NorthantsSnow
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Posts posted by NorthantsSnow
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Measured 8cm of lying snow at around 2245 GMT. Snow intensity has picked up since then.
Best snow event here for 3 years. Really happy!
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Snowing pretty heavily here at the moment. Great to watch!
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No...but 4-6c is and that's the predicted maximum for the Midlands.
The Midlands is a broad area. I can assure you that is nowhere near the maximum predicted for here.
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Northampton College webcam shows the snow here quite well:
http://www.northamptoncollege.ac.uk/newbuild/cameras/camera4.aspx
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sorry to keep moaning but the snow aint as bad (i mean heavy) as most of the places people are mentioning and yet we have been under the sweet spot according to the charts. dissapointed a little.
SF, it's moving southeastwards so of course us in the southeastern most corner of the region are going to be last to see the good stuff.
Just be patient. The night is still young with several more hours forecast, and there's some heavier stuff on the way soon according to the radar.
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Here you can see the gem 5 days ago rougly and what the gfs 12z predicts at +12 from today
Anyway snow still coming down well here
OMG that is brilliant accuracy from the GEM at 120hrs out. Have you shown this to the guys in the Models Thread?
I will definitely be keeping a closer eye on the GEM from now on.
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Still snowing lightly with the odd moderate burst, accumulating a covering of sorts. It's been a good start to the evening.
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Sky has a classic "loads of snow" look to it fingers crossed we could have 8 hours of snow ahead of us
Yes I've just been out for a walk and it does have that look about it. Fingers crossed, models still look good for our area later this evening.
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Snow has started in Northampton, tiny flakes but steadily falling in a stiff brezze. Dewpoint -3.1c Temp +0.4c and breeze from SE
You beat me to it.
The snizzle has started. Might get a sugar coating at this rate.
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Looks like you're right in the firing line, NS. About time the Northants posters had a change of luck
For us further to the west, it looks like a period modest-to-heavy snow between 16:00 to mid-evening, followed by a briefish spell of rain. Ice could be a real problem on Sunday morning.
Bish
Cheers Bish ! It does look as though our bad run of luck of late might finally be about to change.
See you all tomorrow when we can switch to nowcasting.
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Epic NMM tonight, especially for the eastern side of the region! I have attached what it is showing for the 6pm and 9pm hours to give you an idea. (hope this is okay mods)
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Are you really convinced by that chart NS? Considering its showing its snowing out into the North Sea just to the East of Scotland despite temperatures of around 4-5C?
It just tells me its unreliable just like those GFS PPN type are sadly.
As with our region, the problem occurs with the timing of the front - coming at the warmest part of the day and the bubble of "milder air" of upper temps of -2 when the PPN first arrives. I would fancy the East Midlands over the West Midlands for snowfall but I would prefer to be in those two areas than my area at this stage.
It's probably the best case scenario. I find the NMM to be more reliable so I'm looking forward to seeing what that shows when it comes out shortly.
Good luck for tomorrow.
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NAE 18z looks very good, with the snow boundary line further west than the previous:
Also liking the darker pink splodge not too far from here!
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First important frame of the NAE 18z looks good for the north west of the region:
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well gfs ends up further east at the crunch time, not good. was to be expected though really has been a trend for the 18z to move things further east after the 12z
No it hasn't mate. Have another look. The snow boundary line is further west than the 12z.
Compare this:
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120203/12/36/prectypeuktopo.png (old version)
To this:
http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png (new version)
We are closer to the snow boundary line than before.
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The GFS has slowed it down a bit in terms of how quickly it arrives. Not much further south and east than Coventry between 1800-2100 according to this run. I'll be sitting here reading the reports from the rest of the region whilst I'm waiting, of course.
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The 18z output is starting to trickle out. All eyes on the NAE/NMM as these are the only models worth following this close to an event.
NAE updates here: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
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Looks good for a long period of time for many in this thread. will we end up with rain late on though?
Edit: Ignore me, looking at the wrong charts.
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NMM to me suggests some snow over Evesham to me for a time although not as long as others of course???
I know what you mean, sometimes the graphical charts do not seem to match the text forecasts that closely in terms of whether it's rain/sleet/snow. But that is what it says when I look at the in depth 48 hour forecast for Evesham which I believe is based on the NMM.
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Yea oh well
Sorry mate, wish I had better news.
You never know though. The models are not always correct. I've seen it before where sleet/icy rain is forecast and it has fallen as snow. It happened loads during that cold spell in Feb 2009.
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Any chance you could tell me about my location?
Okay, hour-by-hour forecast for Evesham according to the NMM:
Sat 16.00: light sleet (0.44mm)
Sat 17.00: moderate sleet (1.01mm)
Sat 18.00: moderate sleet (1.48mm)
Sat 19.00: heavy icy rain (2.53mm)
Sat 20.00: moderate icy rain (1.6mm)
Sat 21.00: moderate icy rain (1.8mm)
Sat 22.00: moderate icy rain (1.78mm)
Sat 23.00: moderate icy rain (0.86mm)
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TOTAL PRECIPITATION: 11.5mm
As you can see, looking very marginal where you are. Temps look a little too high to me, especially later on on Saturday. 2.4C by 11pm according to this model which is far too high. The best thing that could happen for you is it moving through a bit quicker. Otherwise I could see it being snow turning to rain.
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what about the middle midlands? hinckleys on the border, officially in leicestershire, however 1minute drive away im in warwickshire west midlands.
you can see my problem lol
Hi ST. The NMM shows moderate/heavy precipitation over your area for several hours on Saturday from 5pm though to around midnight. You would be looking at around 12cm IF it was snow all the way. However the model indicates it could fall as sleet. :wacko:
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From an IMBY perspective I do like the NMM. Yes it might be quick to move through the region but the upshot of that is (for us in Northants at least) there is no back edge rain to wash it all away.
So for those purely selfish reasons, I do hope the NMM has this one nailed.
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Gutted if the current output is correct. Snow to rain events are a waste of time.
The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 4
in Regional
Posted
It's been a great event. Pretty much exactly as forecast in terms of amounts.