Typhoon Hunter

Yagi has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm and is expected to reach typhoon intensity in 24hrs. Here's the latest JMA advisory: Issued at 12:00 UTC 18 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 20.7N 159.4E FAIR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 20.3N 159.0E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 201200UTC 20.2N 154.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 211200UTC 21.7N 148.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT

Here's the latest on Yagi from JMA: Issued at 06:00 UTC 18 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 20.7N 158.9E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 20.2N 158.3E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 200600UTC 20.0N 154.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 210600UTC 21.4N 148.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT Here's their forecast track:

Typhoon Shanshan has sadly killed 9 people in Southern Japan. Here's a link to some impressive pictures on Yahoo!, including a train which was blown over: Typhoon Shanshan news pictures Here's an article from Yahoo. I hope they find the missing journalist in one piece.

As Peter said we now have TS Yagi far out in the Pacfic. Here's the latest from JMA: Issued at 09:00 UTC 17 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 21.0N 157.8E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 21.4N 158.1E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 190600UTC 22.2N 158.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 200600UTC 21.9N 156.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT Most agencies forecast a temporary track northwards before turning south then west.

Hi Craig, just looking at the latest sat and it appears the outer bands are clipping your area. I'm not expecting much in Shanghai but something lively could pop through! Shanshan is trundling NE after hammering the Ryuku Islands. Geoff Mackley's website www.rambocam.com has a great sat pic of the islands in the eye wall. JMA have upgraded her to a 100kt system which is very big in JMA terms and expect her to make landfall in Kyushu in 24hrs as a 90kt system which is far more powerful than at first thought. Here's their summary and warning track: Issued at 09:00 UTC 16 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 26.5N 125.4E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 32.0N 129.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 180600UTC 37.6N 132.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 190600UTC 40.2N 133.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT Here's the latest sat courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page: I also have my eye on invest 96W. This looks like it's almost reached TD strength and has been upgraded to "fair" by JTWC.

Hi Craig. It's pretty calm here in Shanghai at the moment with light rain and a slight breeze. Looking at the latest satellite pics the outflow isn't that far from Shanghai...will keep post again if conditions start deteriorating.

Typhoon Shanshan is bombing! JMA have upgraded her to a 90kts storm and JTWC have current 1 min winds estimated at 115kts. They expect her to intensify to 125kts. Taiwan is currently obscurred by the outflow and it looks like some strong embedded thunderstorms will be heading there from the north soon. The latest sat (courtesy of NRL Monterey) shows this nicely: Since this is passing slap bang between Taiwan and Okinawa I'm unable to intercept, had she tracked 120nm east I'd have been on a plane 6 hours ago. Still I bet the wave show on the east coast of Taiwan is pretty insane!

Typhoon Shanshan has intenisfied and is looking beautiful just sitting off the east coast of Taiwan. JMA have her winds at 85kts (10 min) and JTWC 100kts (1 min.) CWB have issued sea warnings and the hourly track of the typhoon can be found on their website: CWB website Taiwanese radar is also picking up the eye nicely at the moment, here's the latest image courtesy of CWB: Here's the latest visible sat image from NRL Monterey, it's very beautiful:

Shanshan up to 85kts now with pressure of 945HPA. JMA now forecasting to turn NW at T+72: Issued at 06:00 UTC 12 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 19.7N 131.6E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 20.3N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 140600UTC 20.8N 127.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 150600UTC 22.1N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT Looks like this one could be for Okinawa...JTWC certainly think so:

Shanshan is really intensifying nicely. JMA expect her to become a 95kt typhoon! Will be interesting to see if they forecast a re-curve...at the moment they have a WNW track for forecast period: Issued at 03:00 UTC 12 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 131.8E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 20.5N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 140000UTC 21.2N 127.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 150000UTC 22.0N 125.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT It's possible to make out the eye on latest visible sat image. Courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

Ok here's what I've been able to gather regarding Shanshan. First of all I'll start with JMA who is the official forecasting agency for this area. They have upgraded Shanshan to a severe tropical storm (STS): Issued at 12:00 UTC 11 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 18.8N 133.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 20.2N 131.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 131200UTC 21.1N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 141200UTC 21.5N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT CWB of Taiwan have also upgraded Shanshan and have a similar forcast track: Even the mainland Chinese (CMA) with they're wonderfully clear map agree with the Taiwanese on something! In addition there's the forecast from HKO which John posted earlier this afternoon which shows a similar track to the above mentioned agencies. Then's there's JTWC. They are really plugging the re-curve option now and strengthen Shanshan into a 115kt howler near Okinawa. Here's their latest chart: Hopefully things will be a bit clearer in 24hrs time. Luckily for me this system has been slow moving so far, as I mentioned earlier I will not be able to travel until Friday 0100z when I pick up my passport from Shanghai Immigration Office. The way the JMA forecast is going I'm on standby to intercept....time will tell. P.S Apologies to users whose computers may take a while to load all the pics.

