Typhoon Hunter

Well the eye wall of Ioke has passed over Wake Island. Whilst on another forum I found a TAF for Wake, it's the most fascinating one I've ever seen: TAF PWAK 302222 01035G55KT 1600 TSRA SCT005 OVC020CB QNH2900INS BECMG 0506 34050G75KT 0100 +TSRA BLPY BKN005 OVC020CB BECMG 1011 34095G150KT 0100 +TSRA BLPY BKN005 OVC010CB The latter one is winds of 95kts gusting to 150kts...pretty cool TAF! Plus here's tide and met data for Wake just before the mayhem started: Wake Is tide and met info JMA doesn't forecast Ioke weaken in the next 48+ hours. Here's their latest advisory: Issued at 09:00 UTC 31 Aug 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 310900UTC 19.5N 166.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 21.4N 163.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 030600UTC 24.6N 153.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT

I doubt it since it's a US military base. If there are any they won't be around for much longer!

Supertyphoon Ioke has intensified back into a cat 5 monster. It just refuses to weaken! Here's the latest JMA data (10 min windspeeds): Issued at 09:00 UTC 30 Aug 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 300900UTC 17.3N 170.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 310900UTC 19.0N 167.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 010600UTC 20.1N 163.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 020600UTC 21.8N 158.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT I can't see there much to be going back to in Wake. The latest JTWC forecast has Ioke passing 1 mile from Wake with winds 135kts gusting to 165kts!! P.K that would be really interesting to see how this compares to previous storms. Must be a contender for longest period of cat4/5 winds!?!

Thanks for posting that link Hendy....gonna be interesting to see reports when people return to the island!

The latest JTWC forecast track has Ioke passing even closer to Wake than that article suggests. At the moment it's forecast to pass 21 miles to the north. Wake could be blown off the map!

Here's an article which Geoff Mackley (Geoff's website) found. It concerns Ioke and Wake Island's preparations: Stars and Stripes - Typhoon Ioke and Wake Island

Wake Island certainly looks like it's in for a severe hammering...hope they got the people out of there! Here's the latest on Ioke from JMA: Issued at 06:00 UTC 29 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 16.2N 173.4E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 17.5N 170.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 310600UTC 19.3N 167.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 010600UTC 21.4N 164.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT

Hi Iain. Ioke will surely break quite a few records...how about longest time sustaining cat4/5 winds...not sure what the record is. This system is truly a beast and really the "perfect storm" - sorry to use the cliche but it really is!!! :lol: Just read this on Central Pacific Hurricane Centre website: IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER THE COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.

Hurricane Ioke is ploughing its way through the C Pacific heading towards the 180W line! What's the record for the longest time a TC has had sustained winds of hurricane strength? Ioke seems never ending at the moment. Here's the latest from CPHC: BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM FAR WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.7 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1035 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...19.1 N...173.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BURKE/KODAMA The image below is great, shows both Ioke and Ileana:

The area of low pressure in the South China Sea has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression by JMA. Here's their latest summary: SUMMARY. LOW 1000 HPA AT 35N 151E NNW SLOWLY. LOW 1008 HPA AT 28N 178E NNE 10 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 18N 111E ESE SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 22N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY. HIGH 1012 HPA AT 39N 133E EAST 10 KT. HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 146E EAST 10 KT. HIGH 1012 HPA AT 20N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY. HIGH 1020 HPA AT 42N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 44N 141E TO 44N 145E 48N 150E 50N 155E 50N162E. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Hi PK. Yes I was aware that that TD was ex-Wukong but thanks for letting others know who might not have realised. Talking of TDs, JMA mention a new one below: WARNING AND SUMMARY 220600. SUMMARY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 34N 152E WEST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 18N 109E WNW SLOWLY. (97W) LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 23N 123E WEST SLOWLY. HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 130E ESE 10 KT. HIGH 1018 HPA AT 43N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 139E TO 47N 146E 49N 152E 50N 160E. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= JTWC have their eyes on an area of convection just to the west of Hainan Island, it's currently Invest 97W. Meanwhile in the central Pacific Hurricane Ioke is intensifying and currently has max sustained winds of 130mph. Looks like Johnson Island could get a real hammering. More info here: Central Pacific Hurricane Centre

