast?

If that's the case, then what exactly does 'exceptional' entail? A CET of 19C? It looks like it could pass 17C today, which is certainly exceptional in my book. A minimum of 21C last night in London seems quite exceptional to me, and some places had reached 29C before midday.

Not exactly- being a student, 3.15am is like midday for me! Saying that, it may well be the heat keeping me up this weekend and early next week looking at the forecast!

Opressive, draining, unbearable heat??? In the UK??? Just how often does this happen? Temperatures average between 20-23C over the summer months, so how can this be unbearable? It's much easier to be comfortable in 20C than it is in 5C- at least you don't have to wear a coat.

Am I mistaken or is this the 'summer discussion' thread? I'm sure the cold rampers would be rather annoyed if their 'winter discussion' thread in December was taken over by discussions about the summer. This isn't December, it's June, and summer is only just beginning! Why people would want to think about freezing air, numb hands, those horrendous dreary evenings when it's dark by 4pm and the stuffiness of central heating at the beginning of summer is completely beyond me! The cold bias on these forums bemuses me- just what advantages are there to cold weather? How can a 5C day feel better than a 20C day? Obviously everyone has their preferences, but it would be nice if the warm fans could express their opinions a bit more freely without being ridiculed. It would certainly be more representative of the British population as a whole, the vast majority of whom hope to see settled warm conditions in summer and mild dry weather in winter.

I really doubt it will go below 12c. Today is an average to slightly above average day and temperatures tonight will be above average, so I think we might well see the CET climbing slightly back towards 13C due to high minima.