Metomania

Interesting thoughts, though Philip's Manley one is usually lower under high pressure inversion because the Hadley stations are at higher elevation. So in cold settled months with inversion Hadley is usually above Philip. Persian, the reason it is central England is just that is the way it has been since the series began in the C17th.

Agreed, rounding up to 4.9C. Might still touch 5C, especially on the Hadley figure.

We will see! It will finish today (midnight) at around 4.25C on the NW scale, and probably something similar on Philip Eden's. With 4 days left I am confident it will nudge to 5C. A bit of harmless fun this!

Yeah, but March is often like this my friend. April can be similar, but March is particularly prone to temp swings (see Mr Data's posts on this). Those who study the reports will still see that it was a very cold opening to the month. 2/3rds of the month was well below average. The River Exe has burst its banks outside Exeter. Good sign! Philip's CET will have gone up another 0.2 or 0.3C today to around 4.3C. Can't see how 5C won't be reached really. Are those of us who do not like the cold allowed to use those terms for snow then?! This Atlantic weather is FANTASTIC. Great to see a return to proper English weather at last, with some wonderful rain and howling winds. Just grand!

Philip Eden now has the CET at 4C. Looking at those synoptics the 4.5/4.6 looks too low. I still think there is every chance of it popping over 5C now. With 5 days to go and the runs well above average it seems likely. Something around 5.1C to 5.2C seems probable (on a par with 2001 then). It will still rank as a below average month, and many will remember the opening half as persistently cold.

Only in the south. Very much not so further north and west. Please don't be too south-eastist! And that's EXACTLY what they said - they singled out the south, noting it would not be so close to average the further north you went. It is one of the best long range forecasts for some time, especially given the context.

Is the February figure out yet? I haven't seen it published. Di dyou get the 3.8C from Philip? It's the very high nightime minima we are getting. It is putting paid to records for those that look for them. I think your 4.6C for March is too low now. At the rate this is going 5C is now very possible. There may be a check on Tuesday with some cooler air though. Despite the warm final week this has been the coldest start to March many of us can remember down here.

Hello Blast from the Past. I take it from your name that you are an advocate of cold weather and would like nothing less than to get it? You might well be right with the possible marker comment, but only time will tell. A couple of months below the 1971-2000 average, with average temperatures in the others is not really enough to suggest a winter 'predominantly on the cold side' is it? Especially if you look at Philip Eden's excellent graphic showing that this was really only in the south of England (as the Met Office correctly forecast). From the Midlands northwards it was anything but a cold winter relative to averages. In terms of longer term cyles, or not, we have to watch and wait. Europe had a colder winter than in recent years for much of it, whilst North America had a very mild one. It is too soon and too dangerous to take small statistics onto a bigger scale in my opinion. On the March CET itself, it is pushing up hard at the moment. The tracker on this site which is quite close to Philip's figure, which in turn is very close to the UKMO Hadley one is likely to be ar 4C by the end of today. I think 4.5C is much too low but, as with most things, time will tell!

Hello Mr Data (Star Trek right?!). I am a bit confused. Your data refers to March means of 1C or more below the CET on the older 1961-90 scale, and you then refer to 'if March is less than 5.7'. But surely the 1961-90 Hadley CET is 5.7C. Don't you mean, if the figure is below 4.7C? The way the March figure has risen today makes the high 4's very likely, and into the 5's quite possible. It will still be a below average month barring some really bizarre temperatures. Will it be the coldest March since 1996 (4.5C) or 'only' since 2001 (5.2C)? Does it matter?! And does that have any bearing on April? Probably not! I may have some fun and join this game with a guess for April in a bit when I've studied some LRFs. The safest thing is probably not to try and estimate it! It might be best to hold the 'well below' tag until the month has actually finished? It may not be well below, but rather 'below'.

Why 'worrying'? Does it matter?

I think you may be slightly low there ChrisL. I don't find the LRF temperature forecasts to be very accurate on min/maxes. Last night, for example, was significantly milder than the maps were projecting. Somewhere between 4.5C and 5C looks likeliest at this stage to me. However with that much scatter in the ensembles a few .1C's could be up for grabs either way!

I can't see it hitting 6C even with a week of milder airmass. It is rising fast but something around about 4.8C looks likeliest. It might sneak into the 5's. It was a very cold start to March, but by the end it will probably be the coldest March since 1996, although it is just about possible it might reach the 5.2C figure of 2001. Some eyes will be set next on whether the 10C CET will be reached this year. Since 1996 there has been a peculiar pattern of 4 years really warm (over 10C) followed by 1 year slightly less mild (sub 10C). This year could fit that again after 4 very warm years. It is too early to say though of course! What cannot be gainsaid is that the trend to a warmer climate is continuing unabated.

Yes you are right. If the 12z GFS output is right that is. I may have been conservative in suggesting over 5 is very unlikely. There are some warm plumes showing up for the end of this week, which if they transpired could really send the CET upwards quickly. It will still overall be a below average month though almost certainly. [Edit. Thank you for the welcome John. I'm a big fan, but I'll leave it at that! wink thingy]

You need to times the 3.16 by the number of days = 21. Then times your estimated remaining temperatures by the number of remaining days = 10. Then divide the whole by 31. Going by your figures the average CET would therefore be 3.16 x 21 = 66.36 + 6.28 x 10 = 63: Total = 129 divided by 31 = 4.16 on your figures. Guessing the real temperatures from synoptic runs is very hazardous at that range! The most we can honestly anticipate from models beyond T72 are the synoptics. Intricate details like precipitation patterns and temperature values are best left to the short-term. Even so, it looks quite likely that the CET will be somewhere in the 4-range. It would take some really warm air to bring it over 5C from here, and correspondingly very cold temperatures to hold below 4. Neither of those look likely. So somewhere in the 4's looks probable.