Hi P. I was watching the Chinese news a couple of days ago and they were mentioning the drought in the Sichuan area...bad news for the poor farmers over there! The Pacific east of the Phillipines (around Guam/ Saipan etc) is the breeding ground for typhoons certainly at this time of year. Even to the north around Iwo Jima the ocean creates some real belters (ie Supertyphoon Haitang last year!) However the season has been quite slow so far and not good at all for intercepting. Saomai would have been good if I had had the right visas for Mainland China! Here's the latest JMA analysis on NWP: SUMMARY. LOW 986 HPA AT 60N 132E ENE 15 KT. LOW 1004 HPA AT 39N 179W NORTH 10 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 42N 132E ENE 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 22N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 26N 152E NE 15 KT. HIGH 1020 HPA AT 43N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY. OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 61N 135E TO 59N 138E 58N 140E. WARM FRONT FROM 58N 140E TO 56N 144E 55N 146E. COLD FRONT FROM 58N 140E TO 54N 140E 47N 133E. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= Hurricane Ioke has intensified quickly. The latest forecast track shows it tracking to the NW and intensifying to 104mph: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/C..._errorTrack.gif

Hi P. This disturbance has been upgraded to 01C and Honolulu forecast it to reach hurricane strength in 3 days (forecast subject to change of course!) If and when it gets named it will be called Ioke. Here's a link to the latest forecast track: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/C...006_frTrack.gif Wukong is weakening over the Korean peninsula at the moment and has been downgraded to a TD. Here's the latest JMA data: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 39N 130E MOVE N 10KT PRES 1002HPA This'll be my last update on the system.

Here's the latest on TS Wukong: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 35.2N 130.1E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 39.1N 127.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 210600UTC 42.1N 131.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW It's heading towards the east coast of S Korea.

I saw that TD mentioned on the JMA website, it seems to have dissipated now. Meanwhile TS Wukong has made landfall in S Japanese island of Kyushu. Here's the latest data from JMA: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 32.6N 130.5E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 982HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 35.4N 129.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 200600UTC 38.5N 128.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 210600UTC 41.4N 131.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Sorry for lack of update yesterday, half a bottle of whiskey and a dodgy 711 hotdog got the better of my stomach!!! :lol: Anyway, here's what's going on in the NWP. TS Wukong is wobbling off the SE coast of Kyushu and has max winds of 45kts. Here's the latest JMA data: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 31.2N 132.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 33.6N 130.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 190600UTC 36.8N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 200600UTC 41.1N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT It's forecast to make landfall in the next 24hrs and head north. Meanwhile JTWC have their eye on invest 98W. They reckon it has "poor" chance of further development over next 24hrs.

Hi Pamenides. I'm not a meteorologist so my knowledge on the Fujiwhara effect is limited (but trying to learn all the while!!) however it basically involves one storm affecting the track of the other eg orbit around each other. As I said before P.K is prob the person to ask about this. Not plugging another forum but there is a discussion going on here which makes interesting reading weather.org.hk about possible Fujiwhara interaction between Sonamu and Wukong. Here's the wikipedia link to it as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect Blackie and Craig, I've spent a couple of summers up in Shanghai and indeed it can get disgustingly hot (the pollution makes it disgusting!) Last summer in Taiwan the weather was crazy hot in the days before Supertyphoon Haitang made landfall. Indeed living in the Asia/Pacific rim is v. interesting especially around this time of year! Meanwhile on the TS front, Wukong is still wobbling northward in the direction of Japan, here's the latest JMA info, looks like could be eventual landfall in S Japan: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 151200UTC 29.3N 138.2E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 170NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 161200UTC 30.1N 135.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 171200UTC 30.3N 134.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 181200UTC 30.4N 132.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT Meanwhile with TS Sonamu: Issued at 12:00 UTC 15 Aug 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 151200UTC 23.9N 139.1E FAIR MOVE NE 23KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161200UTC 30.9N 138.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION Conditions where I am on Ko Chang in E Thailand have been very rough today and it was great to test out my new waterproof filming gear in preparation for any upcoming typhoons! :blink:

