Scorcher

It's interesting you should mention that station- it recorded 30C in the middle of July 2005 (can't remember the exact date) which made it the warmest spot in the country but it was given little or no mention on these forums. The BBC mentioned it on their website but the impression I got from the reaction on the forums was that it was a not a standard site. During the first heatwave last year some people who live in the Manchester area suggested it was the first time 30C had been reached in Manchester since 2003, but if this site is a standard site then surely the reading from July 2005 is official.

Interesting so I suppose that means it's still up in the air. It is an accurate reading for the centre of a large city- remote sites located in rural areas are not going to produce readings that represent conditions that the majority of the population experiences in a warm spell. We are one of the most urbanised nations in the world after all.

Let's be honest about it, if another site had reached 30C you would be still be desperately trying to find a way to discount it. Hard to accept that your dreams of a year without 30C are over for this year at least. 30.3C is comfortably above it as well, so that is good enough for me and most other people.

It's interesting you mention damp soil- it's amazing how much the soil has dried in this area thanks to a week or so of mainly dry weather. It's surprising how quickly things can dry out with the strong sun at this time of year. I've been down to the woods quite a few times close to where I live and it's bone dry down there. It's one of the reasons why I think August will turn out to be considerably warmer than July, we were getting constant deluges in July which kept the ground saturated pretty much right through the month.

The BBC wouldn't have comfirmed it if it was a non-standard site. 30C has been reached- as much as a lot of you didn't want it to happen I'm afraid it's there in black and white.

Yes I think you'll be miles off with September- impressed with April, May and June though.

It can feel hot without actually being hot statistically. If you're sheltered from any wind and in direct sunlight at this time of year it does feel 'hot' as the sun is 'hot' as it's summer. That's what WIB means I'm sure. I don't think there's anything more irritating on these forums than smart alec weather fans needing everything to be proved statistically- if it feels hot it feels hot, you have no idea about the circumstances of this perceived 'heat'.

Not really surprising given the very warm start to the month that is happening.

I'll go for 17.5C. I haven't entered the last couple of months but I think it's worth a go anyway!

Manchester has reached 25C on two occasions this summer, both were in June.

Yes and this predicted dry spell is good news for people who want the higher temperatures as it will provide a chance for the ground to dry out even if it won't be that warm initially. It looks like most places will have a few consecutive days without rain which is quite something for this summer.

I do agree with what you're saying, I think we will have some exceptionally hot periods interspersed with cooler and wetter periods. I think there is a strong possibility that the Euro High could have a major influence again next summer- and if this happens there is always the potential for records to be broken. It's interesting that you consider 2007 to be a 'cold year'- June was above average but it is all relative I suppose. It has been a 'cold' summer compared to last year.

Maybe so but we've had several very memorable months with exceptional amounts of sunshine since 2000 although most of these have occurred from 2003 onwards. I have to say that the first 3 summers of this decade were very mediocre with very little to write home about. We have, however, seen a number of exceptionally sunny months with the whole summer of 2003 springing to mind as well as June and July 2006, with the latter being the sunniest month on record of course.

Just how much can you conclude from 2 months of 'moderation'? We haven't even had a below average month yet, and it's certainly possible that this month could finish up around average. I think that a couple of cooler months prove very little- look at August last year for example, it was surprisingly cool. However, thoughts of a cooling trend were ended after the ridiculously warm September. There needs to be a long period of below average months before we can come to conclusions about this. But this idea is flawed when we're still recording all time record months isn't it? Especially when you consider April smashed the previous record by 1.0C. That wasn't that long ago at all.

Indeed, you would think that we might need a settled spell with plenty of sunshine to dry the ground out before 30C can be achieved. Saying that I think it's possible anyway in the South East of England with the right synoptics. There is plenty of heat on the continent as you say.

That would probably explain why western areas have fared much better than eastern areas in terms of temperatures and sunshine this month. In the Manchester area we had a lovely 10 day period at the start of the month with a lot of sunshine (not particularly warm though).

I agree that it looks unlikely that 30C will be reached before mid July. I'm quite confident it will be reached this summer though. I was in Paris during the week and 32C was reached on Tuesday there quite unexpectedly, certainly judging by forecasts last weekend. The warm air that produced this temperature was not particularly far away from the South East corner of England.

If June comes in at or below 15C then your prediction of July being cooler than June by up to 0.6C looks even less likely. A sub 15C July?

No chance I'm afraid. June looks like it might end up the wrong side of 16C and in today's day and age I just can't see a sub 16C July.

Why are people so surprised about the current CET? It's only more northern and eastern districts that have experienced predominantly cloudy and cool conditions so far this month. For those on the west side of the country this month has been very pleasant so far, with North West England around 3C above average for the month so far according to Philip Eden (this figure will have dropped today however). While many eastern districts have been plagued by cloud spilling in off the North Sea, London for example has still managed a rather warm and dry month so far. Don't forget that the cloudiness in the east has kept minima at or above average so the temperatures in the east have not been low enough to offset the above average temperatures in areas away from the cloud.

I agree completely, there is also no way you can consider April to be the anomaly when it came so soon after several exceptionally above average months. Let's not forget that March and May have both been above average which in years gone by would have been notable.

Indeed, it's actually only the higher minima that have made it warmer than April. The maximum temperatures were certainly more consistently high for most parts during April than they have been during May. Obviously the warm spell in the South over the past few days has been warmer than anything in April but there has been a North-South divide with many places in the North plagued by cloud and struggling to reach 20C.

It looks like it will end up only marginally above average now. There seems to be a pattern emerging, with unremarkable months that are only slightly above average interspersed with exceptionally above average months.

Sorry that this may seem late but technically it is still March here in the US! I will go for 9.4C if that's possible. I forgot to make a guess last month so I've probably thrown away my good position in the table!

I don't think it will be a cold month but I have a feeling it will be more settled overall than January and therefore clear skies could lead to lower night time minima. I'm thinking there may a cold spell mid month and then becoming milder again towards the end of the month. I'll go for 5.4C.