Metomania

It was the 5th warmest since records began in the US. The 106th coldest is a play on words, and not a very clever one at that (as a retired teacher you'd be marked low for trying to be clever, without being!). It is the 106th warmest in 111 winters, or, if you want to use your little word play, it is the 106th least cold. Using coldest will confuse people, and in metereology there is no need for that - especially if it's a deliberate attempt to distort facts.

I decided not to respond on that point ... it's beyond the absurd! (No offence OP, but deary me!)

I think you misread that. It's the 106th warmest in 111 years, not coldest. No in metereological and geophysical terms it is not peanuts, it is the fastest increase in temperature we have seen on this planet. Attitudes like yours are deeply worrying, but fortunately fast becoming the fringe as people take seriously the problems we face.

By the way, just to pick up on one point: not to find anything remarkable in the fact that six of the nine warmest Aprils of the past 40 years have been in the last ten years is itself fairly remarkable. To go 30 years and have 3 of the warmest, and then go 10 years and have 6 of them would be 'noteworthy'.

Going on the graphs, rather than his frontpage which isn't updated since 15th, and up to yesterday? http://www.climate-uk.com/ I'd await his return before we can be sure. Going through some figures based on the 6z run I'd say we should get a figure above 8.8C on the NW tracker - perhaps over 9C is not out of the question. A lot will depend on these maximum temperatures. If the cloud lifts and we see the sort of projected figures then anything up to 9.4 is possible really. I'd reckon between 8.8C and 9.2C looks probably about right from here ... but that's on the NW tracker, which has been very accurate since I joined.

You wouldn't. A little cold-biased I think Nevertheless, the 1940's also had a string of warm Aprils which was equally remarkable. (Though you neatly side-stepped the 6.4C in 1941 I notice!!!!) Personally I'm delighted to be getting back to above average months, although GW worries me greatly.

The CET is lifting briskly now. With it currently at 8.25 something above 8.8C looks likely. If it does attain 8.9C it will be the equal 9th warmest April in the last 40 years. What's amazing about that statistic though is that 6 of them have been in the last 10 years.

Just done the figures, and the six month period from 01st October to 31st March was: 0.3C above the 1961-1990 average 0.1C below the 1971-2000 average and 0.1C above the 100 rolling average 1906-2005. So although there were colder/cooler months, the last six months have been average (the 1961-1990 mean is undoubtedly cold-biased). To have an average 6 months is significant after a large number of months with an upward trend. It will be very interesting to see where things head from here!

The six months from October 1st to March 31st was the coldest since 2000-1. I'm not too sure about the 'astonishing' point really Reef - it all depends on when you pick your reference point. We need to see this in a long-term context. The average (or slightly below) months apart from January will need to be viewed over the following years. If the general trend in the CET remains upward then the 3 months below average 4 if you include February which was average to the 1961-1990 mean) will be an interesting blip. Those who believe in cycles will be hoping the next few winters show the trend to cooler conditions was no one-off, but something more significant. But I do think we need to reserve words like 'astonishing' for now. How did it fare for the 6 months from October 1st to March 31st?

Blast - the 1F increase in the past century, which has shown an acceleration in the last 20 years, is the fastest warm up in the planet's history so far as we can tell. It may not seem much but on a global scale it's a significant increase, and without precedent. The NOAA now report winter 2005/6 as the 5th warmest in the US since 1895 - so that's the 5th warmest in 111 years. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...b/national.html

The Met Office have released both the February CET and the March CET. You can see the Hadley figures on their site, here: http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt February is officially 3.7C and March is officially 4.9C.

The Met Office have released both the February CET and the March CET. You can see the Hadley figures on their site, here: http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt February is officially 3.7C and March is officially 4.9C. (By the way, I agree that it's not unreasonable for a 20C, or even a 21C, to be reached in April but the best test of the month's temperature remains the average temperature, rather than freak warm or freak cold. Those are never good indicators. This was the very point The Eye was making.) Edit - Blast, what is "WIB"?

Well the 8.1C has finally been reeled in on the NW tracker - it's now at 8.1C. With 9 and a bit days to go it's going to be very interesting to see where this winds up!

The Eye, You can't have it both ways! I took issue with your comment that . I challenged this precisely because an overall average April, or indeed an above average one which we're heading for, can be reached in any number of ways. What matters in terms of the CET is not how that average is attained, but whether, over the entire month, the average is below, on, or above. You can't have it both ways - on the one hand complaining at allegedly low maximums at the same time as admitting that there are many ways to get there, including not having high maxima! Consistency please ...As it happens, I don't agree anyway with your maximum temperature assertions for reasons I pointed out, and which you haven't answered: not least that the maximum temperature has exceeded the average every day since April 12th. We're likely to have a 20C or a 21C before the month is out anyway so I'm really not sure what point you're trying to make. The fact, if indeed at midnight on April 30th this is the case, is that April will be an above average month.

Hi Chris - I'm using 'norm' as synonymous with 'average'. So I totally agree about many ways to reach that norm i.e. average for the month. Got to take issue about facts though. I think there are facts - such as that the CET average for 1971-2000 is 8.1C. That's the sort of fact I don't want to concede or metereologists might as well pack up their bags? Another is that the mean max CET temp since April 12th has been above the norm - see Philip's Eden's link I posted. On the other hand, I agree that there are other statistics which can be manipulated, and there are ways of playing with them.

