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Gibli

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Posts posted by Gibli

  1. Worth adding to Paul's explanation is that the operational model also has much more resolution in the vertical than the ensemble model, currently 64 to 28 levels I think.

    Is the GFS generally seen as the most accurate? No, over the longer term the ECMWF is generally the most accurate but much of its output is restricted to the national weather services of the member states. The GFS and the UK Met Office model are about the same in terms of accuracy, but only the GFS stuff is widely available, which is why we see it in so many forms on so many sites. There are some graphs comparing various models but can't find them at th moment.

    Gibli

  2. The lightning maps which ceased in mid December when the UK Met Office stopped sending the coded reports, have now returned in a slightly different form and with 5 minute updates. Thanks due I believe to Christian of 'meteocentre'. Link below:

    http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk....&map=Europe

    You'll see various options along the top - Europe, France, northwest Europe and southeast Europe. Colour coding is the number of minutes since a strike occurred, so royal blue = 180 to 360 minutes since a strike etc. etc. Toggle 'type' on the right hand side for the number of impacts in the last 30 minutes.

    The return of a really useful site for storm watchers.

    Gibli

  3. The 850, 700, 500mb charts which show isotherms are showing the actual air temperture or forecast actual air temperature - as would be measured by a thermometer attached to a weather balloon (radiosonde).

    But beware models calculate other 'temperatures' which are useful in forecasting.

    Gibli

  4. are their any signs of the jet moving further north?

    Try looking here on the netweather site for the next 10 days or so

    http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/pr...21297dd6ada6e10

    Or

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_carte...de=0&mode=5

    Click on 'anim' at top left of the map and wait. Also shows the whole northern hemisphere (Carte Hemi nord) - final option above the chart. These will give a good indication if the jet is likely to move north. (Suite) belowT+180 leads to T+ 192 -384.

    Good luck

    Gibli

  5. Also worth mentioning are drifting buoys. These are relatively cheap and dropped overboard from ships in strategic and often remote parts of the ocean by research and other vessels. Generally speaking they measure sea temperature, air temperature and pressure. A few also measure wind strength. As with moored buoys, communications is via satellite, usually once per hour. A couple of nights ago one of these buoys recorded some exceptionally rapid falls of pressure in mid Atlantic - the only such observations - of over 20mb in 3 hours. They are battery powered and often send back information for over 12 months. Position is determined by GPS and as they drift with the currents, they often move on seemingly erratic courses. Being cheap they are expendable and I believe there are hundreds of them, roaming the seas in data sparse areas, particularly the southern oceans.

    Moored buoys are tethered to a large lump of concrete (I think) to which is attached a chain and the connection to the buoy is a kind of bungee cable. This allows the buoy to roam a little within a radius of about 1 mile in rough weather. The largest ones are operated by the USA in very hostile waters, particularly in the Pacific and are up to 12 metres in diametre. If you check the NDBC site referred to above, go to the Alaska sector and select buoy 46035. It shows a picture of this buoy undergoing maintenance - the men on board give an idea of just how big the largest buoys are. Here is the link to the photo of 46035:

    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/stations/46035.jpg

    Gibli

  6. <<Not embarking on a trumpet blowing exercise by any means but theirs an unofficial guideline where temps exceeding 50'C are actually recorded UNDER the value due to H&S reasons . . . . . . . >>

    Can't comment on implied false Iraq temperature reporting, but its unlikely H & S are prominent in Kuwait. Apart from the Airport, all the Kuwaiti stations are automatic reports, so difficult to see how they can be 'doctored'. Kuwait Airport and nearby Abadan (Iran) reported occasional 50C+ maximums at this time of the year long before Iraq was occupied/liberated. Still hot in Kuwait yesterday with reported maxima:

    40550 / Abdaly 50.7

    40582 / Airport 50.2

    40592 / Al Wafra 50.9

    Several other 48 to 49C maximums and 50.0 at Dhahran (Saudi).

    Gibli

  7. The summer heat is reaching its peak at the northern end of the Persian Gulf with maximum temperatures exceeding 50C and minimums of 30 to 33C. Dew points are around 30C on the coast at times with some dramatic changes in humidity as the sea breezes push inland at times. A selection of the highest maximums, with the date, reported in the last few days :

    Kuwait

    51.9 at Abdaly (27th)

    50.9 at Abdaly (28th)

    49.9 at Kuwait Airport (28th)

    50.4 at Al Wafra (27th)

    Iran

    50.2 at Abadan

    Saudi Arabia

    51.0 at Dhahran (28th)

    Iraq

    49C at Basra, from the Metar reports today

    48C at Baghdad from Metar reports

    49C at Tallil from Metar reports

    Gibli

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