Hi parmenides which previous cyclones are you refering to? Ones this season? Wukong and Sonamu are quite close to each other and there's talk of Fujiwhara effect coming into play soon which could see Wukong turning west and then SW. P.K. is the one to ask about this!! The image below shows the close proximity of the two: Here's the latest JMA info for both systems: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 26.7N 137.9E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 28.7N 136.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 161200UTC 28.8N 134.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 171200UTC 28.8N 133.4E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 070KT Here's the latest on Sonamu: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 19.8N 132.2E FAIR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 23.7N 138.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 161200UTC 30.0N 140.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Morning all (afternoon for me!) There are now two tropical systems in the NWP, since 96W was upgraded to a TD overnight. Tropical storm Wukong (10W) is meandering slowly northwards and is blowing 45kts. It's forecast to take a more westerly track in the next 48hrs. By 72hrs it's forecast to reach typhoon strength. Here's the latest from JMA: Issued at 06:00 UTC 14 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 26.6N 137.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 28.6N 137.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 160600UTC 28.7N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 170600UTC 28.6N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 070KT Tropical storm Sonamu (11W) has formed off the east coast of the Phillipines and is forecast to head out into the Pacific in an ENE/NE direction. Current winds are at 40kts. Here's the latest JMA data on this system: Issued at 06:00 UTC 14 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 18.7N 131.4E FAIR MOVE ENE 17KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 22.1N 137.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 160600UTC 29.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Thanks Blackie for pointing that out, I'll give it a go! Apologies, the TCFA I mentioned earlier for 96W is a misplaced image (it's the one that was issued for Prapiroon and doesn't apply to 96W at all!) However 96W is looking quite tasty on the latest sat image. Meanwhile TS Wukong is blowing 40kts and moving north at 6kts. Here's the latest JMA info: Issued at 12:00 UTC 13 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 26.1N 138.4E POOR MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 28.9N 137.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 151200UTC 29.8N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT

JTWC have just issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for area of convection 96W located at 14.4N 126.9E (just off coast of Phillipines). This is not up on the JTWC website yet but details can be found here: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Metsul, thanks for posting that link, don't understand the lingo in the article but interesting images/loops none the less! 0610 has quickly intensified into a TS. Here's the latest from JMA: T0610 (WUKONG) Issued at 06:00 UTC 13 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 25.7N 138.4E POOR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 28.7N 137.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 150600UTC 29.8N 136.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 160600UTC 30.0N 133.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT They expect it to make a sharp turn to the west in the seas to the south of Japan.

JTWC now have a Tropical Cyclone formation out for 92W. JMA forecast it to develop into a TD and move NE, will keep an eye on it voer the next 24hrs to see what happens.

Saomai has turned into a real belter and is making landfall on the east coast of China. It reached supertyphoon status according to JTWC with winds of 130kts gusting to 160kts. Hope the Chinese authorities managed to evacuate people from low lying coastal areas. I'll post updates on the aftermath of Saomai - sadly i think it's going to be really grim! Hang tight in Ningbo Craig, if this had happened a month from now I'd have been able to head down to Fujian/ Zhejiang boarder and check it out! Meanwhile eyes on 92W, JTWC forecast a "fair" chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 24hrs.

Saomai has intensified into a real belter! When this makes landfall on Eastern China all hell is going to break loose!! The eye is starting to show up on Taiwanese radar. The link is below, click on the radar tab about half way down on the left: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/index.htm I also highly recommend checking out the latest sat image on the website below for Saomai, it is very beautiful! http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Fingers crossed the carnage isn't too bad in China!