The facts are that the maximum temperature average for April has been exceeded every day for the past 10. On your temp sequence since 1990, 4 years do not appear (1991, 1992, 1995, 2000). Re Mr Foord, the CET's for those years (the best test of a month's temperature, reveal 1991 and 2000 to be 7.8C and 7.9C, but 1992 and 1995 made 8.7C and 9.1C, suggesting the highest temp has little relevance. Of the remainder 4 years reached those highs on either the penultimate or final day of the month. As a 20C is more than possible in the remaining 9 days of this April it would be unwise to draw conclusions, before the conclusion. Otherwise it looks like fact-twisting before the facts are in! It's nice to wish for warmth, but the 2-season mentality that you seem to be in from your post is not a fair reflection of UK climate. We have 4 seasons, and we're in spring at the moment. 21C in April is an unusual temperature. We may get it this month, but it's not the April norm. We're heading for an April that is above average, even by the 1971-2000 mean. You can't really say fairer than that.

That doesn't follow. If April is average (which it currently is) then there is no logical justification for anyone to complain about the temps. Unless you 1. believe in Global Warming 2. want it to produce averages 3C higher than normal 3. get annoyed when it does not. In fact, looking at Philip Eden's site the maximum temperatures on the CET have been above average every day since April 12th - it may seem surprising but it's true: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0604.htm A lot of those temps you posted come right at the end of the month - 10 days away from now. Looking at the overnight models and a bit of a slip in maxes, more in line with last night's BBC1 forecast. Might just see a 20C tomorrow.

I can remember after the 1976 summer headlines like 'The Dry Years are Here to Stay' with dire predictions of water shortages. And then we had the August bank holiday that year and it wasn't talked about much after that! Snowsure - thanks for comments. Re. 7 I just think there's no likelihood of NAD shutdown.

The NW tracker has finally hauled in the 1961-1990 average - it's now on 7.9C. The real one to strip is the 8.1C which is the average both for 1971-2000 and 1906-2005 100 year rolling. It's taken a while to come up, but I expect it will now whizz past fairly briskly with the sort of temps projected ahead. Thereafter it's anyone's guess, but I'm feeling reasonably happy with my orginal 9.1C guestimate! :lol:

ACB's post was excellent and I don't really think, with all due respect, you've dealt with his points adequately; although you have made a couple of valid ones. 1. & 5. It may be the start of a trend, but ... 3. ... how can you pluck an isolated incident and project it as a worldwide theory? This is where your car argument is fallacious. By your analogy the theory should be this: all cars are now starting to burst into flames. How do I know this? Because when I looked out of my window this morning my car was on fire. Global Warming is, by definition, a global issue and to take one local variation and use that as an argument on a global scale would be kindergarten behaviour (I'm not accusing you of that of course). So, we had an average winter in the UK. Big deal. North America has one of its warmest winters on record (just waiting to see if it was the warmest). Get a global perspective or be a scientific laughing stock (again that's not written to you personally). Edit - mind you, if we do start seeing global changes these must by the same token be taken seriously. At the moment the global signs are very much for warming, and at an increasing speed. 4. Although you make a good point (freaky things happen), I think you miss the point ACB was making. People have a tendency to take an isolated event and use it as an argument for widespread change. See my response above. 7. NAD shutdown would be pretty bad news for UK PlC. Fortunately I think it's as likely as being able to walk to the moon. 2. There is no proven causal link between snow cover and temperatures, although Metcheck do persist in using the idea. But more to the point, snow cover high up may occur, but places lower down would experience less cover and, geographically, that means less landmass snow coverage (lower areas would see snow cover spread over a wider surface area). This is not abstract. Excellent snowfall in the Rockies this year, but places which normally have snow cover for 3 months over wide areas had zilch (eg the Calgary plain).

TWS, and one or two others, I think there's possibly a need for a slight correction here. The average temperature rises steeply through April. There will always be exceptions (although whether there has been a colder second half than first half I'm not sure - probably at some point). The difference though in average max temp from 01st to 30th April is a full 3C, and even the minimum rises by 1.5C through the month. There will always be exceptions should the synoptics turn out cold, but it would be highly unusual not to have a warmer second half of the month than first. To get 2/3rds through the month at average temperature means it is very likely the final 1/3rd will pull up the average. The synoptics certainly bear this out, with increasing warmth. Hi - hate the things. Cold but rarely snowy. Nasty biting winds. Fortunately they are rarely vicious as far as Exeter, but even so I can't stand them!

North America (the US and Canada) experienced one of the warmest winters in living memory. We had one that was about average. To start postulating ice ages based on a bit of a chilly February is beyond a joke ...

Half way through the month now and with the CET at 7.3 it would be surprising from here if we didn't have an abover average month. It may not be by much, or it might be by a lot, but as the second half is nearly always warmer than the first, and with the synoptics the way they are, those in the above 8C bracket should be confident. To get a colder second half of April than the first (has it happened before, and if so when I wonder?) we'd need some pretty grim synoptics - like a nasty easterly. Thankfully that doesn't look likely. A bit of a northerly later this week. If the HP trundles west afterwards mind then we could see a cool airflow, but under cloudy skies it wouldn't really peg things back much probably. Instead the models increasingly point to warm potential.

Well we are all entitled to viewpoints. I'm just thankful yours doesn't come off, and doesn't stand a chance of coming off!

I think we've strayed from the point. It is 7C at the moment in the Bering sea - a full 6C above the norm. That's an astonishing and deeply disturning anomaly which is not the stuff of future nightmares, but happening now. No it's just an idea. No-one knows if fresh water in that concentration will 1. have much effect and 2. have enough effect to outweigh the other factors. It's pure conjecture.