John thanks for posting that, was about to check up on HKO forecast track, even Shanghai Typhoon Institute (part of CMA) forecast Shanshan to move toward Taiwan. I'll write a longer post once the latest JTWC track comes out within the hour...I have a feeling the poleward turn is going to become less and less prominent. We'll see!

Tropical Storm Shanshan is intensifying quite rapidly at the moment but there still remains a sharp contrast in forecast track between JTWC and JMA/CWB. Here's the latest JMA summary: Issued at 03:00 UTC 11 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 18.2N 133.9E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 20.2N 131.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 130000UTC 20.9N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 140000UTC 21.0N 126.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT They expect her to track towards S Taiwan. This is in contrast to JTWC who expect Shanshan to make a more poleward turn later on in forecast period: However, regardless of differences in forecast track, Shanshan is expected to intensify and is already looking great on satellite, could teach Florence a lesson or two in presenting herself! Courtesy of NRL Monterey:

JMA forecasts Shanshan head westward towards S Taiwan/ Phillipines, so things are quite conflicting at the moment which is to be expected. I just hope this doesn't intensify into a beast and make landfall before Friday. My passport is with the Public Security Bureau until Friday thus rendering me immobile!!

Well it took less than 24 hours for Shanshan to be upgraded to a tropical storm. Here's what JMA have to say: T0613 (SHANSHAN) Issued at 12:00 UTC 10 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 16.8N 134.8E POOR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 18.8N 132.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 121200UTC 19.8N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 131200UTC 20.0N 127.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT They expect Shanshan to intensify and reach minimal typhoon strength within 72hrs. The Taiwanese forecast Shanshan to head in the direction of Taiwan and the Ryuku Islands. Here's their forecast track: Finally JTWC have a similar track at first but then expect it to make a more NW turn after T+72: Of course anything after T+72 is highly uncertain so we'll have to wait and see where this is likely to make landfall (if she doesn't recurve.)

Looks like we could have a TS within the next 24hrs. Here's the latest gale warning from JMA: WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPAAT 15.0N 136.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08KNOTS.POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 16.7N 133.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. Here's the latest JTWC track:

JMA have now upgraded the low pressure area (94W) to a TD. Here's their latest summary: SUMMARY. LOW 1006 HPA AT 51N 131E NNE 20 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E WEST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 22N 124E WSW SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 28N 162E WNW 10 KT. HIGH 1028 HPA AT 38N 106E SE 10 KT. HIGH 1026 HPA AT 47N 174E ESE 15 KT.

Well it looks like the NWP might be waking up, however it better not wake up to much until next Friday when I can collect my passport from the immigration bureau where my residence permit is being processed! Here's the latest from JMA: SUMMARY. (1) LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 24N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY. (2)LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY. (3)LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 26N 166E NNW 10 KT. HIGH 1026 HPA AT 49N 156E ALMOST STATIONARY.HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 108E TO 34N 114E 37N 117E 40N 122E 44N 125E44N 129E. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 141E TO 38N 145E 42N 147E 42N 151E. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= #1 is invest 95W. #2 is invest area 94W. JTWC has the following on this disturbance: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.4N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 080122Z AMSU PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF A TUTT CELL WITH WEAK EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. #3 is way out in the ocean and is invest 92W. 94W is the area I'm gonna keep a close eye on at the moment.

The latest Guam IR sat loop shows nicely how Ioke is becoming more ragged: Guam IR sat loop

Looks like Ioke is going to recurve before hitting mainland Japan. Here's the latest from JMA: Issued at 06:00 UTC 3 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 25.6N 152.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 28.4N 148.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 050600UTC 32.2N 145.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 060600UTC 37.7N 147.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT

Blackie it's forecast to head towards south coast of Honshu. Here's JMA map:

The image below gives some scale and goes to show how huge Ioke is. Taken from Digital Typhoon.org:

Ioke has weakened but is still a potent TC. Here's the latest from JMA: Issued at 03:00 UTC 2 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 23.2N 158.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 24.8N 153.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 040000UTC 26.5N 149.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 050000UTC 28.2N 145.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT As for forcast track, JMA forecast Ioke to head towards southern Japan. JTWC has Ioke passing close to Tokyo but staying off shore on the 7th with winds of 90kts gusting to 110kts. CWB of Taiwan have a similar forecast track to JMA.

Ioke now looks to be heading in the direction of Iwo Jima if I'm not mistaken. Looks more and more likely it could end up hitting mainland Japan. Here's the latest forecast from JMA, they still want to keep Ioke at 105kts for 45+ hours: Issued at 03:00 UTC 1 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 21.0N 164.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 22.6N 159.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 030000UTC 23.9N 154.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 040000UTC 25.8N 149.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT

BBC Weather website World News section has the following today: